by LTO » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:38 pm
I was, for a little while, leaning toward the latter 'prepping for 2018' scenario, that this change is just HS picking his moment to throw off the facade of mutual cooperation and revert to true old-style form in anticipation of the elections. But a couple things have bothered me about this formulation, especially in light of the arrest of the Senator a couple weeks ago, the subsequent comments from both sides, and now today Rainsy telling his people to lay off the VN issue and fall in line. One glaring problem with the 'prepping scenario' is that it relies on Rainsy and his party being no more than passive objects - dupish, naive, cowered and impotent, and Hun Sen the only real political actor in Cambodia. (In fact a lot of anti-HS political analysis relies on this general format - Cambodians as weak, dumb cowards, mere toys in the hands of HS's masterful evil, but that is a different issue.) Another problem with the 'prepping scenario' is that it doesn't explain Rainsy's reaction to the various arrests and harsh words from HS. Up to now Rainsy has said and done almost nothing in response. Even if Rainsy and his people really were impotent idiots, they should still be protesting what's happening, but they are not. What Rainsy has said seems weak and conciliatory, still talking about the CoD, and now admonishing his own people to pipe down on the VN issue. So what's going on? I see several possibilities:
1. Maybe Rainsy really is impotent, has been duped, and is unable to fight back. He's just a clown and a punching bag. For the moment, I am willing to reject this explanation out of hand because I do not believe Rainsy and the opposition are that stupid - that they couldn't see this sort of thing coming, that they had no plan, that they just naively took HS at his word, and now are as lambs being lead to the slaughter. Rainsy is smarter than this.
2. Gandhi and Jesus – Perhaps, confident that CNRP will win in 2018 regardless, they are willing to let themselves be martyred a little in order to shame HS and claim moral superiority both now and in 2018, while remaining in the game until then. But if this is the strategy they should be saying a lot more and making as big a show as possible of their persecution. Yet they are not, instead Rainsy is still talking about the CoD, how they need to negotiate with the HS, and how they need to lay off the border issue. Real martyrs don't go quietly, nor do they bargain with the devil.
3. As suggested by some others, perhaps Rainsy, in his greed and lust for power, is complicit with Hun Sen. I'm also going to reject this explanation out of hand as just too cynical. Rainsy may be a racist, and a political animal, and a bit weak-kneed, but I do not see him selling out his stated principles, his party and Cambodia for a few pieces of silver. I just don't see that in his character. He may be political, and a nationalist, but he is also an honorable man. Maybe I have read him wrong, but I don't think so, and any explanation that relies on him being so venal as to jump in bed with HS for a little money and power cannot be correct (or at least not the whole story.)
4. Rainsy is partially complicit. Perhaps Rainsy can’t control his own people and/or factions, and is willing to tacitly work with HS to bring them in line. Perhaps he is even letting HS do some of his dirty work for him, destroying political enemies within his party and scaring the rest into line. Rainsy may see this as a particularly effective and economical long-game strategy, especially if he is confident of winning the next election regardless. First he lets HS do the work of cleaning up his party for him, leaving him the undisputed leader of his party, then he ousts HS by winning the election. Actually, this is a pretty neat explanation, if Rainsy really is that much of a player, which he may be.
5. Culture of Dialog. Perhaps both HS and Rainsy are being honest in what they have said publicly recently. In reference to the border problem, just after the arrest of the Senator, Hun Sen said “why does Rainsy say one thing but his people do another.” What does he mean by that? Perhaps, as suggested in the first scenario, Rainsy and HS had a deal, some ground rules that sat at the foundation of the CoD, including avoiding the border issue, probably in exchange for certain concessions by HS (e.g releasing the activists, rounding up Vietnamese, stricter law enforcement, etc). Rainsy, knowing the agreed ground rules, believes this most recent breakdown stems, in some part, from his side's violation of the those rules when they started agitating at the border - that CNRP fired the first shot and HS is firing back over this violation, and not just effecting an old-style thuggish election strategy. This is why Rainsy has not been firing back - he believes this is in part their fault and doesn't want to shut the door by escalating the fight. As Rainsy believes the CoD is the best way forward to 2017 and 2018, he wants to mend the CoD, which means reining in his people on the border issue to try to restore the ground rules. And that is what he seems to be doing. (Which is not to say that the attacks by HS are not part of a larger old-style election strategy, only that it was not the spark, nor the primary reason for it. The implication being that there is the potential for a resolution which would not exist if this was merely election strategy.)
At this point I favor this last scenario. It takes the major players at their word and as intelligent, competent men; it explains both HS's and Rainsy's actions and words of late; it explains the timing of HS's attacks (which are way too early if 2018 were the only consideration); and it explain's Rainsy's call to his people today to 'fall in line with the party leadership and cease attacking the ruling CPP on issues concerning the border with Vietnam.'
The former half of that statement by Rainsy hints at one more aspect of confrontation I have been wondering about. Why, if the party leader is trying to maintain the CoD (and the ground rules of that dialogue), are his people out protesting at the border, waiving around maps and stuff? Were they unaware of the deal? Are these just over-enthusiastic party members letting their nationalism get the better of them, or are they perhaps a faction(s) within the party actively attempting to subvert/sabotage Rainsy's detente with HS and the CoD? There are clearly opposition people out there who are more hardline than Rainsy, who took Rainsy and Sokha at their word when they promised "never to work with HS " and to drive the Vietnamese into the sea. In fact, some of them make Rainsy look like a moderate when it comes to Vietnam and HS. Could it be that these border protests by opposition people are aimed as much at Rainsy and the CoD as at Vietnam and Hun Sen?
