by LexusSchmexus » Sun Jun 19, 2016 8:59 pm
Jep wrote:LexusSchmexus.
Please tell why do you think the bubble will burst in the next 5 years? Interesting forethought.
Please take note: I'm not pretending to be an expert or anything. Not that it matters that much anyways, as the majority of so called experts can't predict crashes either. But here's my theory: prices have sky-rocketed in the past few years as bong thoms buy up the whole country, as well as the middle-class and even villagers buy land in previously "undeveloped" areas. At the same time, mortgages have started being used more widely, especially by the middle-class. This only started in the past three or four years I'd say. Prior to that most of the transactions were cash. Now I reckon the percentage (especially in the PP area) is MUCH higher.
No one knows when the next crash will come, but it'll come. They always do, of course. Let's say China, the US or EU somehow start a small global meltdown, the tremors will be felt here. Before mortgages were issued here, they were somewhat isolated. However, now that banks are loaning big money on (in my opinion) overpriced land, condos and so on, when the crunch comes it's going to hit hard. Prices can't keep on rocketing on to European prices when the local wages can't keep up. Take this with a grain of salt, but I've also been told that the banks here loan out a higher percentage of their holdings than they're supposed to. Not necessarily true, but knowing Cambodia, it wouldn't surprise me one bit. When the deck of cards comes down, it'll come down. Long-term it's still good, as Cambodia has nowhere to go but up. However, a LOT of these new developments and boreys are just being bought with the idea of flipping. But now that everyone has caught on and is trying to flip land, I think it'll drop massively once they realize getting rid of it (for the prices they envisioned) is harder than expected. Especially when the banks come knocking on the door (hopefully, because if some go bust it'll be a much bigger issue). Either way, it'll be a buyer's market once that happens... BTW, I've always been bull on land here. I've bought and sold real estate before, but I don't like the way things are happening lately, especially on the outskirts of the city. Tons of lots are sold, but NOTHING is happening. Something's amiss.
[quote="Jep"]LexusSchmexus.
Please tell why do you think the bubble will burst in the next 5 years? Interesting forethought.[/quote]
Please take note: I'm not pretending to be an expert or anything. Not that it matters that much anyways, as the majority of so called experts can't predict crashes either. But here's my theory: prices have sky-rocketed in the past few years as bong thoms buy up the whole country, as well as the middle-class and even villagers buy land in previously "undeveloped" areas. At the same time, mortgages have started being used more widely, especially by the middle-class. This only started in the past three or four years I'd say. Prior to that most of the transactions were cash. Now I reckon the percentage (especially in the PP area) is MUCH higher.
No one knows when the next crash will come, but it'll come. They always do, of course. Let's say China, the US or EU somehow start a small global meltdown, the tremors will be felt here. Before mortgages were issued here, they were somewhat isolated. However, now that banks are loaning big money on (in my opinion) overpriced land, condos and so on, when the crunch comes it's going to hit hard. Prices can't keep on rocketing on to European prices when the local wages can't keep up. Take this with a grain of salt, but I've also been told that the banks here loan out a higher percentage of their holdings than they're supposed to. Not necessarily true, but knowing Cambodia, it wouldn't surprise me one bit. When the deck of cards comes down, it'll come down. Long-term it's still good, as Cambodia has nowhere to go but up. However, a LOT of these new developments and boreys are just being bought with the idea of flipping. But now that everyone has caught on and is trying to flip land, I think it'll drop massively once they realize getting rid of it (for the prices they envisioned) is harder than expected. Especially when the banks come knocking on the door (hopefully, because if some go bust it'll be a much bigger issue). Either way, it'll be a buyer's market once that happens... BTW, I've always been bull on land here. I've bought and sold real estate before, but I don't like the way things are happening lately, especially on the outskirts of the city. Tons of lots are sold, but NOTHING is happening. Something's amiss.