connecticuter wrote:This distinction is an important one. Both the Israelis and the Obama administration agree that the Iranians have the capability, both seem to agree that the Iranians have not started to actually build a bomb yet; although, the are not sure, hence the desire for inspections. The disagreement between the US and the Israelis seems to be centered on two issues. The US is being agnostic on the issue of intent, while the Israelis hold that the Iranians do infact intend to build a weapon. Second, the US and Israel seem to disagree about when it would be too late to stop the Iranians if/when they decided to utilize their capability. The US seems to think there is much more time before the zone of immunity is reached. Whereas the Israelis seem to think it is close at hand.
I have no trust whatsoever in the likelihood of the US or Israel to state anything truth-related in regards to Iran or, actually, anything else in which they have a vested interest. If you haven't reached that point yet, it means you haven't been paying very close attention to the world news over the last several decades.
While it isn't a very pleasant prospect to have nutty religious people in charge of nuclear weapons, it's already the case when you look at the USA and Israel. Yet nobody has listened to the voices inside their head and dropped one on their enemies as yet - deterrence is still a valid strategic doctrine.
I personally think it would be quite interesting to see what changes should Iran manage to build a nuke. Why shouldn't they, given that Israel did in violation of the same agreements that they're using to bludgeon the Iranians with? The Iranians are exactly the same people who have the bomb today, convinced utterly of their God being the one true God, certain that they're in the right, and very unlikely to test out these hypotheses via nuclear explosion. It is often the case that one must be pushed to extremes to expose what is an obvious truth - nobody should have this capability and the whole prospect is nonsensical. Even the US has come to realize they should take their arsenal down to around 300 nukes because the rest is, literally, overkill.
This is the same philosophy by the way that makes me somewhat wish that Ron Paul wins the US election. He's a bit of a nut too, but he's a wild card, and would no doubt introduce some serious change into an ossified system so could well be the best thing that could happen to the USA.