I was doing some research yesterday and thought I would post a few interesting facts which may or may not give people an idea of how long SARS 2 will survive and how long the lockdowns are likely to be. Of course, there is no real confirmed data on Covid-19 as yet, but it's interesting to observe what we currently known about how long the Influenza viruses last and which direction they travel
First where does the flu originate, and how long does it last.
Seasonal Flu Outbreaks Start in Asia: Study
Knowing the source should lead to more effective vaccines, researchers say
-- Each year, new strains of virus that produce seasonal flu epidemics start in East Asia and Southeast Asia and then spread around the rest of the world, researchers report.
And by focusing on new flu strains emerging in Asia, scientists may be able to improve their forecast of seasonal flu strains and develop better vaccines, the researchers said.
"For over 60 years, the global migration pattern of influenza has been a mystery," lead researcher Colin Russell, of the University of Cambridge in England, said during a Wednesday teleconference.
Conventional wisdom has held that flu viruses migrate between the northern and southern hemispheres after the flu season. Other theories contend that the viruses surface in the tropics and circulate continuously, or start out in China, Russell said.
"We found solid evidence that influenza H3N2 viruses [the most common viruses] have migrated out of what we call the East and Southeast Asian circulation network, which includes tropical, subtropical and temperate countries," Russell said.
Virus strains begin in East and Southeast Asia and take about nine months to reach Europe and North America. They arrive in South America several months later because of South America's isolation in terms of travel from East and Southeast Asia, Russell explained.
Currently, the decision about which strains to include in the yearly flu vaccine are made almost a year before the flu hits the United States, co-author Derek Smith, also from the University of Cambridge, said during the teleconference. Knowing where flu patterns begin will be invaluable in helping to develop more effective vaccines earlier, he added.
"The ultimate goal is to increase our ability to predict the evolution of influenza virus, and this study is one step along that path," Smith said. "This may help us get a step ahead of the virus, because we now know where to look."
Russell said flu viruses rarely return to their place of origin and usually become extinct after a flu epidemic has run its course. "When these viruses leave East and Southeast Asia, they rarely return," he said. "The regions outside East and Southeast Asia are essentially the evolutionary graveyard of influenza virus."
Also, Russell said, flu viruses don't circulate continuously in any one region of the world. "They don't survive at the end of an epidemic in both temperate and tropical countries," he said. However, because East and Southeast Asia are made up of both temperate and tropical areas, flu virus is able to circulate year-round in those areas, he explained.
"It is this year-round circulation, combined with a substantial volume of air traffic amongst East and Southeast Asian countries, that allows East and Southeast Asia to serve as the source of influenza epidemics to the rest of the world," Russell said.
The findings are published in the April 18 issue of the journal Science.
For the study, researchers analyzed 13,000 samples of flu virus collected by the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance Network from six continents from 2002 to 2007.
The researchers compared the differences between the strains in a surface protein called hemagglutinin. Hemagglutinin is the main target of the immune response to the flu, and even small changes can enable the virus to fool immune systems. The researchers also compared the genetic codes for hemagglutinin in a number of the flu strain samples.
Although there are sometimes mismatches between strains of circulating flu virus in the vaccine, the vaccine usually works very well and protects about 300 million people each year from getting the flu, Russell said. Even in years when the flu vaccine is a mismatch, getting vaccinated still offers protection, he said.
According to the World Health Organization, yearly flu epidemics cause some 3 million to 5 million cases of severe illness, and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths every year. [now updated from between 291,000 and 646,000].
In a separate study published in the April 17 issue of the journal Nature, Edward Holmes, a professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University, and colleagues analyzed 1,302 samples of flu collected over 12 years from around the world.
Because of the limited sample size, Holmes said he can't tell where flu viruses start. But he agrees that East and Southeast Asia is the likely source. "That's a really big finding," he said.
Holmes's team analyzed the entire gene sequence of their flu samples. Using the entire genetic sequence, rather than just one gene such as the one for hemagglutinin, will make it possible to create even more effective vaccines, Holmes said.
"Focusing on that one gene alone, you're not getting the complete picture," Holmes said. "That may have a major bearing on why the vaccine fails sometimes."
To make a more effective vaccine, the first thing you need to do is look in the right place -- East and Southeast Asia, Holmes said. "You also have to look at the whole genome rather than just one gene alone
Some blurb about flu from the CDC
According to new estimates published today, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year, higher than a previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 and based on a robust, multinational survey.
The new estimate, from a collaborative study by CDC and global health partners, appears today in The Lancet. The estimate excludes deaths during pandemics.
“These findings remind us of the seriousness of flu and that flu prevention should really be a global priority,” says Joe Bresee, M.D., associate director for global health in CDC’s Influenza Division and a study co-author.
