'Political Analyst' Dr Kem Ley Shot Dead in Star Mart
-
- Damn, I just saw my Internet Bill !
- Reactions: 3
- Posts: 4420
- Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2012 3:04 pm
Saw it this morning along the corner of Monivong and Russian boulevard. I then followed the train tracks as there was no way to get on Russian B. The procession was long for sure and quite impressive. It'll be fairly easy to buy little bottles from the villages as they go on. I doubt the gas situation will be a major issue or impediment.
- LTO
- The Internet is my Friend
- Reactions: 1
- Posts: 6412
- Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:10 pm
- Location: Srok Khmer
- Contact:
My qyuick crowd estimate based solely on online sources, mostly social media.
From LICADHO, a fairly reliable though perhaps slightly biased (pro-opp) source, the maximum reported estimated procession length was 8km. It was reported at 3km and 5km earlier in the day.
Photos of the crowd density vary. The greatest crowd density would appear about medium/dense for an open event. That requires about 1m2 per person min.
Assuming the road is 30 meters wide (though it is probably narrower), 100 meters of road = 3000m2. So about 3000 people for every 100 meters of road.
Thus 1km = about 30,000 people. 5km = 150,000, 8km = 260,000
This is trying to be generous to the crowd: It assumes the crowd to be uniformly dense, which is in fact unlikely. It is likely that it was less dense in areas, especially in the last third. It assumes the road was widely than it likely is. It assumes the crowd density photo was representative, which it probably wasn't. Photogs prefer denser crowd shot. It assumes the road was filled side to side for the entire length, which it almost certainly wasn't. And it assumes the report of an 8km length was accurate.
So, the max is 30,000 x 8km = 260,000 people. Taking all of these generous assumptions into account, I would guess more like 150,000-170,000 max. Very possibly a bit less. Slightly possible as low as <100,000, but I doubt it.
From LICADHO, a fairly reliable though perhaps slightly biased (pro-opp) source, the maximum reported estimated procession length was 8km. It was reported at 3km and 5km earlier in the day.
Photos of the crowd density vary. The greatest crowd density would appear about medium/dense for an open event. That requires about 1m2 per person min.
Assuming the road is 30 meters wide (though it is probably narrower), 100 meters of road = 3000m2. So about 3000 people for every 100 meters of road.
Thus 1km = about 30,000 people. 5km = 150,000, 8km = 260,000
This is trying to be generous to the crowd: It assumes the crowd to be uniformly dense, which is in fact unlikely. It is likely that it was less dense in areas, especially in the last third. It assumes the road was widely than it likely is. It assumes the crowd density photo was representative, which it probably wasn't. Photogs prefer denser crowd shot. It assumes the road was filled side to side for the entire length, which it almost certainly wasn't. And it assumes the report of an 8km length was accurate.
So, the max is 30,000 x 8km = 260,000 people. Taking all of these generous assumptions into account, I would guess more like 150,000-170,000 max. Very possibly a bit less. Slightly possible as low as <100,000, but I doubt it.
- Felgerkarb
- Sir Felgerkarb, Kt Pb
- Reactions: 240
- Posts: 9140
- Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 3:22 am
- Location: Castle Felgerkarb, Felgerkarbia (Formerly Preah Vihear)
- Contact:
LTO wrote:My qyuick crowd estimate based solely on online sources, mostly social media.
From LICADHO, a fairly reliable though perhaps slightly biased (pro-opp) source, the maximum reported estimated procession length was 8km. It was reported at 3km and 5km earlier in the day.
Photos of the crowd density vary. The greatest crowd density would appear about medium/dense for an open event. That requires about 1m2 per person min.
Assuming the road is 30 meters wide (though it is probably narrower), 100 meters of road = 3000m2. So about 3000 people for every 100 meters of road.
Thus 1km = about 30,000 people. 5km = 150,000, 8km = 260,000
This is trying to be generous to the crowd: It assumes the crowd to be uniformly dense, which is in fact unlikely. It is likely that it was less dense in areas, especially in the last third. It assumes the road was widely than it likely is. It assumes the crowd density photo was representative, which it probably wasn't. Photogs prefer denser crowd shot. It assumes the road was filled side to side for the entire length, which it almost certainly wasn't. And it assumes the report of an 8km length was accurate.
So, the max is 30,000 x 8km = 260,000 people. Taking all of these generous assumptions into account, I would guess more like 150,000-170,000 max. Very possibly a bit less. Slightly possible as low as <100,000, but I doubt it.
