ASEAN Economic Community Integration
ASEAN Economic Community Integration
Will the AEC be a net positive for Cambodia as a whole or merely benefit the Oknhas? Will Cambodia get more FDI from her neighbors? Will management positions be filled by more skilled foreign workers? Are Cambodian businesses ready to compete with foreign businesses? How many Khmer businesses know about the AEC, much less the new regulations they'll need to comply with? Are any of you lot making changes at your places of employment?
-
- 20,000 Posts; I need professional help !
- Reactions: 2
- Posts: 22651
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:31 pm
- Location: Space, maaaan
Ain't gonna happen. No one in ASEAN (bar Singapore) is anywhere near ready. Rest easy.
I came, I argued, I'm out
When you say it isnt going to happen, what do you mean Andy?
If you mean a big bang of completely open borders or even a single currency then, no, of course not. They're miles away from ready. If you mean duties being cut, labour laws allowing freedom of movement being relaxed etc, it doesn't seem like such a tall order to me.
If you mean a big bang of completely open borders or even a single currency then, no, of course not. They're miles away from ready. If you mean duties being cut, labour laws allowing freedom of movement being relaxed etc, it doesn't seem like such a tall order to me.
-
- 20,000 Posts; I need professional help !
- Reactions: 2
- Posts: 22651
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:31 pm
- Location: Space, maaaan
You're more informed than I am Scoobs, so I'll let you take up the gauntlet!
I came, I argued, I'm out
- vladimir
- Feminist Watch List
- Reactions: 4
- Posts: 34235
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:43 am
- Location: mod edit
I agree, but one nagging thought remains: duties equal money. I don't recall many times the machine was stopped voluntarily. Where will the alternate supply come from?scobienz wrote:When you say it isnt going to happen, what do you mean Andy?
If you mean a big bang of completely open borders or even a single currency then, no, of course not. They're miles away from ready. If you mean duties being cut, labour laws allowing freedom of movement being relaxed etc, it doesn't seem like such a tall order to me.
ירי ילדים והפצצת אזרחים דורש אומץ, כמו גם הטרדה מינית של עובדי ההוראה.
Firstly from not having to pay to pay duties on goods being exported so the duties regime is equalised down. Secondly the freer movement of goods and investment and capital etc caused by the removal of tariffs and red tape will in theory generate more economic activity which in turn generates greater prosperity which in turn means more inflows into the public purse.
That's the theory at least. How it works in a SEA context is another matter.
My hunch is that it will kick off in late December in a staggered way. There has already been a lot of work done by different ASEAN groups to develop all kinds of agreements which aren't sexy or news worthy but are essential to AEC.
That's the theory at least. How it works in a SEA context is another matter.
My hunch is that it will kick off in late December in a staggered way. There has already been a lot of work done by different ASEAN groups to develop all kinds of agreements which aren't sexy or news worthy but are essential to AEC.
- vladimir
- Feminist Watch List
- Reactions: 4
- Posts: 34235
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:43 am
- Location: mod edit
I can't see customs officials being enchanted with the idea.
Khmers can compete in terms of English proficiency with the Thaisand Vietnamese, but their competitiveness ends there in most fields I'm thinking of.
I odn't see it going smoothly, quite teh opposite, we can expect many 'leave the European Union style protests'.
Khmers can compete in terms of English proficiency with the Thaisand Vietnamese, but their competitiveness ends there in most fields I'm thinking of.
I odn't see it going smoothly, quite teh opposite, we can expect many 'leave the European Union style protests'.
ירי ילדים והפצצת אזרחים דורש אומץ, כמו גם הטרדה מינית של עובדי ההוראה.
Xtreme I'll need an executive summary by Monday next week before you see a cent from me.
Scobienz I think it will be interesting to see how rice imports/exports are altered. Will lower priced imports affect farmers so negatively that they can't benefit from cheaper food prices? Maybe it will drive more of the from the fields to factories in Cambodia or elsewhere.
Andy I definitely agree that few countries are ready but the implementation will be an evolutionary experience rather than revolutionary. It'll be interesting to see the what the pace of change will be in some industries vs. others. It's hard to find mention of Cambodia and the AEC abroad so I was wondering if there's talk of it on the ground.
Scobienz I think it will be interesting to see how rice imports/exports are altered. Will lower priced imports affect farmers so negatively that they can't benefit from cheaper food prices? Maybe it will drive more of the from the fields to factories in Cambodia or elsewhere.
Andy I definitely agree that few countries are ready but the implementation will be an evolutionary experience rather than revolutionary. It'll be interesting to see the what the pace of change will be in some industries vs. others. It's hard to find mention of Cambodia and the AEC abroad so I was wondering if there's talk of it on the ground.
- ali baba
- "Suit up!"
- Reactions: 12
- Posts: 2982
- Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:46 am
- Location: Equadorian Embassy
That 'theory' has been proven wrong by every country that has successfully industrialised and China, with its capital controls, currency manipulation and tariffs, is the current model of industrialisation for many countries around the world.scobienz wrote:Firstly from not having to pay to pay duties on goods being exported so the duties regime is equalised down. Secondly the freer movement of goods and investment and capital etc caused by the removal of tariffs and red tape will in theory generate more economic activity which in turn generates greater prosperity which in turn means more inflows into the public purse.
That's the theory at least. How it works in a SEA context is another matter.
