New coronavirus spreading rapidly.
- Dahon
- I live above an internet cafe
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Hysteria is taking off Saturn V style in Sweden, the world's greatest humanitarian superpower and most enlightened free love nation:
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/kinas- ... anker-oss/
The Chinese ambassador (for various reasons, a real piece of work) is irritated and says the "-Any action or opinion that in a harmful way associates the virus with a specific nation or people constitutes racial discrimination. It is immoral and violates human rights".
There are reports that people in Sweden avoids eating at Chinese restaurants out of fear of contracting the virus, there are even reports that pupils and teachers recommend other people to avoid pupils of Chinese descent to avoid contracting the virus. In one case a 13 yeat old way was even labelled "virus" by his classmates.
How's the situation in other countries across the globe? Equally Saturn V or worse?
Frankly, we need to invest more in primary education.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/kinas- ... anker-oss/
The Chinese ambassador (for various reasons, a real piece of work) is irritated and says the "-Any action or opinion that in a harmful way associates the virus with a specific nation or people constitutes racial discrimination. It is immoral and violates human rights".
There are reports that people in Sweden avoids eating at Chinese restaurants out of fear of contracting the virus, there are even reports that pupils and teachers recommend other people to avoid pupils of Chinese descent to avoid contracting the virus. In one case a 13 yeat old way was even labelled "virus" by his classmates.
How's the situation in other countries across the globe? Equally Saturn V or worse?
Frankly, we need to invest more in primary education.
Cambodia - tickets booked, moved on to mission planning DONE
Mission completed, reported to Col Braddock. DONE
Now ranting about the experience ONGOING
Mission completed, reported to Col Braddock. DONE
Now ranting about the experience ONGOING
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- MerkinMaker
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The media are also very big users of analytics, and you can guarantee that if you keep clicking and watching, they will keep producing new content to feed that demand.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:05 pmVery well put, sir. So, why are the media frightening everybody out of their wits with it? I have my own ideas, but it would be interesting to know what others think.
The media stopped prioritising news based on importance decades ago, it's a purely demand driven industry now.
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- Feminist Watch List
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The problem with such analysis is garbage in garbage out.starkmonster wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:35 pmI think we can all agree this is bad and that we feel sorry for everyone effected. But the hysteria now seems to have reached the point where people are scared for their own personal safety, so I thought I would do some "back of a fag packet" maths to put things back in perspective.
I do a lot of work with analytics and know that we humans are very good at detecting risk, but are very poor at quantifying it and prone to overreaction.
,...........
My hypothetical scenario worst case scenario is this: I/you/we were in the city of Wuhan (the epicentre) at the beginning of the outbreak and couldn't leave.
Some basic rules. It's worst case scenario, so we always round in the negative direction and any numbers that are yet unknown we will 10x (multiply by ten).
So as of today these are the numbers:
Wuhan population: 10,000,000 (round down)
Wuhan infections: 35,000 (round up)
Wuhan deaths: 750 (round up)
...........
From what I read half of the population of Wuhan left before the lockdown.
Also I am beginning to think - based on a few different news sources - that the official figures are about 1/10th of the actual numbers.
Add to that the incubation period and the fact that a carrier can spread it without symptoms, then your figures could be out by a factor of 10 to 20 times.
You think that only one person has it in Cambodia (official figures) ?????
Note to self: Must be nice to morons.
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- MerkinMaker
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I think you are missing the point of the exercise, this is about personal risk, not collective risk or global impact. And what it's saying is that even if you were in the worst possible spot on earth, on day zero, in relation to this outbreak, and even if it got 10 times worse there, statistically speaking the risk still isn't that high.
Regarding cooking the numbers, why would you do it, what is the incentive? They might be able to hide the number of infections, but they won't be able to hide the number of deaths to any great degree. And why would you want to hide the number of infections if your goal is to prevent panic (aka economic impact)?
If the ratio of deaths to infections decreases, that will reduce the panic as the disease looks less deadly, so if anything there would be an incentive to overstate the number of infections.
Regarding cooking the numbers, why would you do it, what is the incentive? They might be able to hide the number of infections, but they won't be able to hide the number of deaths to any great degree. And why would you want to hide the number of infections if your goal is to prevent panic (aka economic impact)?
If the ratio of deaths to infections decreases, that will reduce the panic as the disease looks less deadly, so if anything there would be an incentive to overstate the number of infections.
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Why would the Chinese cook the numbers?starkmonster wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:16 pmI think you are missing the point of the exercise, ...
Regarding cooking the numbers, why would you do it, what is the incentive? They might be able to hide the number of infections, but they won't be able to hide the number of deaths to any great degree. And why would you want to hide the number of infections if your goal is to prevent panic (aka economic impact)?
If the ratio of deaths to infections decreases, that will reduce the panic as the disease looks less deadly, so if anything there would be an incentive to overstate the number of infections.
Are you serious?
You cannot trust any official figures out of China.
You do understand that they control access to the internet right?
What happened to the people who tried to alert the world about this virus at the start?
Also, perhaps you should not focus on the death to infection rate at these early stages.
Why not look at the death to cured ratio? That ain't pretty. We are still in the early stages and it can take weeks to die.
Note to self: Must be nice to morons.
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- OneTrickPony
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That's what I think.starkmonster wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:37 pmThe media are also very big users of analytics, and you can guarantee that if you keep clicking and watching, they will keep producing new content to feed that demand.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:05 pmVery well put, sir. So, why are the media frightening everybody out of their wits with it? I have my own ideas, but it would be interesting to know what others think.
