Warren Stuffs It
- springrain
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I don't think I actually said that. I hope you are keeping well, by the way?Hanno wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 12:00 amAh yes, Corona an invention by Warren Buffett.......springrain wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 6:46 pmHe knew because he knew. I don't begrudge the guy at all.
Isn't it quite clever to know that airlines are going to go down?
But (a note of cynicism). I doubt whether his 'knowledge' was without prior indication.
One must look into how John. D. Rockefeller reacted just before the 'Wall Street Crash'.
One should look into that very carefully.
Big John did get out, as they say. I teach History, but, with online 'teaching' I doubt that that will continue.
I'd like to refer to one of the slogans of the party in 1984:
'He who controls the past controls the future; he who controls the present controls the past.'
I asked my students to analyse (British spelling) that concept.
Look, I hope you are fit and well, Hanno. In the end, it's just keeping well, but I am mightily distrustful of what is going on. History, as they say, DOES repeat itself.
That's all. Take care!
'History is a set of lies agreed upon.'
Attributed to Napoleon
Attributed to Napoleon
It seems that Buffet may have been in the dark when he purchased a million airline shares recently. There is some speculation that he may have dumped the 10% in a petulant frenzy because the politically unaligned Fed didn't give him the tip off.
Although, it's not his usual rallying cry for America, I think he just sees the airline industry going nowhere. He recently said people shouldn't be buying bonds. I wonder if he's been looking at the Buffet Indicator?
Although, it's not his usual rallying cry for America, I think he just sees the airline industry going nowhere. He recently said people shouldn't be buying bonds. I wonder if he's been looking at the Buffet Indicator?
- Prahok
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You appear to be confusing credit creation with inflation.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 12:11 pmFor every one dollar you put in the bank, the bank lends nine on it. That money ends up as debt.
The top 1% making all the money through taking risks. Risks that the people all pay for while they get bailed out. There's a terrible amount of hyper inflation already going on. Did you know the top 1% are being hit hard? Poor bastards. Someone recently had to pay 85 million for a painting!
The way things are going the 1% will own all primary and secondary wealth. Are you going to let them do it?
Hyper-inflation is uncontrolled, accelerating inflation; a different beast again, I believe the last outbreak was Zimbabwe.
That depends on how long the covid war lasts. It's as if all the factories and transport networks had been bombed and medical services overun, continued government wartime rhetoric, fiat creation is at an unprecedented high.
You just need to look back at American history to know that all wars are inflationary.
You just need to look back at American history to know that all wars are inflationary.
- Prahok
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Who are you responding to?Interested bystander wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:13 pmThat depends on how long the covid war lasts. It's as if all the factories and transport networks had been bombed and medical services overun, continued government wartime rhetoric, fiat creation is at an unprecedented high.
You just need to look back at American history to know that all wars are inflationary.
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- OneTrickPony
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Prahok wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:34 pmYou appear to be confusing credit creation with inflation.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 12:11 pmFor every one dollar you put in the bank, the bank lends nine on it. That money ends up as debt.
The top 1% making all the money through taking risks. Risks that the people all pay for while they get bailed out. There's a terrible amount of hyper inflation already going on. Did you know the top 1% are being hit hard? Poor bastards. Someone recently had to pay 85 million for a painting!
The way things are going the 1% will own all primary and secondary wealth. Are you going to let them do it?
Hyper-inflation is uncontrolled, accelerating inflation; a different beast again, I believe the last outbreak was Zimbabwe.
The CPI has of course been rigged for quite a while now. So inflation even before covid was accelerating at a faster rate, held down artificially. Note the year it started accelerating. 1971 when the dollar completely severed it links with gold and the FRB and markets took over.
The simple fact is that inflation is caused by increasing the money supply. The more dollars there are, the less they're worth.
Up the workers!
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- OneTrickPony
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Yes, there's more than one being sold. That's quite a mark up in a few months.
Illustrates my point about the wealthy suffering and looking to invest in anything hard.
Up the workers!