I was, for a little while, leaning toward the latter 'prepping for 2018' scenario, that this change is just HS picking his moment to throw off the facade of mutual cooperation and revert to true old-style form in anticipation of the elections. But a couple things have bothered me about this formulation, especially in light of the arrest of the Senator a couple weeks ago, the subsequent comments from both sides, and now today Rainsy telling his people to lay off the VN issue and fall in line. One glaring problem with the 'prepping scenario' is that it relies on Rainsy and his party being no more than passive objects - dupish, naive, cowered and impotent, and Hun Sen the only real political actor in Cambodia. (In fact a lot of anti-HS political analysis relies on this general format - Cambodians as weak, dumb cowards, mere toys in the hands of HS's masterful evil, but that is a different issue.) Another problem with the 'prepping scenario' is that it doesn't explain Rainsy's reaction to the various arrests and harsh words from HS. Up to now Rainsy has said and done almost nothing in response. Even if Rainsy and his people really were impotent idiots, they should still be protesting what's happening, but they are not. What Rainsy has said seems weak and conciliatory, still talking about the CoD, and now admonishing his own people to pipe down on the VN issue. So what's going on? I see several possibilities:
1. Maybe Rainsy really is impotent, has been duped, and is unable to fight back. He's just a clown and a punching bag. For the moment, I am willing to reject this explanation out of hand because I do not believe Rainsy and the opposition are that stupid - that they couldn't see this sort of thing coming, that they had no plan, that they just naively took HS at his word, and now are as lambs being lead to the slaughter. Rainsy is smarter than this.
2. Gandhi and Jesus – Perhaps, confident that CNRP will win in 2018 regardless, they are willing to let themselves be martyred a little in order to shame HS and claim moral superiority both now and in 2018, while remaining in the game until then. But if this is the strategy they should be saying a lot more and making as big a show as possible of their persecution. Yet they are not, instead Rainsy is still talking about the CoD, how they need to negotiate with the HS, and how they need to lay off the border issue. Real martyrs don't go quietly, nor do they bargain with the devil.
3. As suggested by some others, perhaps Rainsy, in his greed and lust for power, is complicit with Hun Sen. I'm also going to reject this explanation out of hand as just too cynical. Rainsy may be a racist, and a political animal, and a bit weak-kneed, but I do not see him selling out his stated principles, his party and Cambodia for a few pieces of silver. I just don't see that in his character. He may be political, and a nationalist, but he is also an honorable man. Maybe I have read him wrong, but I don't think so, and any explanation that relies on him being so venal as to jump in bed with HS for a little money and power cannot be correct (or at least not the whole story.)
4. Rainsy is partially complicit. Perhaps Rainsy can’t control his own people and/or factions, and is willing to tacitly work with HS to bring them in line. Perhaps he is even letting HS do some of his dirty work for him, destroying political enemies within his party and scaring the rest into line. Rainsy may see this as a particularly effective and economical long-game strategy, especially if he is confident of winning the next election regardless. First he lets HS do the work of cleaning up his party for him, leaving him the undisputed leader of his party, then he ousts HS by winning the election. Actually, this is a pretty neat explanation, if Rainsy really is that much of a player, which he may be.
5. Culture of Dialog. Perhaps both HS and Rainsy are being honest in what they have said publicly recently. In reference to the border problem, just after the arrest of the Senator, Hun Sen said “why does Rainsy say one thing but his people do another.” What does he mean by that? Perhaps, as suggested in the first scenario, Rainsy and HS had a deal, some ground rules that sat at the foundation of the CoD, including avoiding the border issue, probably in exchange for certain concessions by HS (e.g releasing the activists, rounding up Vietnamese, stricter law enforcement, etc). Rainsy, knowing the agreed ground rules, believes this most recent breakdown stems, in some part, from his side's violation of the those rules when they started agitating at the border - that CNRP fired the first shot and HS is firing back over this violation, and not just effecting an old-style thuggish election strategy. This is why Rainsy has not been firing back - he believes this is in part their fault and doesn't want to shut the door by escalating the fight. As Rainsy believes the CoD is the best way forward to 2017 and 2018, he wants to mend the CoD, which means reining in his people on the border issue to try to restore the ground rules. And that is what he seems to be doing. (Which is not to say that the attacks by HS are not part of a larger old-style election strategy, only that it was not the spark, nor the primary reason for it. The implication being that there is the potential for a resolution which would not exist if this was merely election strategy.)
At this point I favor this last scenario. It takes the major players at their word and as intelligent, competent men; it explains both HS's and Rainsy's actions and words of late; it explains the timing of HS's attacks (which are way too early if 2018 were the only consideration); and it explain's Rainsy's call to his people today to 'fall in line with the party leadership and cease attacking the ruling CPP on issues concerning the border with Vietnam.'
The former half of that statement by Rainsy hints at one more aspect of confrontation I have been wondering about. Why, if the party leader is trying to maintain the CoD (and the ground rules of that dialogue), are his people out protesting at the border, waiving around maps and stuff? Were they unaware of the deal? Are these just over-enthusiastic party members letting their nationalism get the better of them, or are they perhaps a faction(s) within the party actively attempting to subvert/sabotage Rainsy's detente with HS and the CoD? There are clearly opposition people out there who are more hardline than Rainsy, who took Rainsy and Sokha at their word when they promised "never to work with HS " and to drive the Vietnamese into the sea. In fact, some of them make Rainsy look like a moderate when it comes to Vietnam and HS. Could it be that these border protests by opposition people are aimed as much at Rainsy and the CoD as at Vietnam and Hun Sen?