The media stopped prioritising news based on importance decades ago, it's a purely demand driven industry now.
Also, to put things into perspective a little more:
This from the WHO website
Pneumonia accounts for 15% of all deaths of children under 5 years old, killing
808,694 children in 2017.
Pneumonia can be caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi.
Pneumonia can be prevented by immunization, adequate nutrition, and by addressing environmental factors.
Pneumonia caused by bacteria can be treated with antibiotics, but only one third of children with pneumonia receive the antibiotics they need.
--------
Pneumonia - globally
Frequency
450 million (7%) per year
Deaths
Four million per year (?)
-------
According to the latest WHO data published in 2017 Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths in Cambodia reached 6,131 or 7.27% of total deaths. The age adjusted Death Rate is 57.85 per 100,000 of population ranks Cambodia #67 in the world.
Pneumonia is one of the big ten causes of global deaths, and also very worrying if it became non treatable even though two thirds of children infected with the bacterial version are not able to get access to antibiotics.
Adult LRI [pneumonia] sufferers are most likely to be affected by an existing condition of COPD
But it seems doctors are having success at treating the Corona virus and its atypical pneumonia. It is contracted in exactly the same way as viral pneumonia. So I can only presume it's as starkmonster suggests.
Up the workers!
I think tomorrow will be an important day in all this. It's the day that all the Chinamem are supposed to return to their satanic mills following the government directed one week extension of the new year holiday. If that happens, I think we'll see things begin to normalise next week. If it doesn't happen, if for example the government adds another week to the 'holiday', then it's hard to overstate the severity of the consequences for the global economy.
TheGrimReaper wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:45 pmSlavedog, you do not belong on this forum as you talk too much sense.
- Dahon
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There are efforts to make sure as many white collar workers as possible work from home. But of course factories will have a harder time. Zhejiang factories will probably not start working tomorrow. Shanghai is dominated by white collars so there the situation is easier.slavedog wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:14 amI think tomorrow will be an important day in all this. It's the day that all the Chinamem are supposed to return to their satanic mills following the government directed one week extension of the new year holiday. If that happens, I think we'll see things begin to normalise next week. If it doesn't happen, if for example the government adds another week to the 'holiday', then it's hard to overstate the severity of the consequences for the global economy.
To be fair, most factories built in the last 30 years or so are far from satanic mills, they often feature the latest in production equipment. For my company, the older European factories are much more unpleasant to work in with often worn facilities. Worker's rights and benefits can be a different story of course.
Cambodia - tickets booked, moved on to mission planning DONE
Mission completed, reported to Col Braddock. DONE
Now ranting about the experience ONGOING
Mission completed, reported to Col Braddock. DONE
Now ranting about the experience ONGOING
Yes, checked in with our half a dozen or so regular suppliers last week. They are all working from home, putting on a brave face, as one would expect. Keen as ever to take your money, but unable to give lead times as they just don't know what's going on them selves. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Of course it will be some time before Wuhan returns to anything like normal, but I think the world needs to see the rest of China getting back at it next week if a major economic crises is to be avoided.Dahon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:06 pmThere are efforts to make sure as many white collar workers as possible work from home. But of course factories will have a harder time. Zhejiang factories will probably not start working tomorrow. Shanghai is dominated by white collars so there the situation is easier.slavedog wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:14 amI think tomorrow will be an important day in all this. It's the day that all the Chinamem are supposed to return to their satanic mills following the government directed one week extension of the new year holiday. If that happens, I think we'll see things begin to normalise next week. If it doesn't happen, if for example the government adds another week to the 'holiday', then it's hard to overstate the severity of the consequences for the global economy.
To be fair, most factories built in the last 30 years or so are far from satanic mills, they often feature the latest in production equipment. For my company, the older European factories are much more unpleasant to work in with often worn facilities. Worker's rights and benefits can be a different story of course.
TheGrimReaper wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:45 pmSlavedog, you do not belong on this forum as you talk too much sense.
From Ambrose Evans Pritchard, one of the few economists who writes stuff we can understand:
"As of this week two-thirds of the Chinese economy remains shut. More than 80pc of its manufacturing industry is closed, rising to 90pc for exporters.
"The Chinese economy is 17pc of the world economy and deeply integrated into international supply chains. It was just 4.5pc of world GDP during the SARS epidemic 2003, which some like to use as a reassuring template. You cannot shut down China for long these days without shutting down the world."
I think you can read a couple of articles for free. Not sure.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Edit. Sorry that's just a link to the newspaper. Can't find the one to the article.
"As of this week two-thirds of the Chinese economy remains shut. More than 80pc of its manufacturing industry is closed, rising to 90pc for exporters.
"The Chinese economy is 17pc of the world economy and deeply integrated into international supply chains. It was just 4.5pc of world GDP during the SARS epidemic 2003, which some like to use as a reassuring template. You cannot shut down China for long these days without shutting down the world."
I think you can read a couple of articles for free. Not sure.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Edit. Sorry that's just a link to the newspaper. Can't find the one to the article.
- spitthedog
- Is the World Outside still there ?
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I reckon the virus was invented to divert attention away from the Trump impeachment trial.
Or possibly a Mossad biological weapon trial let loose.
Sometimes you gotta think outside the box.
Phew, long weekend no?
Or possibly a Mossad biological weapon trial let loose.
Sometimes you gotta think outside the box.
Phew, long weekend no?
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
China Hangzhou Mandatory Quarantine Physical Isolation Is To Lock You Up With Chain Lock
- Ned's missing cat
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Guess who's outside door confinement lock key just got "lost".
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