Fits my estimate, which is about 60% of that 260k number. Glad things went fairly well. RIP.
====================
Why are the gods such vicious cunts?
Where is the god of tits and wine?
Why are the gods such vicious cunts?
Where is the god of tits and wine?
There are some quite accurate crowd estimation measures, I think, but I don't believe any of them takes the cubic metres of motorbikes and required space between them into account.
Anyway, hope some devious yuons make a fortune out of selling bottles of petrol along the way.
Anyway, hope some devious yuons make a fortune out of selling bottles of petrol along the way.
- LTO
- The Internet is my Friend
- Reactions: 1
- Posts: 6412
- Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:10 pm
- Location: Srok Khmer
- Contact:
Yes, the would bring down the number even more, but I was trying to be generous.RobW wrote:There are some quite accurate crowd estimation measures, I think, but I don't believe any of them takes the cubic metres of motorbikes and required space between them into account.
Anyway, hope some devious yuons make a fortune out of selling bottles of petrol along the way.
- ali baba
- "Suit up!"
- Reactions: 12
- Posts: 2982
- Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:46 am
- Location: Equadorian Embassy
Didn't know men went to saunas to talk.0zirC wrote:Over the last week and a half since the incident happened, all the men talk about in the steam and sauna are the actual events, the shoddy camera footage and the cctv failures. My life is bored from all that talk.
Re Petrol
Hundreds of people blocking the roads all day after running out of fuel would be great PR for the gov't.
pro-cpp or(pro-opp)
pro-opposition
For those who aren't familiar with Licadho's anti-government stance.
Re Crowd size
Would it be easier (and more informative) to count the number of attendees of the services in Takeo?
C'mere c'meye
More complicated. It starts the debate for where the funeral started and how to define participation. I like where the media and Licadho stands: "Thousands".ali baba wrote:Would it be easier (and more informative) to count the number of attendees of the services in Takeo?
Did anybody else notice how Licadho quietly changed the number of expected participants after it went on for a while?
Bless
- LTO
- The Internet is my Friend
- Reactions: 1
- Posts: 6412
- Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:10 pm
- Location: Srok Khmer
- Contact:
Yes, it would be at least as difficult. Still boils down to judging crowd density, counting a small area, then multiplying it out.Alexandra wrote:More complicated. It starts the debate for where the funeral started and how to define participation. I like where the media and Licadho stands: "Thousands"...ali baba wrote:Would it be easier (and more informative) to count the number of attendees of the services in Takeo?
If i was writing the headline I would have gone with "Tens of Thousands..."
- ali baba
- "Suit up!"
- Reactions: 12
- Posts: 2982
- Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:46 am
- Location: Equadorian Embassy
Isn't the funeral being held in situ? In a single temple or house?Alexandra wrote:More complicated. It starts the debate for where the funeral started and how to define participation. I like where the media and Licadho stands: "Thousands".
Or did you mean to ask "when"?
C'mere c'meye
- LTO
- The Internet is my Friend
- Reactions: 1
- Posts: 6412
- Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:10 pm
- Location: Srok Khmer
- Contact:
Well then the answer is a straightforward no. It would be neither easier nor more informative.ali baba wrote:I wasn't asking about the procession hence why I said, "services in Takeo".
-
- Similar Topics
- Replies
- Views
- Last post
-
-
70-year-old British Ex-pat Shot Dead in Pattaya
by Bong Burgundy » Sat Jan 07, 2023 6:44 pm » in Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and Lao forums - 7 Replies
- 834 Views
-
Last post by telescopic
Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:42 pm
-
-
-
E-Mart to open 1st S.Korean convenience store in Cambodia
by Bong Burgundy » Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:55 am » in Cambodia News - 0 Replies
- 6579 Views
-
Last post by Bong Burgundy
Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:55 am
-
-
-
Barang thief posters at Smile Mini Mart
by MONEYBACKGUARANTEE » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:11 am » in Cambodia Speakeasy - 17 Replies
- 7646 Views
-
Last post by Soriya
Sun Sep 03, 2023 1:34 pm
-
-
-
Political Cartoons
by Prahok » Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:20 am » in Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and Lao forums - 0 Replies
- 949 Views
-
Last post by Prahok
Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:20 am
-
-
- 179 Replies
- 24482 Views
-
Last post by Scranter
Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:00 pm