Could Evergrande Happen here?
Could Evergrande Happen here?
From watching a few films, I know Lehman Brother's crashed due to bundling, buying, selling, and sometimes holding, a crazy amount of too high loans for properties too few could actually pay for. And that that triggered the crisis of faith that brought world finance to its knees in 2008.
Folks say a collapse at Evergrande, the seller of about 1/20th of the properties in China over the last 5 years, won't destabilize China. Evergrande's $300 billion loan debt isn't that big a deal, and, anyway, the Government will figure a way for it to fail in an orderly fashion. Still, many condo buyers across China and Hong Kong who bought before developments completed will be out of luck.
How about in Cambodia?
Are Borey's and Condo Towers here often built with loans that need/require early sales, or are they normally built only by the very rich, with their own cash sufficient to complete the project?
And,
Are there any single development groups here that so dominate the new Condo, or Borey markets? (construction at Prince Bank's new corporate home, for example, between Monivong and Norodom seems very slow.)
And,
Are their any tentacles of Evergrande in the Cambodia real estate market?
And,
If you own a condo in a nice, completed, Phnom Penh or Sihanoukville building, are you happy, or sad, to learn a new, half-built, huge development a few blocks away will likely never be completed?
Folks say a collapse at Evergrande, the seller of about 1/20th of the properties in China over the last 5 years, won't destabilize China. Evergrande's $300 billion loan debt isn't that big a deal, and, anyway, the Government will figure a way for it to fail in an orderly fashion. Still, many condo buyers across China and Hong Kong who bought before developments completed will be out of luck.
How about in Cambodia?
Are Borey's and Condo Towers here often built with loans that need/require early sales, or are they normally built only by the very rich, with their own cash sufficient to complete the project?
And,
Are there any single development groups here that so dominate the new Condo, or Borey markets? (construction at Prince Bank's new corporate home, for example, between Monivong and Norodom seems very slow.)
And,
Are their any tentacles of Evergrande in the Cambodia real estate market?
And,
If you own a condo in a nice, completed, Phnom Penh or Sihanoukville building, are you happy, or sad, to learn a new, half-built, huge development a few blocks away will likely never be completed?
Evergrande is rather spectacular but the crisis is not isolated to them. There are over a dozen Chinese property developers deep in shit, and it’s going to send shockwaves across the entire world including Cambodia.
There’s pictures circulating on WeChat showing an Evergrande executive held hostage by investors.
There’s pictures circulating on WeChat showing an Evergrande executive held hostage by investors.
Difficult to say.
It is quite likely, the China/Korea "owned" properties in Cambodia are more built with unofficial money, implying that a lot more cash had to be put on the table, than with formal investments.
Something visible, because the owners don't seem to be that much worried about large scale empty apartments, etc. So, yeah, the interest payments (low anyway), is not so much of an issue. And delaying loans paybacks is neither a real issue for the whole money chain, when the interest is low and no alternatives for the money are available. As long as the underlying property values aren't effected to much.
It is also quite like, China will not allow the economy to crash due to Evergrande going down, since that would a clear but unacceptable signal of the CCP and the state system failure.
Though, somebody has to pay for the crash. Think about the huge amount of money collected on Western stock-exchanges for now nearly worthless China enterprises, due to some change of rules in China. And collected from the likes of Alibaba, where the "wealth" is state wise distributed "back" to the ordinary Chinese (and of course to the CCP itself, they have to get their income to rule somewhere).
China is already working to clean up these nasty spots on their superiority: Deserted / Non-finished buildings are being demolished at a large scale all over China.
It is quite likely, the China/Korea "owned" properties in Cambodia are more built with unofficial money, implying that a lot more cash had to be put on the table, than with formal investments.
Something visible, because the owners don't seem to be that much worried about large scale empty apartments, etc. So, yeah, the interest payments (low anyway), is not so much of an issue. And delaying loans paybacks is neither a real issue for the whole money chain, when the interest is low and no alternatives for the money are available. As long as the underlying property values aren't effected to much.
