Myanmar Conflict
- Prahok
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Myanmar Conflict
25 months since the coup in Myanmar, and the situation remains tense, with the country in 2022 recording the highest number of battles outside of Ukraine.
The Junta extended emergency rule for another 6 months on Feb 1st, with full martial law declared in 37 townships. Reportedly Junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, informed the National Defence & Security Council that they only had full control over 2/3rds of townships. National Unity Government and ethnic resistance reports claim this figure is lower. The Junta is planning to hold a national election in August this year.
The NUG entered into an agreement with the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karenni National Progressive Party, All Burma Students Democratic Front and the Chin National Front to combine their efforts. The aim is to work towards a federal structure (something the ethnic groups were promised at independence in 1948 but never occurred and is the root of most of the conflict since). The combined forces create a very real threat to the Junta, as evidenced in Chin where the Chin National Army, the Chinland Defence Forces and the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) are reporting control over most of the region, with the Tatmadaw confined to a few larger towns. The locations of reported aerial bombing by the Tatmadaw over the past two months gives some credibility to their claims.
There is also the Northern Alliance, consisting of the KIA, Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, which have been fighting the Tatmadaw as a coalition since 2016.
There are several larger armed forces not involved, or embroiled in fights with other organisations including the Shan State Army South, Shan State Army North, National Democratic Alliance Army and the United Wa State Army, all operating in Shan State, often with conflicting goals.
Other major players, such as the Mon National Liberation Army and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army are nominally observing the ceasefire however are reportedly moving closer to joining the NUG-led anti-Junta coalition in active combat (soldiers from the DKBA may already be engaged, fighting as part of Karen National Liberation Army forces and the New Mon State Party hold the Deputy Minister for Defence portfolio in the NUG).
c/-wiki commons; an old map (Tatmadaw has lost control of a lot of territory since then), however provides an overview.
The Junta extended emergency rule for another 6 months on Feb 1st, with full martial law declared in 37 townships. Reportedly Junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, informed the National Defence & Security Council that they only had full control over 2/3rds of townships. National Unity Government and ethnic resistance reports claim this figure is lower. The Junta is planning to hold a national election in August this year.
The NUG entered into an agreement with the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karenni National Progressive Party, All Burma Students Democratic Front and the Chin National Front to combine their efforts. The aim is to work towards a federal structure (something the ethnic groups were promised at independence in 1948 but never occurred and is the root of most of the conflict since). The combined forces create a very real threat to the Junta, as evidenced in Chin where the Chin National Army, the Chinland Defence Forces and the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) are reporting control over most of the region, with the Tatmadaw confined to a few larger towns. The locations of reported aerial bombing by the Tatmadaw over the past two months gives some credibility to their claims.
There is also the Northern Alliance, consisting of the KIA, Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, which have been fighting the Tatmadaw as a coalition since 2016.
There are several larger armed forces not involved, or embroiled in fights with other organisations including the Shan State Army South, Shan State Army North, National Democratic Alliance Army and the United Wa State Army, all operating in Shan State, often with conflicting goals.
Other major players, such as the Mon National Liberation Army and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army are nominally observing the ceasefire however are reportedly moving closer to joining the NUG-led anti-Junta coalition in active combat (soldiers from the DKBA may already be engaged, fighting as part of Karen National Liberation Army forces and the New Mon State Party hold the Deputy Minister for Defence portfolio in the NUG).
c/-wiki commons; an old map (Tatmadaw has lost control of a lot of territory since then), however provides an overview.
- Phuket2006
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a very good read;
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analy ... n.html/amp
Myanmar’s military coup in 2021 has triggered a widespread humanitarian crisis but also a breakdown in the rule of law. And the security situation is getting worse by the week. With the rise of lawlessness, the coup has provided freedom for cyber-criminals, human traffickers and gunrunners to operate along the border with Thailand. In the city of Shwe Kokko, Karen State opposite Thailand’s Mae Sot, Chinese triad gangs and criminals are exploiting the turmoil following the military takeover to expand their criminal activities.
Shwe Kokko, just north of Mae Sot, is notorious as a criminal hub for online gambling, scamming and trafficking.
The city is also known as Myanmar’s Silicon Valley, but since the coup its high-tech expertise and infrastructure has been geared to transnational criminal activity. Among the victims are foreigners lured to the city by offers of high-paying jobs in Thailand.
Last year, Filipinos, Malaysians, Indonesians, Indians, Thais, Taiwanese, Bangladeshis, Brazilians, Kenyans, Colombians and Hong Kongers traveled to Thailand on the promise of jobs, only to find themselves trafficked across the border to Shwe Kokko.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analy ... n.html/amp
Myanmar’s military coup in 2021 has triggered a widespread humanitarian crisis but also a breakdown in the rule of law. And the security situation is getting worse by the week. With the rise of lawlessness, the coup has provided freedom for cyber-criminals, human traffickers and gunrunners to operate along the border with Thailand. In the city of Shwe Kokko, Karen State opposite Thailand’s Mae Sot, Chinese triad gangs and criminals are exploiting the turmoil following the military takeover to expand their criminal activities.
