GBP vs USD in a downturn?
- spitthedog
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GBP vs USD in a downturn?
Never traded currencies but GBPUSD doesn't hold up too well in a crisis does it? But it's well beaten up after the Brexit vote;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GBP ... 0677072337
The USD index has been in a downtrend since the start of the year. All whilst inflation expectations have been falling and U.S bond yields recently rising quite sharply. I was scratching my head but thinking maybe the fall is to do with foreign yield spreads narrowing making overseas markets more attractive than before ;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST ... 5226149114
So the well beaten up GBP vs the traditional safe haven USD if we got a full on bear market?
The world would still rush for usd denominated debt in such a situation no?? Dunno.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GBP ... 0677072337
The USD index has been in a downtrend since the start of the year. All whilst inflation expectations have been falling and U.S bond yields recently rising quite sharply. I was scratching my head but thinking maybe the fall is to do with foreign yield spreads narrowing making overseas markets more attractive than before ;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST ... 5226149114
So the well beaten up GBP vs the traditional safe haven USD if we got a full on bear market?
The world would still rush for usd denominated debt in such a situation no?? Dunno.
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
As somebody who regularly has to send money to the UK, all I can say is - long may it continue!
Meum est propositum in taberna mori,
ut sint Guinness proxima morientis ori.
tunc cantabunt letius angelorum chori:
"Sit Deus propitius huic potatori."
ut sint Guinness proxima morientis ori.
tunc cantabunt letius angelorum chori:
"Sit Deus propitius huic potatori."
spitthedog wrote:Never traded currencies but GBPUSD doesn't hold up too well in a crisis does it? But it's well beaten up after the Brexit vote;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GBP ... 0677072337
The USD index has been in a downtrend since the start of the year. All whilst inflation expectations have been falling and U.S bond yields recently rising quite sharply. I was scratching my head but thinking maybe the fall is to do with foreign yield spreads narrowing making overseas markets more attractive than before ;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST ... 5226149114
So the well beaten up GBP vs the traditional safe haven USD if we got a full on bear market?
The world would still rush for usd denominated debt in such a situation no?? Dunno.
Your title is a bit misleading. The fact is both currencies are weaker, and I suspect that is much more due to uncertainty than any technical reason. Both countries have uncertain political and economic futures - the UK because of no-one having a clue what Brexit looks like, and the US because of that fool in the White House and the political vacuum that will be created if and when he is removed.
Both are in a race downwards.
And as a Brit, isn't it somewhat irksome that May is clearly going to make sure Great Britain will win that race, even though she's actually a career politician and the other guy is just a total f---ng moron?scobienz wrote:Both are in a race downwards.
Meum est propositum in taberna mori,
ut sint Guinness proxima morientis ori.
tunc cantabunt letius angelorum chori:
"Sit Deus propitius huic potatori."
ut sint Guinness proxima morientis ori.
tunc cantabunt letius angelorum chori:
"Sit Deus propitius huic potatori."
I'm not so sure of that. May is proving intractably stupid, but I have faith that there is enough sense in the likes of Hammond and moderate conservatives to pull things around. It's becoming increasingly clear there will be no hard brexit now, so i have a smidgeon of faith left in the concept of common sense in the UK.
Unfortunately, I have no such faith in the US.
Unfortunately, I have no such faith in the US.
- Lucky Lucan
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Spigzy wrote:And as a Brit, isn't it somewhat irksome that May is clearly going to make sure Great Britain will win that race, even though she's actually a career politician and the other guy is just a total f---ng moron?scobienz wrote:Both are in a race downwards.
This is probably more relevant nowadays:
Warning - this film is very heavy and watching it will probably result in mild PTSD.
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- spitthedog
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I realize that i'm forever blowing bubbles, but the USD and USD denominated U.S government debt has historically been the safe haven when the last two major bear markets kicked in. I'm struggling to see why next time will be any different?? U.S Government debt is still yielding more than all other major developed nations aswell no?scobienz wrote:spitthedog wrote:Never traded currencies but GBPUSD doesn't hold up too well in a crisis does it? But it's well beaten up after the Brexit vote;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GBP ... 0677072337
The USD index has been in a downtrend since the start of the year. All whilst inflation expectations have been falling and U.S bond yields recently rising quite sharply. I was scratching my head but thinking maybe the fall is to do with foreign yield spreads narrowing making overseas markets more attractive than before ;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST ... 5226149114
So the well beaten up GBP vs the traditional safe haven USD if we got a full on bear market?
The world would still rush for usd denominated debt in such a situation no?? Dunno.
Your title is a bit misleading. The fact is both currencies are weaker, and I suspect that is much more due to uncertainty than any technical reason. Both countries have uncertain political and economic futures - the UK because of no-one having a clue what Brexit looks like, and the US because of that fool in the White House and the political vacuum that will be created if and when he is removed.
Both are in a race downwards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD ... 2184713164
So where else would there be to go?
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
No, Beer!RBD wrote:I doubt the dollar will hugely tank but if it does - gold?
Actually if the USD does tank, GBP seems like a good investment.
Bright future once we shake off the shackles of the EU.
- Jamie_Lambo
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the exchange rates up to 1.32ish now aint it, much better than end of last year
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LithiumRBD wrote:I doubt the dollar will hugely tank but if it does - gold?
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Cocaine104 wrote:LithiumRBD wrote:I doubt the dollar will hugely tank but if it does - gold?
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