It is also quite like, China will not allow the economy to crash due to Evergrande going down, since that would a clear but unacceptable signal of the CCP and the state system failure.
Though, somebody has to pay for the crash. Think about the huge amount of money collected on Western stock-exchanges for now nearly worthless China enterprises, due to some change of rules in China. And collected from the likes of Alibaba, where the "wealth" is state wise distributed "back" to the ordinary Chinese (and of course to the CCP itself, they have to get their income to rule somewhere).
China is already working to clean up these nasty spots on their superiority: Deserted / Non-finished buildings are being demolished at a large scale all over China.
Really? Any links?
pew, pew, pew, pew!
Try the link, or look where I located it with a 5 second google, "Video shows 15 high-rises blasted to smithereens in China's Kunming" Taiwan News Aug 30. (If Taiwan sites still accessible in Cambodia. Joke. Ha, Ha. For now?)
Anyway, who can resist "smithereens" in a headline?
Looks like destruction of future vertical vegetable gardens to me. I know Cambodians sledge hammer out the rebar steel, and concrete chunks make good fill, but destroying unfinished towers, rather than repurposing, seems a sad, sad waste of carbon!
Yeah. Smithereens should be used more often but maybe not in a controlled demolition!
That article does not give the full picture, on that particular episode. If you Google it other articles will tell you they were illegally built and the owners took it to court, and lost, which is why they were unfinished.
They (China) are cleaning up illegal builds.
Any more links or is it just a little bit of hyperbole?
That article does not give the full picture, on that particular episode. If you Google it other articles will tell you they were illegally built and the owners took it to court, and lost, which is why they were unfinished.
They (China) are cleaning up illegal builds.
Any more links or is it just a little bit of hyperbole?
pew, pew, pew, pew!
Use this search: china abandoned skyscraper
The border between "illegally build" and "abandoned because of finances" tends to be pretty thin.
The border between "illegally build" and "abandoned because of finances" tends to be pretty thin.
you will see it in the open of the NYSE in a few hours.
everyone will get a slice.
everyone will get a slice.
Not really.
The term “ghost cities” and “abandoned skyscrapers” gets tossed around when referring to the Chinas a lot when in fact it’s all out of date or downright incorrect.
They (China) are not knocking down buildings all over China at all.
The amount of misinformation around when it comes to China is astonishing. It’s no wonder they are kicking everyone’s Arse when it comes to manufacturing and resources.
You can all live in hope that they will get their just desserts but the reality is they are too rich and smart (they are Chinese after all) to be beaten. It’ll cost western governments and institutions billions to fight them.
Wether it could happen here I don’t know. If there’s a world wide crash then yes.
I don’t think they’ll be a crash for another 3 years. COVID rebound will help to kick the can down the road.
*Source. Me. I’m a Asian economist and ducking genius when it comes to Chinas.
pew, pew, pew, pew!
So how much of the Cambodian economy is real estate & construction:
a)pre-pandemic? Perhaps 1/5th ?
b)now? ?
Loss of tourism during the pandemic has been huge. At the same time, construction projects, just an un scientific, casual, visual glance at project progress, fell by 40-70% (Some stopped totally, but many slowed: e.g. a one year schedule extended to 3) IF Cambodian builders/developers lose confidence in the property market, how many workers will be out of work?
(As a side note, anyone know if farm labor/day rates decreased much over the pandemic?)
a)pre-pandemic? Perhaps 1/5th ?
b)now? ?
Loss of tourism during the pandemic has been huge. At the same time, construction projects, just an un scientific, casual, visual glance at project progress, fell by 40-70% (Some stopped totally, but many slowed: e.g. a one year schedule extended to 3) IF Cambodian builders/developers lose confidence in the property market, how many workers will be out of work?
(As a side note, anyone know if farm labor/day rates decreased much over the pandemic?)
You are addressing a whole range of items.YaTingPom wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:55 pmNot really.
The term “ghost cities” and “abandoned skyscrapers” gets tossed around when referring to the Chinas a lot when in fact it’s all out of date or downright incorrect.
They (China) are not knocking down buildings all over China at all.
