by kansaicanuck » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:34 am
jackrossi wrote:Felgerkarb wrote:Oldnews wrote:"Mr HE would be vulnerable, in other words, to a vigorous international campaign to induce him to restore democracy—he just does not expect one. That may be the most depressing development of all".
How? With the Great Northern Dragon supporting them...bah. Western nations really overestimate their importance in this region. Sick of it.
The majority of the industrial sector here is garment related, as well the the largest number of jobs. The main export markets are EU and Japan. China already makes his own clothes so almost all Chinese garment factories in the kingdom also export to the west or Japan.
The EU still applies favourable tariffs to Cambodia which give it the edge to compete with Vietnam as a garment manufacturing base. If the West decides to remove this special tariffs China just won't absorb to garment production, the main reason they have garment factories here is due to those special tariffs. Textile factories are very mobile unlike heavy industries and will move to another country in no time if they can't be profitable here. The garment sector becoming not profitable would be a huge blow to the Cambodian economy, it would create massive unemployment and the Chinese can't really do much about it. I am not sure about the political ramifications of such an event but from experience large numbers of unemployed people tend to vote for change and have little to loose from protesting without a welfare system.
Almost exactly my thoughts on this.
What do you think the chances of the EU making a change in direction regarding the recent political developments in Cambodia? News today is that Sweden, who has donated/invested something like 100 Million in recent years is not happy with Cambodia and are planning to review their relationship now. Rainsy, Sochua ect have been lobbying the EU and anyone who will listen to them as well.
The trouble is literally within days the only viable alternative to vote for will be squashed like a fly. Are we to believe that any of the remaing parties that will fill the power vacuum will be a viable opposition for the next election?
BTW, The local CPP guys have been making the rounds quite vigorously in recent days ive heard. Visiting homes unannounced and "asking" people to join the club if they haven't already and double checking their paperwork. This happened with my family last night. They were pretty unhappy about it and felt like there was nothing they could do.
[quote="jackrossi"][quote="Felgerkarb"][quote="Oldnews"]"Mr HE would be vulnerable, in other words, to a vigorous international campaign to induce him to restore democracy—he just does not expect one. That may be the most depressing development of all".[/quote]
How? With the Great Northern Dragon supporting them...bah. Western nations really overestimate their importance in this region. Sick of it.[/quote]
The majority of the industrial sector here is garment related, as well the the largest number of jobs. The main export markets are EU and Japan. China already makes his own clothes so almost all Chinese garment factories in the kingdom also export to the west or Japan.
The EU still applies favourable tariffs to Cambodia which give it the edge to compete with Vietnam as a garment manufacturing base. If the West decides to remove this special tariffs China just won't absorb to garment production, the main reason they have garment factories here is due to those special tariffs. Textile factories are very mobile unlike heavy industries and will move to another country in no time if they can't be profitable here. The garment sector becoming not profitable would be a huge blow to the Cambodian economy, it would create massive unemployment and the Chinese can't really do much about it. I am not sure about the political ramifications of such an event but from experience large numbers of unemployed people tend to vote for change and have little to loose from protesting without a welfare system.[/quote]
Almost exactly my thoughts on this.
What do you think the chances of the EU making a change in direction regarding the recent political developments in Cambodia? News today is that Sweden, who has donated/invested something like 100 Million in recent years is not happy with Cambodia and are planning to review their relationship now. Rainsy, Sochua ect have been lobbying the EU and anyone who will listen to them as well.
The trouble is literally within days the only viable alternative to vote for will be squashed like a fly. Are we to believe that any of the remaing parties that will fill the power vacuum will be a viable opposition for the next election?
BTW, The local CPP guys have been making the rounds quite vigorously in recent days ive heard. Visiting homes unannounced and "asking" people to join the club if they haven't already and double checking their paperwork. This happened with my family last night. They were pretty unhappy about it and felt like there was nothing they could do.