If one has the time; a very good read,
This thesis explores the cause of the southern Thailand insurgency and the possibility that international terrorist
groups have become involved in it. The insurgency began as an ethnic struggle by Malay Muslims for independence
from predominantly Buddhist Thailand. But with the advent of the “global war on terrorism,” some scholars believe it
has become an increasingly religious one. They fear that if the insurgency has become Islamist, it will attract support
from international terrorist groups, which will bring funds, training, and ideology to the already violent conflict. This
thesis investigates these possibilities. It finds that Islam has grown in importance, but the struggle remains driven
primarily by ethnic separatist, not religious, aims. Since it remains ethnic in nature, international terrorists have not
taken a significant role in the movement. The ideological gap between them and the insurgents remains too wide.
Nevertheless, it is worth monitoring the situation as the danger of international terrorists becoming involved exists if
the insurgency becomes a religious struggle.
One of the major problems in the literature dealing with the southern Thailand
insurgency is the interpretation of the cause of the violence. Almost all scholars agree
that religion and ethnicity are involved at some level, but recommended measures to stop
the conflict depend on which one an author interprets as the main source of the violence.
The problem with misidentifying the root of the insurgency is that, in either case,
the conflict will be prolonged, and more people will die. If the scholars who favor an
ethnic interpretation of the insurgency are wrong, then the potential for actual links to
international terrorism exist, and appropriate steps must be taken to end this connection
and keep the insurgency local until it can be resolved. However, if the scholars who
believe that religious differences are the main motivation are wrong, then counterinsurgency
policies should not be directed against religious networks; if they are, they
may actually encourage assistance from international terrorist groups.
go down to page 21 2. Involvement of Foreign Elements
A significant group of authors believes that the southern Thailand insurgency
receives material support from foreign terrorists, while another influential group believes
that there is limited and indirect support from foreign terrorists
The majority of the authors in the field believe that the insurgency is rooted in
ethnicity, with religion being an important aspect of the problem. Since the insurgency is
believed to be rooted in ethnic separatism, it seems unlikely the fighters would welcome
help from transnational terrorists who could bring following eyes from much larger
nations like the United States with them
A drastically different view emphasizes the religious nature of the conflict in
southern Thailand and argues that international terrorist support is highly integrated into
many aspects of the southern Thai insurgency. This school argues that the violence must
be reined in by controlling the international terrorist support.
the conflict is extremely localized and has not spread to Western/American targets. plus,
the CIA and other powerful intelligence agencies had been actively tracking international
terrorists in Thailand since at least 1998 when the CIA warned of a Pakistani threat to
American interests in Thailand.42 With over a decade of intelligence collecting, there is
still no hard proof that international terrorist groups are connected to the Malay Muslim
insurgency.
and read his conclusion starting on page 28
All analysts recognize that the Malays in southern Thailand are
generally Muslim, but they differ over the role that Islam plays in motivating violent
actions against Thai security forces and Thai civilians
Determining the presence of international terrorist groups in the southern
Thailand insurgency is critical to bringing peace to the region because policy makers
must know who they are fighting and what motivates them to continue. It is also
important to distinguish between the members of Al Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah, or other
terrorist groups that may be using Thailand because of its permissive environment for
various criminal activities and the militants in the south. The presence of these
international terrorists within the borders of Thailand does not necessarily draw the
conclusion that they are aiding the southern fighter. It is unlikely that international
terrorist directly support efforts in the south, but southern militants have gone to train
overseas.
http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=718987
I also have wondered why it has not reached the island of Phuket or traveled further north than Hat Yai, Perhaps they do realize that a bali style bombing in Patong will draw unnecessary attention that they do not wish.
Having made a few trips around south Thailand in the last few months ( from Ranong to Betong) one sees many more mosques in the area an many more Moslem people out an about. I live in a predominately Moslem village on Phuket and in the past few years see more and more youth are wearing the traditional headscarf in the area, as a way of setting themselves apart from their Buddhist neighbors or in support of their brothers further south i cant say. Many long time expats are worried when it will reach here.
"We are turning into a nation of whimpering slaves to Fear—fear of war, fear of poverty, fear of random terrorism, or suddenly getting locked up in a military detention camp on vague charges of being a Terrorist sympathizer." HST