- Prahok
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Countries generally aim for a 1-2% inflation target, so in regards to inflation being government policy you are largely correct. It is to avoid dipping into deflation which discourages lending and spending.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 4:01 pmThe CPI has of course been rigged for quite a while now. So inflation even before covid was accelerating at a faster rate, held down artificially. Note the year it started accelerating. 1971 when the dollar completely severed it links with gold and the FRB and markets took over.
The graph you've shown displays decreasing levels of inflation after the spike in the 70's, not accelerating. As you read the graph, note the time it takes to double. If it was accelerating (hyper-inflation) the graph would be convex. It is showing compounding decelerating inflation,, a straight line or concave.
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- OneTrickPony
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Are you telling me to anchor my expectations?Prahok wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 4:34 pmCountries generally aim for a 1-2% inflation target, so in regards to inflation being government policy you are largely correct. It is to avoid dipping into deflation which discourages lending and spending.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 4:01 pmThe CPI has of course been rigged for quite a while now. So inflation even before covid was accelerating at a faster rate, held down artificially. Note the year it started accelerating. 1971 when the dollar completely severed it links with gold and the FRB and markets took over.
.
CPI
Clinton administration implemented the Boskin Commission which introduced ;
Substitutions
Geometrics
Hedonics. (Used to adjust up to 46% of the CPI).
If inflation were still calculated using the
early 90's formula, it would be 3 to 4 % higher.
Up the workers!
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- OneTrickPony
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If a cup of coffee in 1971 cost a dollar. In 2020 it would cost $6.44.
Total inflation from April 1971
to March 2020 is 543.68%
Total inflation from April 1971
to March 2020 is 543.68%
Up the workers!
- Prahok
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That's an annual inflation rate of around 3.6%; not hyper-inflation.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 11:14 pmIf a cup of coffee in 1971 cost a dollar. In 2020 it would cost $6.44.
Total inflation from April 1971
to March 2020 is 543.68%
The idea of low inflation rates is to avoid deflation whilst avoiding erosion of savings through markets being unable to keep-up (a key problem with hyper-inflation). Those who lose are those who keep hard cash 'under the matress' as the real value of their asset declines.
As far as managing expectations; not really. There are many different economic approaches and these approaches evolve as societies and the environment they find themselves in change. There are reasonable arguments for most approaches and these need to be nurtured to ensure informed debate continues and a wide variety of viable options remain.
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- OneTrickPony
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I never said it was. You were taking about acceleratiing inflation. I was agreeing on that point.Prahok wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 2:52 amThat's an annual inflation rate of around 3.6%; not hyper-inflation.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 11:14 pmIf a cup of coffee in 1971 cost a dollar. In 2020 it would cost $6.44.
Total inflation from April 1971
to March 2020 is 543.68%
.
If there's one thing the virus has taught everyone, it's about exponential growth.
Once an exponential function turns the corner, even though the percentage growth might remain constant and possibly quite low, the actual amounts do not. They pile up faster and faster.
Starmonster will be having a fit about the rate of change. I'm talking about the amount of change over time. That rate is not constant.
Exponential growth in population.
As an example, let's take world population. If world population since humans have existed has increased at 1%, then we would be looking at the below chart. We can see how it has grown exponentially. Looking at cumulative interest we can hopefully start to see the problem. You can't continue to grow exponentially. There is a ceiling. That's not to even talk about transfer of wealth.
Up the workers!
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- OneTrickPony
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If at 12 pm you put a drop of water from a pipet into the Yankee stadium which doubled every minute, how long would it take for the stadium to fill up? Days? Weeks? Months? Years?
At what time would the stadium still be 93% empty space ?
That means you would only have 5 mins to escape. At 93% empty, how many people would realise the seriousness of the problem ?
Exponentials Everywhere
Global consumption of oil
US money supply
The left axes are set on past and current knowns
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Exponentials Everywhere
Global consumption of oil
US money supply
The left axes are set on past and current knowns
Up the workers!