Shwe Kokko, just north of Mae Sot, is notorious as a criminal hub for online gambling, scamming and trafficking.
The city is also known as Myanmar’s Silicon Valley, but since the coup its high-tech expertise and infrastructure has been geared to transnational criminal activity. Among the victims are foreigners lured to the city by offers of high-paying jobs in Thailand.
Last year, Filipinos, Malaysians, Indonesians, Indians, Thais, Taiwanese, Bangladeshis, Brazilians, Kenyans, Colombians and Hong Kongers traveled to Thailand on the promise of jobs, only to find themselves trafficked across the border to Shwe Kokko.
"We are turning into a nation of whimpering slaves to Fear—fear of war, fear of poverty, fear of random terrorism, or suddenly getting locked up in a military detention camp on vague charges of being a Terrorist sympathizer." HST
- Prahok
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Saw Chit Tu who runs the place is a piece of work. I believe he was one of the characters behind the betrayal of Manerplaw in 1995.Phuket2006 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:41 amShwe Kokko, just north of Mae Sot, is notorious as a criminal hub for online gambling, scamming and trafficking.
At least his transformation of the DKBA to a Tatmadaw aligned Karen Border Guard Force resulted in many members breaking away, forming DKBA-5 and realigning with the KNLA.
I think it's a bit strange that the situation in Myanmar ha been going on for so long, has caused so many deaths, but very few top powers give a damn, whereas Ukraine is a year old, and almost every single EU and western state has universally condemned Russia.
Rightfully, both should be pariahs.
Rightfully, both should be pariahs.
'The general population doesn't know what's happening, and it doesn't even know that it doesn't know.'
Noam Chomsky
Noam Chomsky
- Phuket2006
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Unfortunately, a conflict affecting western countries is a bigger story than one in SE Asia that is self inflicted>
look how the world ignored the KR in the 70's-80's
look how the world ignored the KR in the 70's-80's
"We are turning into a nation of whimpering slaves to Fear—fear of war, fear of poverty, fear of random terrorism, or suddenly getting locked up in a military detention camp on vague charges of being a Terrorist sympathizer." HST
There is one well known Aus expat who has frequent trips to Myanmar for 'business'- he must have links with Tatmadaw but claims he knows nothing, although needs to go every month or so to keep the business over there going and the staff fed.
Unsure how ethical this is as not exactly a humanitarian or vaguely important industry to the country, but nothing outwardly dodgy like drugs or gambling (who knows). By accounts plenty of Japs, Koreans and Taiwanese happy to go in an out in safety.
Can't judge, but would you still rub shoulders with the Tatmadaw?
Unsure how ethical this is as not exactly a humanitarian or vaguely important industry to the country, but nothing outwardly dodgy like drugs or gambling (who knows). By accounts plenty of Japs, Koreans and Taiwanese happy to go in an out in safety.
Can't judge, but would you still rub shoulders with the Tatmadaw?
- Prahok
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Drone technology is reportedly employed by Chin forces to engage Junta aerial resupply, traditionally one of the Tatmadaw's advantages over ethnic opposition.
The PDF have also reportedly captured a gold mine, though whether they are able to retain control or have sufficient air defence in place to undertake gold mining activities is doubtful.
The PDF have also reportedly captured a gold mine, though whether they are able to retain control or have sufficient air defence in place to undertake gold mining activities is doubtful.
- Prahok
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There is growing Karen angst regarding both Shwe Kokko and KK (further South & controlled by the KNU, but a place with many similarities). The angst appears to stem from treating with Junta-aligned Karen organisations as much as the moral implications.Phuket2006 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:41 amShwe Kokko, just north of Mae Sot, is notorious as a criminal hub for online gambling, scamming and trafficking.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ka ... litia.html
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The whole place has been a failed state since the British pulled out.
There are three classes of people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, those who do not see. ~ Leonardo da Vinci
Where exactly is Aunty Su? What are her last known whereabouts? What is being done with her?
In Africa, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Bangladesh as well. British bureaucrats drew borders with zero regard for ethnicity etc.Phnom Penh Trader wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 1:51 pmThe whole place has been a failed state since the British pulled out.
The possibility that they wanted conflict should not be ignored, divide and rule.
And a conflict after they left could be used to justify their presence before, and to influence politics afterwards
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As of yesterday, reportedly she is in solitary confinement in Naypyidaw Prison.klarbrunn wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:01 amWhere exactly is Aunty Su? What are her last known whereabouts? What is being done with her?
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nl ... u-kyi.html
- Prahok
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Myawaddy is reportedly under attack from the KNLA & PDF. If the Junta lose control over either Myawaddy or Kawkariek, they lose their primary land access to Thailand (Three Pagoda Pass appears still under Tatmadaw control, but after that it is a long trip from Yangon via Shan State or Tanintharyi Divison)
- Prahok
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26 months since the coup in Myanmar, and the dry season has arrived with the Tatmadaw launching offensives and resupplying isolated units whilst the weather supports the type of logistics upon which they heavily rely.