The new estimates use more recent data, taken from a larger and more diverse group of countries than previous estimates. Forty-seven countries contributed to this effort. Researchers calculated annual seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths for 33 of those countries (57 percent of the world’s population) that had death records and seasonal influenza surveillance information for a minimum of four years between 1999 and 2015. Statistical modeling with those results was used to generate an estimate of the number of flu-associated respiratory deaths for 185 countries across the world. Data from the other 14 countries were used to validate the estimates of seasonal influenza-associated respiratory death from the statistical models.
Poorest nations, older adults hit hardest by flu
Researchers calculated region-specific estimates and age-specific mortality estimates for people younger than 65 years, people 65-74 years, and people 75 years and older. The greatest flu mortality burden was seen in the world’s poorest regions and among older adults. People age 75 years and older and people living in sub-Saharan African countries experienced the highest rates of flu-associated respiratory deaths. Eastern Mediterranean and Southeast Asian countries had slightly lower but still high rates of flu-associated respiratory deaths
Next the WHO
Influenza update - 363
16 March 2020 - Update number 363, based on data up to 01 March 2020
Information in this report is categorized by influenza transmission zones, which are geographical groups of countries, areas or territories with similar influenza transmission patterns. For more information on influenza transmission zones, see the link below:
Influenza Transmission Zones
Summary
In the temperate zone of the northern hemisphere, respiratory illness indicators and influenza activity appeared to decrease overall.
In North America, influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza activity started to decline, with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses co-circulating.
In Europe, influenza activity remained elevated overall, though appeared to have peaked in some countries.
In Central Asia, influenza activity decreased with detections of all seasonal influenza subtypes.
In Northern Africa, influenza activity continued to increase in Algeria and Tunisia, with detections of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses.
In Western Asia, influenza activity decreased in most countries, except in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Qatar.
In East Asia, ILI and influenza activity decreased overall.
In the Caribbean and Central American countries, influenza activity was reported in some countries. In Mexico, influenza activity decreased, with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses most frequently detected.
In tropical South American countries, influenza activity remained low.
In tropical Africa, influenza detections were low across reporting countries.
In Southern Asia, increased influenza activity was reported in Bhutan.
In South East Asia, influenza activity continued to be reported in some countries.
In the temperate zones of the southern hemisphere, influenza activity remained at inter-seasonal levels.
Worldwide, seasonal influenza A viruses accounted for the majority of detections.
National Influenza Centres (NICs) and other national influenza laboratories from 111 countries, areas or territories reported data to FluNet for the time period from 17 February 2020 to 01 March 2020 (data as of 2020-03-12 21:24:24 UTC). The WHO GISRS laboratories tested more than 233445 specimens during that time period. 62423 were positive for influenza viruses, of which 42013 (67.3%) were typed as influenza A and 20410 (32.7%) as influenza B. Of the sub-typed influenza A viruses, 7348 (74.5%) were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 2516 (25.5%) were influenza A(H3N2). Of the characterized B viruses, 18 (1.1%) belonged to the B-Yamagata lineage and 1574 (98.9%) to the B-Victoria lineage
Something to read, if so inclined
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- OneTrickPony
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Thanks for that. Here is an interactive model that shows effectiveness of quarantine. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... on=Opinion
I'm already a pro of social distancing, so no probs here, so far.
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Lancet, John Hopkins, New York Times, and a spectacular job by The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... w-covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... w-covid-19
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- I have some social problems
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- OneTrickPony
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^ Don't take my word for it sweet tits, listen to what a doctor has to say:
Doc67
Expatriate
Re: Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus
Post Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:21 pm
So too has Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary. Oh the Irony.
This figure of 11000 cases is complete bollock. It is more likely 100,000 or more with most showing no or little symptoms, or a rough week or so. A tiny proportion need a bit of help and an even smaller proportion end up very ill. And then they post a Twitter video frightening the shit out of people.
I am beginning to think that people will do their own numbers and work out that this is not worth the shutdown.
115 dead in 24 hours. How old were they? How many other co-morbidities did they have? How many were solely admitted for Covid-19 or for something else and were found to be positive? How many caught it in the hospital? (Just like the NHS's lovely MRSA).
All we get is raw numbers and broadcasters saying, "ooh, that's one every 12 minutes"
----++++
I would just like to add, the whole situation in the UK has been compounded by cuts to the NHS since Thatcher. Brown tried to put it right, but...
Doc67
Expatriate
Re: Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus
Post Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:21 pm
So too has Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary. Oh the Irony.
This figure of 11000 cases is complete bollock. It is more likely 100,000 or more with most showing no or little symptoms, or a rough week or so. A tiny proportion need a bit of help and an even smaller proportion end up very ill. And then they post a Twitter video frightening the shit out of people.
I am beginning to think that people will do their own numbers and work out that this is not worth the shutdown.
115 dead in 24 hours. How old were they? How many other co-morbidities did they have? How many were solely admitted for Covid-19 or for something else and were found to be positive? How many caught it in the hospital? (Just like the NHS's lovely MRSA).
