Cambodia’s international business community remain ‘bullish’ on the local economy despite the recent GDP growth downgrade citing an ultra-fast vaccination drive and multiple bilateral and multilateral trade agreements to be implemented next year.
Read more: https://cambodiainvestmentreview.com/20 ... -for-2021/
Business community aims for ‘V-shaped recovery’ after COVID vaccinations as GDP growth downgraded to 2.5% for 2021
You probably want to spell Oknha correctly.
I also tend to disagree with this optimism;
1. Garment exports will remain screwed until the rest of the world is spending again - doesn't matter that people are vaccinated and factories open here if nobody from the West is buying.
2. Tourism is utterly screwed; Cambodia has always been a side step from Bangkok, KL, Singapore, etc - Chinese casino crew excepted. Again, people will not be travelling long distance for holidays as their first choice post-COVID. Who wants to be stuck on the other side of the world? I see folks planning holidays closer to home, if not in their own country. Thus again, tourism here will not pick up until 2024 in my book. 2022 the year of "local" travel, then maybe 2023 for something a bit more exotic like Bangkok (assuming variant Epsilon doesn't rear its head..). But then look at Thailand, COVID isn't the only problem facing the Thais currently, it is increasingly being seen as a questionable dictatorship rather than a haven of partying & cheap booze/sex in its heyday. (Awaits PhuketoRicardo to chime in! )
3. Agriculture - its a big industry here, but mainly for domestic consumption (Textiles was previously 70% of exports?) So I don't see ths sector coming to the rescue to fill the gap. But at least we'll have rice.
That leaves the gambling industry which is likely to continue unabated - check the flights now; I think most are still from/to China. Will an influx of Chinese gamblers be enough to keep that growth ticking over? I'm not convinced.
So there, doom and gloom predicted this end!!
"Thailand's betrayed me. Abandon your posts! Flee, flee for your lives!"
I also tend to disagree with this optimism;
1. Garment exports will remain screwed until the rest of the world is spending again - doesn't matter that people are vaccinated and factories open here if nobody from the West is buying.
2. Tourism is utterly screwed; Cambodia has always been a side step from Bangkok, KL, Singapore, etc - Chinese casino crew excepted. Again, people will not be travelling long distance for holidays as their first choice post-COVID. Who wants to be stuck on the other side of the world? I see folks planning holidays closer to home, if not in their own country. Thus again, tourism here will not pick up until 2024 in my book. 2022 the year of "local" travel, then maybe 2023 for something a bit more exotic like Bangkok (assuming variant Epsilon doesn't rear its head..). But then look at Thailand, COVID isn't the only problem facing the Thais currently, it is increasingly being seen as a questionable dictatorship rather than a haven of partying & cheap booze/sex in its heyday. (Awaits PhuketoRicardo to chime in! )
3. Agriculture - its a big industry here, but mainly for domestic consumption (Textiles was previously 70% of exports?) So I don't see ths sector coming to the rescue to fill the gap. But at least we'll have rice.
That leaves the gambling industry which is likely to continue unabated - check the flights now; I think most are still from/to China. Will an influx of Chinese gamblers be enough to keep that growth ticking over? I'm not convinced.
So there, doom and gloom predicted this end!!
"Thailand's betrayed me. Abandon your posts! Flee, flee for your lives!"
Meum est propositum in taberna mori,
ut sint Guinness proxima morientis ori.
tunc cantabunt letius angelorum chori:
"Sit Deus propitius huic potatori."
ut sint Guinness proxima morientis ori.
tunc cantabunt letius angelorum chori:
"Sit Deus propitius huic potatori."
Traveling isn't getting any easier, that's for sure. It might be ok for the resolute individual traveler but forget about those exotic family holidays.
Look at the bright side, this might be the demise of backpacking.
Look at the bright side, this might be the demise of backpacking.
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Anything that keeps kids off of planes is a bonus for me. Admittedly covid was a nasty way to make it happen. C'est la vie.
I am not bullish. If Delta manages to close businesses again it might push many smaller ones over the edge. Good for Oknhas to scoop up or have less competition to their own (franchise) brands. Not so good for the average Khmer or expat.
As there is no financial support from the government and staff is laid off the question becomes how they will generate income. Protests like in the West are not tolerated here. Thus the ones at the top have no incentive to change their policies. This could lead to an increase in crime. Let's hope they think Chinese are wealthier than Westerners so we are a little safer
Thailand might face a new coup so the region will not be a popular holiday destination any time soon. Maybe some local or ASEAN tourism.
As there is no financial support from the government and staff is laid off the question becomes how they will generate income. Protests like in the West are not tolerated here. Thus the ones at the top have no incentive to change their policies. This could lead to an increase in crime. Let's hope they think Chinese are wealthier than Westerners so we are a little safer
Thailand might face a new coup so the region will not be a popular holiday destination any time soon. Maybe some local or ASEAN tourism.
Gov is working on plans to reopen the country once a large part of the population is vaccinated. Now with the India variant, it got a bit quiet around that, though with the aim for AstraZenica as a third shot booster, it might be possible again. Think about November for dedicated visitors. And early 2022 for limited tourists.
Added: The 2022 tourists now also announced:
The Tourists come back
Which implies business people are allowed in earlier.
Added: The 2022 tourists now also announced:
The Tourists come back
Which implies business people are allowed in earlier.