In Kayin/Kayah, the Karenni Army & KNDF reportedly took another Tatmadaw border post and the KNDF engaged in several battles in Pekon Township, with their control over the Thai/Myanmar border expanding. The Tatmadaw also reportedly engaged Karenni forces in Demoso (possibly resulting in a Tatmadaw withdrawal) & Shadaw townships. The KNLA reported killing 40 Tatmadaw in one encounter in Kyainseikgyi Township, Kayin State, pushing the Tatmadaw out of the area. The KNLA and took control of large sections of the border, pushing the Tatmadaw out of several outposts and one key base. At the end of the month the KNLA & PDF launched an offensive against the important border town of Myawaddy, though the Junta reportedly retains control.
In Mon/Tanintharyi, the Junta shelled a number of townships under PDF control in the Tanintharyi Region. Launglon has been something of a focus for these attacks. The Tatmadaw base in the strategically important township of Kyaikto, Mon State, was attacked by PDF/KNLA forces several times during the month.
In Magwe/Mandalay/Bago/Yangon/Ayeryawady, attacks against the Tatmadaw continued throughout the month with the PDF and YRA being heavily involved, notably around Tinlin Township in Magwe. The Tatmadaw captured a PDF base in Yesagyo Township. Several punitive attacks by the Tatmadaw on communities in Madya Township, Mandalay, were reported. There were reports of heavy fighting in Nyaunglebin District, Bago, throughout March.
In Arakan/Chin/Sagaing, the Tatmadaw moved large amounts of reinforcements into Chin in a bid to reinforce Junta strongholds and to launch an offensive to retake key towns whilst the weather remains dry. The town of Thantlang is likely to be a focus as it is both the largest urban centre under Chin control and also directly threatens the capital of Hakkah (under Junta control). Chin forces attacked convoys throughout the month, reporting a large number of Tatmadaw casualties. Members of India’s Assam Rifles crossed the border in Chin State and made some arrests, causing concern amongst border communities. The Tatmadaw reportedly destroyed 269 houses in Tham Mar Yoe Village, Wetlet Township in a punitive raid in Sagaing.
In Shan/Kachin, China is facilitating negotiations between the United Wa State Army, the Shan State Progress Party and the National Democratic Alliance Army and the Junta in a bid to reduce the level of conflict in Shan State (notably the areas near the China border). Other EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organisations) including the KIA, SSAS, AA & TNLA rejected peace talks with the Junta. There was heavy fighting in Southern Shan, notably around Pinlaung involving the KNDF.
c/- @ThomasVLinge – areas of control as of March 1st 2023
In Kayin/Kayah, the Karenni Army & KNDF reportedly took another Tatmadaw border post and the KNDF engaged in several battles in Pekon Township, with their control over the Thai/Myanmar border expanding. The Tatmadaw also reportedly engaged Karenni forces in Demoso (possibly resulting in a Tatmadaw withdrawal) & Shadaw townships. The KNLA reported killing 40 Tatmadaw in one encounter in Kyainseikgyi Township, Kayin State, pushing the Tatmadaw out of the area. The KNLA and took control of large sections of the border, pushing the Tatmadaw out of several outposts and one key base. At the end of the month the KNLA & PDF launched an offensive against the important border town of Myawaddy, though the Junta reportedly retains control.
In Mon/Tanintharyi, the Junta shelled a number of townships under PDF control in the Tanintharyi Region. Launglon has been something of a focus for these attacks. The Tatmadaw base in the strategically important township of Kyaikto, Mon State, was attacked by PDF/KNLA forces several times during the month.
In Magwe/Mandalay/Bago/Yangon/Ayeryawady, attacks against the Tatmadaw continued throughout the month with the PDF and YRA being heavily involved, notably around Tinlin Township in Magwe. The Tatmadaw captured a PDF base in Yesagyo Township. Several punitive attacks by the Tatmadaw on communities in Madya Township, Mandalay, were reported. There were reports of heavy fighting in Nyaunglebin District, Bago, throughout March.
In Arakan/Chin/Sagaing, the Tatmadaw moved large amounts of reinforcements into Chin in a bid to reinforce Junta strongholds and to launch an offensive to retake key towns whilst the weather remains dry. The town of Thantlang is likely to be a focus as it is both the largest urban centre under Chin control and also directly threatens the capital of Hakkah (under Junta control). Chin forces attacked convoys throughout the month, reporting a large number of Tatmadaw casualties. Members of India’s Assam Rifles crossed the border in Chin State and made some arrests, causing concern amongst border communities. The Tatmadaw reportedly destroyed 269 houses in Tham Mar Yoe Village, Wetlet Township in a punitive raid in Sagaing.
In Shan/Kachin, China is facilitating negotiations between the United Wa State Army, the Shan State Progress Party and the National Democratic Alliance Army and the Junta in a bid to reduce the level of conflict in Shan State (notably the areas near the China border). Other EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organisations) including the KIA, SSAS, AA & TNLA rejected peace talks with the Junta. There was heavy fighting in Southern Shan, notably around Pinlaung involving the KNDF.
c/- @ThomasVLinge – areas of control as of March 1st 2023
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