The amount of misinformation around when it comes to China is astonishing. It’s no wonder they are kicking everyone’s Arse when it comes to manufacturing and resources.
You can all live in hope that they will get their just desserts but the reality is they are too rich and smart (they are Chinese after all) to be beaten. It’ll cost western governments and institutions billions to fight them.
Wether it could happen here I don’t know. If there’s a world wide crash then yes.
I don’t think they’ll be a crash for another 3 years. COVID rebound will help to kick the can down the road.
*Source. Me. I’m a Asian economist and ducking genius when it comes to Chinas.
Let me start with your "Source". Yep, sources like this always claim "Nothing wrong", it's their nature
Crash only in another 3 years: I don't think so. Crisis do start with a huge blowing up rate of asset values. And that is exactly what we see happening at the moment.
China's (economic) success ?
Maybe there are several major aspects relevant:
- China does not recognize intellectual property, IE copy cats is allowed and maybe even encouraged.
- No proper independent legal system, making "business" more of a gamble than of fair business principles.
- No >50% foreigner company ownerships.
- China labor practices border on organized slave labor, see the large scale "China Projects" in SHV and PP. Let alone the Apple assembly industries in mainland China.
- Centralized government with harsh methods for those disobeying, having little attention for individual human wellbeing/rights.
- Little interest for the environment (there seem to be some 630 coal fueled energy plants being developed, right now), have you ever been to Datong and its surroundings ?
So, yeah, a "success", though at what price ?
Oh, and the China government already told the banks, they do have to accept defaults without consequences on interest payments from Evergrande. Now, and probably in the near future to.
Ghost cities: They are there. The simple fact these exist, does show, that there are other than regular economic principles being used to justify building these cities. Might be party politics or just people with too much shady money. And yep, over time, these cities might fill up, simply because of a growing population. In contrast with most Western EU countries, where there is a huge shortage of houses.
So, I don't consider myself a China specialist, though the above items are certainly worrying from a common sense perspective. Or so to say, what is behind this and when is it going to collapse, since it gives the impression of a Ponzi scheme.
Oh, and the US government debt mechanism is no different......
Nor the "success" of the UAE or Qatar, largely based on slave-labor.
Trading in New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks on Monday were exhibiting panic-like-selling behavior as global stocks confronted a sharp selloff that has been attributed partly to concerns about the collapse of Chinese developer Evergrande. The NYSE Arms Index, a volume weighted breadth measure that tracks the ratio of advancing stock to declining stocks over the ratio of advancing volume over declining volume, was showing a reading of 2.088 for NYSE-listed shares. Many technicians say a rise to at least 2.000 suggests panic-like selling behavior. The reading comes as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.78% was off 2.4% at 33,762; the S&P 500 index SPX, -1.70% was off 2.4% at 4,327 and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -2.19% was trading 2.8% lower at 14,616.
The Chinese markets are closed over the moon festival and will open on Wednesday. This is still only foreign investors speculating how shit things will be.Guest wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:11 amTrading in New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks on Monday were exhibiting panic-like-selling behavior as global stocks confronted a sharp selloff that has been attributed partly to concerns about the collapse of Chinese developer Evergrande.
It’s going to be an interesting week, as the Chinese say. The Chinese markets will be a bloodbath on Wednesday while Hong Kong is closed. People are freaking out.
-
- Similar Topics
- Replies
- Views
- Last post
-
-
Evergrande goes into liquidation amid fears of ‘Japanification’ crashing the Chinese economy similar to 90s Japan.
by Chroy Changvarite » Tue Jan 30, 2024 2:00 am » in 'Not' Cambodia - 2 Replies
- 317 Views
-
Last post by Prahok
Tue Jan 30, 2024 2:23 am
-
-
-
What Would Happen If a Khmer Punched a Khmer Shopkeeper On the Nose for Trying To Cheat Him?
by Aseriousman » Sat May 18, 2019 6:36 pm » in Cambodia Speakeasy - 30 Replies
- 13393 Views
-
Last post by RainMan
Fri May 24, 2019 1:02 pm
-