Why the change?
- LTO
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Why the change?
There seems to have been a major shift in the relationship between CNRP and CPP over the last month or so. Until just recently, the CoD seemed to be steaming along swimmingly. Protests and rhetoric were at a minimum keeping the CPP happy, the government was rounding up ethnic Viets and making other small 'changes' to the pleasure of the opposition, Rainsy and Hun Sen were taking bff selfies like spring lovers...then, bang, everything seemed to change. CNRP people rounded up and jailed in an overnight event, threats of more arrests including opposition Parliamentarians, and now Hun Sen unilaterally rejecting the early election date which was a hard fought and key negotiating point to get the opposition to sit last year. And I wonder why, why the sudden change?
I think it is one of two things.
Either there were some ground rules that sat at the base of the CoD and the HE/Rainsy cooperation that Hun Sen feels were violated or broken, and so he is going back on his half of the deal as well, perhaps temporarily as they work out this hiccup. Perhaps the trigger was the provocative border protests and French map thing...maybe combined with the annoyance of the LANGO protests and NA boycott. As we know, HE is militantly sensitive about the border issue, so maybe the border protests (and the failure of the opposition to rein them in) were the straw the broke the deal in his mind. Perhaps this is a signal that Rainsy must control his people or the deal is over.
Or maybe it's not that at all, but just pure old school election strategy. Perhaps, after a year of work, HE feels that he is now at the point where the cooperation with Rainsy and the CoD have outlived their usefulness. From his perspective, he has a functioning NA, by rounding up Viets and arresting Oknhas and such he has demonstrated to the people the CPP willingness to make 'change,' he has radically increased security (and thus control of the streets) and gotten all of his police/military ducks in a row again, Chea Sim died thus helping to consolidate his faction of the party, internal tensions within the opposition (nurtured in part by Hun Sen) are peaking, new opposition parties have begun to break away (thereby splitting the vote,) Rainsy has been made to look like a collaborator thereby weakening his position, etc. Hun Sen now feels that he is repositioned to win again in 2018 and has moved onto the next step, from indirect politicking for position to direct action against the opposition in the tradition of previous elections. Is it that he bamboozled Rainsy and is now putting his cards on the table, revealing the bluff? That would seem to make sense of his comment yesterday that the opposition was "stupid," presumably for having believed him last year.
Other possibilities? (e.g. A preemptive crackdown on brewing 'color revolution' by an increasingly paranoid dictator? )
I think it is one of two things.
Either there were some ground rules that sat at the base of the CoD and the HE/Rainsy cooperation that Hun Sen feels were violated or broken, and so he is going back on his half of the deal as well, perhaps temporarily as they work out this hiccup. Perhaps the trigger was the provocative border protests and French map thing...maybe combined with the annoyance of the LANGO protests and NA boycott. As we know, HE is militantly sensitive about the border issue, so maybe the border protests (and the failure of the opposition to rein them in) were the straw the broke the deal in his mind. Perhaps this is a signal that Rainsy must control his people or the deal is over.
Or maybe it's not that at all, but just pure old school election strategy. Perhaps, after a year of work, HE feels that he is now at the point where the cooperation with Rainsy and the CoD have outlived their usefulness. From his perspective, he has a functioning NA, by rounding up Viets and arresting Oknhas and such he has demonstrated to the people the CPP willingness to make 'change,' he has radically increased security (and thus control of the streets) and gotten all of his police/military ducks in a row again, Chea Sim died thus helping to consolidate his faction of the party, internal tensions within the opposition (nurtured in part by Hun Sen) are peaking, new opposition parties have begun to break away (thereby splitting the vote,) Rainsy has been made to look like a collaborator thereby weakening his position, etc. Hun Sen now feels that he is repositioned to win again in 2018 and has moved onto the next step, from indirect politicking for position to direct action against the opposition in the tradition of previous elections. Is it that he bamboozled Rainsy and is now putting his cards on the table, revealing the bluff? That would seem to make sense of his comment yesterday that the opposition was "stupid," presumably for having believed him last year.
Other possibilities? (e.g. A preemptive crackdown on brewing 'color revolution' by an increasingly paranoid dictator? )
Or he's had confirmation ( private polls?) the current strategy was doomed in any case and is reverting to familiar bullying tactics , hoping the other guys won't stand the heat
- LTO
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If it was just the jailings, I think some variation on that would be a possible explanation, or partial explanation. But it seems more than that now, for example, the threats of more arrests, and the election date slap in the face yesterday.YaTingPom wrote:Or Rainsy and HE already agreed on some scalps...
Maybe HE has noticed the bromance being discussed online and is just posturing.
I firmly believe that HE knows things need to change but is reluctant to carry out those changes.
Reluctant but not adamant.
I firmly believe that HE knows things need to change but is reluctant to carry out those changes.
Reluctant but not adamant.
pew, pew, pew, pew!
