by connecticuter » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:08 pm
Jacked Camry wrote:connecticuter wrote:
If you dig into the article, it becomes clear that those findings are connected with two things. The reluctance of the intelligence agencies to get it wrong this time around. Also, the various agencies have gotten very little intel since 2007.
Essentially, they just do not know.
However, what is clear, Iran is building the capability to build nuclear weapons: that is a fact. It is also a fact that they will not let inspectors into Parchin, which is where analysists suspect that they have been working on a nuclear system trigger. It is also a fact that they are enriching uranium in a facility built in a mountain 250 feet under granite: nothing supsicious there.
So, you juxtapose that the intelligence agencies "just do not know" what's going on with Iran and whether they're building a bomb with "what is clear, Iran is building the capacity to build nuclear weapons, that is a fact". Okay. So it's "no logic" time then, is it? Or opposite day? Or what?
No doubt your discerning mind sharpened by the graduate degree in Philosophy trumps whatever nonsense the 16 US intelligence agencies have at their disposal.
Sorry JC, you don't seem to understand the distinction being made: maybe you didn't read all the articles posted. (That was written in a friendly non-dickish tone.) Think of it like a garage. Your neighbor has built a garage, he has assembled enough tools and parts to build a car. He has the capability to build a car. The question is, is it his intention to build a car or not. Further, you are not able to get a complete view of the interior of the garage; thus, from the actions you have seen, you are unable to determine if he is infact building a car. What would be clear is his capability and not his intention.
In the case of Iran, the evidence from Parchin, Qom, and other sites, is that they are essentially now capable of building a nuclear device (not imediately, of course). The intelligence agencies are basically saying that they cannot determine if the Iranians have started to build a device or if they intend to build a device (as opposed to just holding onto the capability for a "rainy day").
This distinction is an important one. Both the Israelis and the Obama administration agree that the Iranians have the capability, both seem to agree that the Iranians have not started to actually build a bomb yet; although, the are not sure, hence the desire for inspections. The disagreement between the US and the Israelis seems to be centered on two issues. The US is being agnostic on the issue of intent, while the Israelis hold that the Iranians do infact intend to build a weapon. Second, the US and Israel seem to disagree about when it would be too late to stop the Iranians if/when they decided to utilize their capability. The US seems to think there is much more time before the zone of immunity is reached. Whereas the Israelis seem to think it is close at hand.
[quote="Jacked Camry"][quote="connecticuter"]
If you dig into the article, it becomes clear that those findings are connected with two things. The reluctance of the intelligence agencies to get it wrong this time around. Also, the various agencies have gotten very little intel since 2007. [b]Essentially, they just do not know.[/b]
[b]However, what is clear, Iran is building the capability to build nuclear weapons: that is a fact.[/b] It is also a fact that they will not let inspectors into Parchin, which is where analysists suspect that they have been working on a nuclear system trigger. It is also a fact that they are enriching uranium in a facility built in a mountain 250 feet under granite: nothing supsicious there. :lol:[/quote]
So, you juxtapose that the intelligence agencies "just do not know" what's going on with Iran and whether they're building a bomb with "what is clear, Iran is building the capacity to build nuclear weapons, that is a fact". Okay. So it's "no logic" time then, is it? Or opposite day? Or what?
No doubt your discerning mind sharpened by the graduate degree in Philosophy trumps whatever nonsense the 16 US intelligence agencies have at their disposal.[/quote]
Sorry JC, you don't seem to understand the distinction being made: maybe you didn't read all the articles posted. (That was written in a friendly non-dickish tone.) Think of it like a garage. Your neighbor has built a garage, he has assembled enough tools and parts to build a car. He has the capability to build a car. The question is, is it his intention to build a car or not. Further, you are not able to get a complete view of the interior of the garage; thus, from the actions you have seen, you are unable to determine if he is infact building a car. What would be clear is his capability and not his intention.
In the case of Iran, the evidence from Parchin, Qom, and other sites, is that they are essentially now capable of building a nuclear device (not imediately, of course). The intelligence agencies are basically saying that they cannot determine if the Iranians have started to build a device or if they intend to build a device (as opposed to just holding onto the capability for a "rainy day").
This distinction is an important one. Both the Israelis and the Obama administration agree that the Iranians have the capability, both seem to agree that the Iranians have not started to actually build a bomb yet; although, the are not sure, hence the desire for inspections. The disagreement between the US and the Israelis seems to be centered on two issues. The US is being agnostic on the issue of intent, while the Israelis hold that the Iranians do infact intend to build a weapon. Second, the US and Israel seem to disagree about when it would be too late to stop the Iranians if/when they decided to utilize their capability. The US seems to think there is much more time before the zone of immunity is reached. Whereas the Israelis seem to think it is close at hand.