As an LDC Cambodia is privy to the Everything but Arms tariff exemptions in Europe and local industry, current and potential, would be undercut by cheap imports. Not to mention that import taxes are the easiest to collect.
ASEAN will keep inching towards integration in a staggered poorly planned manner. I get the impression most leaders place a low priority on integrating and are happy to gravitate towards whoever has the bigger briefcase full of money.My hunch is that it will kick off in late December in a staggered way. There has already been a lot of work done by different ASEAN groups to develop all kinds of agreements which aren't sexy or news worthy but are essential to AEC.
There was an interesting article in The SEA Globe saying that high speed rail developed by China will cause a fracture between mainland ASEAN and maritime ASEAN as inter-ASEAN transportation infrastructure is lacking.
The development of an extensive rail network is of great strategic importance to China as it tries to expand its economic footprint. “With the eventual completion of a Kunming-Singapore HSR line, Kunming will be directly connected to all the major capitals of Southeast Asia, which will greatly facilitate the flow of people between China and the major Southeast Asian trade and finance centres. This line will form a transport backbone for mainland Southeast Asia, extending into the maritime realm and will further draw this region into the southern Chinese economy. It will accelerate the process by which Kunming will become the de facto capital of mainland Southeast Asia,” said Geoffrey Wade, a visiting fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
Wade warns that China’s influence has implications for Asean, particularly as member states move towards integration by 2015.
“This process of developing HSR across mainland Southeast Asia has only just begun, but the long-term effects aren’t difficult to assess… connectivity between mainland Southeast Asia and southern China is growing much faster than intra-Asean connectivity, and the strategic geography of East Asia is thereby being changed forever.
“Driven by high-speed rail networks, new roads and telecoms facilities centred on Kunming, together with China’s burgeoning economic engagement… mainland Southeast Asia is in the process of disconnecting from maritime Southeast Asia. This will, almost inevitably, result in Asean dividing along this fault line,” said Wade.
http://sea-globe.com/aboard-laos-rail-c ... east-asia/
Last edited by ali baba on Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
C'mere c'meye
vladimir wrote:I can't see customs officials being enchanted with the idea.
Khmers can compete in terms of English proficiency with the Thaisand Vietnamese, but their competitiveness ends there in most fields I'm thinking of.
I odn't see it going smoothly, quite teh opposite, we can expect many 'leave the European Union style protests'.
One of the Cambodia's key advantages is the relatively low cost of labour, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Cambodia position itself as the low-end manufacturing hub for companies within ASEAN, rather than outside as currently. The place I work at is regularly getting enquiries from companies in Thailand etc already looking at moving factories here; with AEC providing fewer restrictions on intra-ASEAN FDI and more ease of moving goods across borders, this could play to Cambodia's benefit greatly.
But I agree it isn't going to be smooth. It's actually very complicated, and there is already a lot of wriggle room for some ASEAN members within the three broad agreements which, together, form the pillars of AEC. One of those pillars, for example, is ATIGA or the ASEAN Trade In Goods Agreement. This is basically a super agreement bringing together all the various current bilateral agreements on trading between ASEAN countries, with a view to drastically limiting tariffs between trading members. This agreement has certain milestones at which tariffs should be lowered by how much and by when, but Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam were granted more flexibility in reaching those targets.
So whoever it was who said progress will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary a few threads ago is spot on, in my view.
Incidentally, the other two pillars of AEC in addition to ATIGA are the ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) which is little more than a guiding framework for how investment should be promoted and protected, and ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS).
You only need to look to previous international treaties and agreements that Cambodia has signed up to and how they were handled to know what strategy Cambodia will implement to deal with the AEC. If you look at how they handled the Intellectual Property Treaty - they sign up - they plead difficulties because of poverty - they negotiate special dispensation - they use this as leverage to gain donor funds from wealthier countries to address the issue - make a small show of falling into line with the agreement - business as usual!
It is not the formal revenue that the Cambodian Government will be worried about losing it is the informal revenues, particularly the customs tea money, that they will worry about. It is the Laissez-faire attitude to government officers corruption that props this regime up the ruling elite will not want to see their supporter based lose their opportunity to make an illegal buck out of the government positions they have paid to get.
It is not the formal revenue that the Cambodian Government will be worried about losing it is the informal revenues, particularly the customs tea money, that they will worry about. It is the Laissez-faire attitude to government officers corruption that props this regime up the ruling elite will not want to see their supporter based lose their opportunity to make an illegal buck out of the government positions they have paid to get.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
― Christopher Hitchens
-
- Similar Topics
- Replies
- Views
- Last post
-
-
Three star general steals Chinese state-owned Kampot Special Economic Zone land
by Bong Burgundy » Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:48 pm » in Cambodia News - 12 Replies
- 3946 Views
-
Last post by Visser
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:59 am
-
-
- 4 Replies
- 799 Views
-
Last post by Orichá
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:42 am
-
- 26 Replies
- 6591 Views
-
Last post by Dahon
Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:46 pm
-
- 8 Replies
- 2627 Views
-
Last post by Lucky Lucan
Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:38 pm
-
-
ASEAN goes ahead with naval exercise w/o Cambodia/Myanmar
by Sonic1 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:41 pm » in Cambodia News - 0 Replies
- 1271 Views
-
Last post by Sonic1
Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:41 pm
-