Um humm... sounds legit. Sure seems like this is really about to happen now.
Interior Ministry files complaint to dissolve CNRP
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The majority of the industrial sector here is garment related, as well the the largest number of jobs. The main export markets are EU and Japan. China already makes his own clothes so almost all Chinese garment factories in the kingdom also export to the west or Japan.Felgerkarb wrote:How? With the Great Northern Dragon supporting them...bah. Western nations really overestimate their importance in this region. Sick of it.Oldnews wrote:"Mr HE would be vulnerable, in other words, to a vigorous international campaign to induce him to restore democracy—he just does not expect one. That may be the most depressing development of all".
The EU still applies favourable tariffs to Cambodia which give it the edge to compete with Vietnam as a garment manufacturing base. If the West decides to remove this special tariffs China just won't absorb to garment production, the main reason they have garment factories here is due to those special tariffs. Textile factories are very mobile unlike heavy industries and will move to another country in no time if they can't be profitable here. The garment sector becoming not profitable would be a huge blow to the Cambodian economy, it would create massive unemployment and the Chinese can't really do much about it. I am not sure about the political ramifications of such an event but from experience large numbers of unemployed people tend to vote for change and have little to loose from protesting without a welfare system.
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Almost exactly my thoughts on this.jackrossi wrote:The majority of the industrial sector here is garment related, as well the the largest number of jobs. The main export markets are EU and Japan. China already makes his own clothes so almost all Chinese garment factories in the kingdom also export to the west or Japan.Felgerkarb wrote:How? With the Great Northern Dragon supporting them...bah. Western nations really overestimate their importance in this region. Sick of it.Oldnews wrote:"Mr HE would be vulnerable, in other words, to a vigorous international campaign to induce him to restore democracy—he just does not expect one. That may be the most depressing development of all".
The EU still applies favourable tariffs to Cambodia which give it the edge to compete with Vietnam as a garment manufacturing base. If the West decides to remove this special tariffs China just won't absorb to garment production, the main reason they have garment factories here is due to those special tariffs. Textile factories are very mobile unlike heavy industries and will move to another country in no time if they can't be profitable here. The garment sector becoming not profitable would be a huge blow to the Cambodian economy, it would create massive unemployment and the Chinese can't really do much about it. I am not sure about the political ramifications of such an event but from experience large numbers of unemployed people tend to vote for change and have little to loose from protesting without a welfare system.
What do you think the chances of the EU making a change in direction regarding the recent political developments in Cambodia? News today is that Sweden, who has donated/invested something like 100 Million in recent years is not happy with Cambodia and are planning to review their relationship now. Rainsy, Sochua ect have been lobbying the EU and anyone who will listen to them as well.
The trouble is literally within days the only viable alternative to vote for will be squashed like a fly. Are we to believe that any of the remaing parties that will fill the power vacuum will be a viable opposition for the next election?
BTW, The local CPP guys have been making the rounds quite vigorously in recent days ive heard. Visiting homes unannounced and "asking" people to join the club if they haven't already and double checking their paperwork. This happened with my family last night. They were pretty unhappy about it and felt like there was nothing they could do.
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I was also thinking about these matters a few weeks ago when I heard or read a related news that contradicted the obvious conclusion I just had reached.kansaicanuck wrote:jackrossi wrote:The majority of the industrial sector here is garment related, as well the the largest number of jobs. The main export markets are EU and Japan. China already makes his own clothes so almost all Chinese garment factories in the kingdom also export to the west or Japan.Felgerkarb wrote:How? With the Great Northern Dragon supporting them...bah. Western nations really overestimate their importance in this region. Sick of it.Oldnews wrote:"Mr HE would be vulnerable, in other words, to a vigorous international campaign to induce him to restore democracy—he just does not expect one. That may be the most depressing development of all".
The EU still applies favourable tariffs to Cambodia which give it the edge to compete with Vietnam as a garment manufacturing base. If the West decides to remove this special tariffs China just won't absorb to garment production, the main reason they have garment factories here is due to those special tariffs. Textile factories are very mobile unlike heavy industries and will move to another country in no time if they can't be profitable here. The garment sector becoming not profitable would be a huge blow to the Cambodian economy, it would create massive unemployment and the Chinese can't really do much about it. I am not sure about the political ramifications of such an event but from experience large numbers of unemployed people tend to vote for change and have little to loose from protesting without a welfare system.
Almost exactly my thoughts on this.
What do you think the chances of the EU making a change in direction regarding the recent political developments in Cambodia? News today is that Sweden, who has donated/invested something like 100 Million in recent years is not happy with Cambodia and are planning to review their relationship now. Rainsy, Sochua ect have been lobbying the EU and anyone who will listen to them as well.
The trouble is literally within days the only viable alternative to vote for will be squashed like a fly. Are we to believe that any of the remaing parties that will fill the power vacuum will be a viable opposition for the next election?
I was also thinking about these matters a few weeks ago when I heard or read a related news that contradicted the obvious conclusion I just had reached.
BTW, The local CPP guys have been making the rounds quite vigorously in recent days ive heard. Visiting homes unannounced and "asking" people to join the club if they haven't already and double checking their paperwork. This happened with my family last night. They were pretty unhappy about it and felt like there was nothing they could do.
The news was about workers and manufacturers association joining voices to request for renewed or even extended current privileged export tariffs to UE and USA. It only made sense as it stated the rarity of such unison demand and that Cambodia is a rare exemple of a garment producing country where working conditions almost comply to ILO guidelines.
So despise the non brainer China retaliation political angle maybe the West don’t have that much of a choice.
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The EU is softer than a limp noodle in molasses. They won't do shit.
The EU is very soft, but they always take action if prompted by the US.LexusSchmexus wrote:The EU is softer than a limp noodle in molasses. They won't do shit.
The limp dicks in Bruxelles would be too scared to be blamed for the effect of their decision for taking it on their own.
Considering how fast the current ruling party backpedaled on the stop of repatriations of the former Cambodian criminals from the USA I think that they will keep their actions limited just enough not to anger the US to the point to warrant a reaction.
To conclude I think that nothing will happen in the short term.
Long term depends more on the USA-Cambodia relationship than anything else as HE would have to go really nuts before the EU does anything.
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