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I think it's your first scenario. As experienced and wily as HE is, I think he's played this poorly. It was to his immense advantage to keep this CoD pretense going for much longer, until an unbridgeable rift developed with CNRP. Putting the election back just makes him look even more untrustworthy and will increase votes against him. Coupled with the outrageous 'insurrection' imprisonments, the signs I'm picking up is that he's going back to fighting dirty and is prepared to sabotage the election or it's outcome if needs be. Of course, it leaves Rainsy looking a mug, but not resignable at this stage. All in all, for me, it's a very worrying turn for the worse.
YTP - the sad this is, things ARE changing, and very positively. This tantrum just undermines all the good work.
YTP - the sad this is, things ARE changing, and very positively. This tantrum just undermines all the good work.
I came, I argued, I'm out
- LTO
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If it is for sake of popularity, Hun Sen does not need to distance himself from Rainsy. Rainsy needs to distance himself from Hun Sen. If he is posturing to make Rainsy look the fool, it's not because he wants to dispel rumors of a bromance, but make it look like Rainsy was "stupid" for ever believing their was one.YaTingPom wrote:Maybe HE has noticed the bromance being discussed online and is just posturing.
I firmly believe that HE knows things need to change but is reluctant to carry out those changes.
Reluctant but not adamant.
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Rainsy loses support of HRP faction of CNRP. Party will split or lose either Kem or Sam costing it any chance it had of taking power.
CPP takes 50/60% of the vote next time out with no cohesive opposition.
Business as usual.
CPP takes 50/60% of the vote next time out with no cohesive opposition.
Business as usual.
I've heard some street talk along the lines that the Vietnam issue was the straw that broke the camel's back.
Personally I think he's just reasserting himself while the political situation is quieter. Things got a little out of hand during the Freedom Park protests and mass marches on Monivong, so much so that a major crackdown could have led to more serious unrest (like in the Arab spring countries). It was better to make a deal, appear somewhat progressive, and let things quiet down. Now that everybody's back to work he can go back to more strongman tactics and try to intimidate away a 2017-2018 repeat of 2013-2014.
I've always thought that the pundits saying the CPP needed to reform was very wishful thinking. You can't out-progressive a progressive opposition and serious reforms lend credence to other side's platform. It's the "if you give a mouse a cookie" theory. CPP leadership can provide some reforms, but old school power moves and divide-and-conquer strategy are much more important and safer ways to maintain power.
Personally I think he's just reasserting himself while the political situation is quieter. Things got a little out of hand during the Freedom Park protests and mass marches on Monivong, so much so that a major crackdown could have led to more serious unrest (like in the Arab spring countries). It was better to make a deal, appear somewhat progressive, and let things quiet down. Now that everybody's back to work he can go back to more strongman tactics and try to intimidate away a 2017-2018 repeat of 2013-2014.
I've always thought that the pundits saying the CPP needed to reform was very wishful thinking. You can't out-progressive a progressive opposition and serious reforms lend credence to other side's platform. It's the "if you give a mouse a cookie" theory. CPP leadership can provide some reforms, but old school power moves and divide-and-conquer strategy are much more important and safer ways to maintain power.
- Lucky Lucan
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It seems like the opposition have lost their momentum. The ruling party has paid lip service to some popular concerns and probably feels confident enough that it can just roll along as ever.
Romantic Cambodia is dead and gone. It's with McKinley in the grave.
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exray wrote:Divide the opposition. It's what one does. Crisis/control.
That was always going to happen, and more fool Rainsy and his ego for thinking this time would be different.
I said above that I thought the big man had acted a bit too early and impulsively though - now I'm not so sure. Maybe the key moment was the jailing of the 11 CNRP people in order to provoke a response, and the response of Rainsy - nothing.
Now 3 more, next more ... and more. Now blocking raising funds for the CNRP TV station; once enough dosh is raised overseas a hidden lost law will suddenly be discovered that renders a new TV station unconstitutional. So what can Rainsy do? He had his chance and he blew it. At some point either he or his hapless party has to say "Here is a line in the sand - we will withdraw all cooperation if you cross". And they will cross. The longer Rainsy remains part of this sham CoD the more he'll lose, but he can't withdraw without losing massive face and the trust of his party. I suspect the big man knew exactly what he was doing, yet again, and Rainsy has been done right up like a kipper.
None of this bodes well for human rights, peace or security mind, but that's the way it is, imo.
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- Barang_doa_slae
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I favor LTO second option.
HE is a remarkable political beast. His preferred tactic is baiting with sweet talks or favors before hitting hard under the belt to grab the balls and control his opponent.
He also sometimes goes too far as he just did with his latest speech using insults against women..
I voted for the rain man in last election to send CPP a warning message and same as many regretted that choice when I saw that CNRP won or could have won.
I will definitely vote CPP in the next one.
HE is a remarkable political beast. His preferred tactic is baiting with sweet talks or favors before hitting hard under the belt to grab the balls and control his opponent.
He also sometimes goes too far as he just did with his latest speech using insults against women..
I voted for the rain man in last election to send CPP a warning message and same as many regretted that choice when I saw that CNRP won or could have won.
I will definitely vote CPP in the next one.
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