All we get is raw numbers and broadcasters saying, "ooh, that's one every 12 minutes"
----++++
I would just like to add, the whole situation in the UK has been compounded by cuts to the NHS since Thatcher. Brown tried to put it right, but...
Up the workers!
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- OneTrickPony
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Lancet article on the mortality rates of COVID-19. it appears the rate is around 0.99% judging by the appraisal of the passengers of the Diamond Princess where a lot of variables, such as testing, didn't exist,
The many estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate
Dimple D Rajgor
Meng Har Lee
Sophia Archuleta
Natasha Bagdasarian
Swee Chye Quek
Published:March 27, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30244-9
PlumX Metrics
Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in December, a question at the forefront of many people's minds has been its mortality rate. Is the mortality rate of COVID-19 higher than that of influenza, but lower than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)?
The trend in mortality reporting for COVID-19 has been typical for emerging infectious diseases. The case fatality rate (CFR) was reported to be 15% (six of 41 patients) in the initial period,1 but this estimate was calculated from a small cohort of hospitalised patients. Subsequently, with more data emerging, the CFR decreased to between 4·3% and 11·0%,2, 3 and later to 3·4%.4 The rate reported outside China in February was even lower (0·4%; two of 464).5
• View related content for this article
This pattern of decreasing CFRs is not surprising during the initial phase of an outbreak. Hard outcomes such as the CFR have a crucial part in forming strategies at national and international levels from a public health perspective. It is imperative that health-care leaders and policy makers are guided by estimates of mortality and case fatality.
However, several factors can restrict obtaining an accurate estimate of the CFR. The virus and its clinical course are new, and we still have little information about them. Health care capacity and capability factors, including the availability of health-care workers, resources, facilities, and preparedness, also affect outcomes. For example, some countries are able to invest resources into contact tracing and containing the spread through quarantine and isolation of infected or suspected cases. In Singapore, where these measures have been implemented, the CFR of 631 cases (as of March 25, 2020) is 0·3%. In other places, testing might not be widely available, and proactive contact tracing and containment might not be employed, resulting in a smaller denominator and skewing to a higher CFR. The CFR can increase in some places if there is a surge of infected patients, which adds to the strain on the health-care system and can overwhelm its medical resources.
A major challenge with accurate calculation of the CFR is the denominator: the number of people who are infected with the virus. Asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, patients with mild symptoms, or individuals who are misdiagnosed could be left out of the denominator, leading to its underestimation and overestimation of the CFR.
A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died,6 giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.7
Although highly transmissible, the CFR of COVID-19 appears to be lower than that of SARS (9·5%) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (34·4%),8 but higher than that of influenza (0·1%).9, 10
We declare no competing interests.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 9/fulltext
The many estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate
Dimple D Rajgor
Meng Har Lee
Sophia Archuleta
Natasha Bagdasarian
Swee Chye Quek
Published:March 27, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30244-9
PlumX Metrics
Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in December, a question at the forefront of many people's minds has been its mortality rate. Is the mortality rate of COVID-19 higher than that of influenza, but lower than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)?
The trend in mortality reporting for COVID-19 has been typical for emerging infectious diseases. The case fatality rate (CFR) was reported to be 15% (six of 41 patients) in the initial period,1 but this estimate was calculated from a small cohort of hospitalised patients. Subsequently, with more data emerging, the CFR decreased to between 4·3% and 11·0%,2, 3 and later to 3·4%.4 The rate reported outside China in February was even lower (0·4%; two of 464).5
• View related content for this article
This pattern of decreasing CFRs is not surprising during the initial phase of an outbreak. Hard outcomes such as the CFR have a crucial part in forming strategies at national and international levels from a public health perspective. It is imperative that health-care leaders and policy makers are guided by estimates of mortality and case fatality.
However, several factors can restrict obtaining an accurate estimate of the CFR. The virus and its clinical course are new, and we still have little information about them. Health care capacity and capability factors, including the availability of health-care workers, resources, facilities, and preparedness, also affect outcomes. For example, some countries are able to invest resources into contact tracing and containing the spread through quarantine and isolation of infected or suspected cases. In Singapore, where these measures have been implemented, the CFR of 631 cases (as of March 25, 2020) is 0·3%. In other places, testing might not be widely available, and proactive contact tracing and containment might not be employed, resulting in a smaller denominator and skewing to a higher CFR. The CFR can increase in some places if there is a surge of infected patients, which adds to the strain on the health-care system and can overwhelm its medical resources.
A major challenge with accurate calculation of the CFR is the denominator: the number of people who are infected with the virus. Asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, patients with mild symptoms, or individuals who are misdiagnosed could be left out of the denominator, leading to its underestimation and overestimation of the CFR.
A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died,6 giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.7
Although highly transmissible, the CFR of COVID-19 appears to be lower than that of SARS (9·5%) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (34·4%),8 but higher than that of influenza (0·1%).9, 10
We declare no competing interests.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 9/fulltext
Up the workers!
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