My pompous prognostication.
While I agree with Spigzy that a V-shaped general recovery within 2021 is definitely a pipe dream, I am not nearly so pessimistic about 2022 and 2023, even if 2022 will be a slow start.
To also respond to Logos' comment, backpacker's are not all created equal. I don't see Siem Reap Pub Street full before 2023, but a few bars there, I couldn't guess which, will do OK in 2022,. (maybe slightly edgy like Angkor What when it opened? Or not. Times have changed.) because the more adventurous sort of backpackers WILL travel. They won't nearly fill up Siem Reap, or PP, or even Kampot, but through summer and fall of 2022 they might bring Battambang, and Kratie, and Steung Treng, and Banlung and Sen Monorom to half or 2/3 of what they were through 2019. When will mass tourism return to SE Asia? I don't know, but less overdeveloped pockets will come back first, well probably 2nd, after the Chinese, to the Chinese owned and organized places.
The world buying what Cambodia makes? Well, certainly neither of us knows about Señor Epsilon, and indeed Mr. Delta plus is certainly trying to toss a wrench in the works, but It looks like lots in the west, at least USA and Canada, are still keen on mass consumption and have the coin to do so. Garments, shoes, bicycles, and random Japanese bits made in Cambodia will probably do OK once global logistics works out some clogs in assorted supply chains.
Anyway, that is what I want to be true.
While I agree with Spigzy that a V-shaped general recovery within 2021 is definitely a pipe dream, I am not nearly so pessimistic about 2022 and 2023, even if 2022 will be a slow start.
To also respond to Logos' comment, backpacker's are not all created equal. I don't see Siem Reap Pub Street full before 2023, but a few bars there, I couldn't guess which, will do OK in 2022,. (maybe slightly edgy like Angkor What when it opened? Or not. Times have changed.) because the more adventurous sort of backpackers WILL travel. They won't nearly fill up Siem Reap, or PP, or even Kampot, but through summer and fall of 2022 they might bring Battambang, and Kratie, and Steung Treng, and Banlung and Sen Monorom to half or 2/3 of what they were through 2019. When will mass tourism return to SE Asia? I don't know, but less overdeveloped pockets will come back first, well probably 2nd, after the Chinese, to the Chinese owned and organized places.
The world buying what Cambodia makes? Well, certainly neither of us knows about Señor Epsilon, and indeed Mr. Delta plus is certainly trying to toss a wrench in the works, but It looks like lots in the west, at least USA and Canada, are still keen on mass consumption and have the coin to do so. Garments, shoes, bicycles, and random Japanese bits made in Cambodia will probably do OK once global logistics works out some clogs in assorted supply chains.
Anyway, that is what I want to be true.
Ones things for sure. This last two years will mean leaner more efficient businesses with a lot of the dross gone.
pew, pew, pew, pew!
I wouldn't put it past the 'few' unethical businessmen wo are profiteering from Covid (certain hotel owners/tourist tour operators/visa extenders/ school owners etc) to ' create' statistics that justify extension of the situation.
If a hotel has 50 rooms, and each guest pays $3 for 'security' every day that's $150 x 30 = $4500 for sweet fuck all every month, and the security guard still only gets $100/month.
And then there's the food/water/BS charges.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, call me a socialist, but I don't seen any hotel owner who formerly had 50% annual occupancy (if he was lucky)NOT trying to feed that cash cow.
And still, not a SINGLE 'journalist' here has written anything on this topic.
I wouldn't put it past the 'few' unethical businessmen wo are profiteering from Covid (certain hotel owners/tourist tour operators/visa extenders/ school owners etc) to ' create' statistics that justify extension of the situation.
If a hotel has 50 rooms, and each guest pays $3 for 'security' every day that's $150 x 30 = $4500 for sweet fuck all every month, and the security guard still only gets $100/month.
And then there's the food/water/BS charges.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, call me a socialist, but I don't seen any hotel owner who formerly had 50% annual occupancy (if he was lucky)NOT trying to feed that cash cow.
And still, not a SINGLE 'journalist' here has written anything on this topic.
Possibly. But if it’s your hotel and you weren’t sure if and when tourists will come back would you do the same. Make hay while the sun shines?twinkletoes wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:44 amI wouldn't put it past the 'few' unethical businessmen wo are profiteering from Covid (certain hotel owners/tourist tour operators/visa extenders/ school owners etc) to ' create' statistics that justify extension of the situation.
If a hotel has 50 rooms, and each guest pays $3 for 'security' every day that's $150 x 30 = $4500 for sweet fuck all every month, and the security guard still only gets $100/month.
And then there's the food/water/BS charges.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, call me a socialist, but I don't seen any hotel owner who formerly had 50% annual occupancy (if he was lucky)NOT trying to feed that cash cow.
And still, not a SINGLE 'journalist' here has written anything on this topic.
It’s know a guy in the UK who’s made shit loads out of the COVID testing. He didn’t plan it just happened.
Funnily enough he also invested (2018) in a PPE company, sort of related to his field, and that also made shite loads.
They nearly went bankrupt. Bought £5 million in PPE only for their cusyomer to pull out (they actually went bankrupt) and his bank were about to pull the rug when they got an urgent call from a government supplier. Saved his arse and made him millions.
He still drives a 15 year Toyota mind.
pew, pew, pew, pew!
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