Myanmar Conflict

[Phuket2006]

Joke of the day

Junta ‘likely’ to hold polls in 2025:
Myanmar’s junta will likely hold elections in 2025, party officials told Agence France-Presse on Tuesday, even as the military struggles to crush resistance to its rule.

The military justified its February 2021 putsch with unsubstantiated claims of widespread fraud in 2020 elections won resoundingly by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy.

The coup ended a 10-year democratic experiment and plunged the country into turmoil, with the military now battling opponents across swathes of the country.

“Elections are likely to be held in 2025,” a senior member of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party told AFP, requesting anonymity.
The United States has said any elections under the junta would be a “sham” and analysts say they would be targeted by the junta’s opponents.
https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/junt ... officials/

[Prahok]

Joke of the day

I am not entirely sure the Junta is going to make it to the punchline in 2025. The Tatmadaw are being attritted at a furious rate.

[Prahok]

The military airbase at Naypyidaw was hit by drones on Friday. It's not the first time it has been hit, but is the first time the event was recorded

The KNLA also took a large Tamadaw base at Ratalang near the Thai-Myanmar border.

[Prahok]

Another assassination of a Junta crony, this one allegedly an arms dealer, in downtown Yangon.

https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/junta-cr ... group.html

[Prahok]

Junta is running very low on cash. They are requiring all Myanmar citizens working overseas to pay 25% tax and send 25% of their earnings back to Myanmar via Junta affiliated banks at official exchange rates. Any renewal of passports whilst overseas needs to be accompanied by tax certificate confirming compliance. Given those payments are likely to be beyond the capacity of the cast majority of their expatriate citizens, who are using most of their salary to simply survive, it is difficult to see how this will work.

https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/my ... ports.html

[Phuket2006]

Myanmar Now reported that a recent amendment to the Union Tax Law requires overseas workers to present proof of tax payments or pay back taxes on the spot in order to renew their passports.
A staffer at a passport office told the outlet that if overseas workers don’t produce those certificates, they can pay all of their taxes to the relevant embassy in a lump sum. Otherwise, the staffer said, a passport won’t be renewed. However, Myanmar Now said that under the tax law amendment, announced on September 23, regime officials can even revoke passports, impose travel bans, or bring criminal charges if people refuse to comply.

Myanmar Now explained that the amendment removes a tax exemption that has been honoured since 2012 on two types of foreign income. The first is migrant worker salaries, which will now be taxed according to the amount earned, while the other appears to be business or freelance income, which is now subject to a flat 10 percent tax.

IN reality this will NOT affect many as note:

Under the new taxation law, expats earning more than US$14,200 a year under the regime’s exchange rate will be required to pay 25 percent tax.

The move sparked a backlash in Thailand which hosts up to 5 million migrant workers from Myanmar.

A migrant in Thailand said: “We only earn a small salary and have to pay rent, utilities and for food. We will have nothing left if we have to pay income tax.”

Most Burmese workers earn far less than than 42,600 baht/month ( $1200)> usually under 20,000 baht/month with common laborers earning under 15,000

[Prahok]

IN reality this will NOT affect many as note:
Most Burmese workers earn far less than than 42,600 baht/month ( $1200)> usually under 20,000 baht/month with common laborers earning under 15,000

For the income tax law, many qualified Myanmar expatriate citizens are earning far above this level. Perhaps not the majority, but skilled labour fleeing Myanmar for safer climes such as Japan and Korea is abundant.

Even still, the remittance law is another matter entirely and applies to all regardless of income level.

[spitthedog]

IN reality this will NOT affect many as note:
Most Burmese workers earn far less than than 42,600 baht/month ( $1200)> usually under 20,000 baht/month with common laborers earning under 15,000

For the income tax law, many qualified Myanmar expatriate citizens are earning far above this level. Perhaps not the majority, but skilled labour fleeing Myanmar for safer climes such as Japan and Korea is abundant.

Even still, the remittance law is another matter entirely and applies to all regardless of income level.

Presumably, 10% or 25% of one years earnings is given to get the passport?

[Prahok]

Presumably, 10% or 25% of one years earnings is given to get the passport?

I think there has to be proof of payment of tax and possibly proof of remittances being sent back to Myanmar via official channels. From what I understand there are no guidelines or regulations in place to determine how this would work.

[Prahok]

Big attacks are underway by various anti-Junta forces; clearly coordinated.

Several border towns have fallen and attacks ongoing in Kachin, northern Shan, Sagaing, Chin, Karenni, Karen and Tannitharyi. Chin Shwe Haw appears have been liberated and the Tatmadaw are under attack at the entrance to Laisho. The KIA took another outpost today in Kachin, and the KNLA may have taken the key town of Kawkareik on the road to Mae Sot.

Bit hard to keep up with it all, however it appears the various anti-Junta forces determined that the Tatmadaw is sufficiently weakened that they will be unable to fight effectively across multiple fronts.

[RobW]

Bit hard to keep up with it all

It is.
Prakok. If it's easy for you, could you post a synopsis of the various factions and where their funding comes from?

[Prahok]

Prakok. If it's easy for you, could you post a synopsis of the various factions and where their funding comes from?

The opening post has something of an overview of the various actors, however when it comes to funding.....

The factions in Myanmar can be split into three broad categories; the Tatmadaw (Junta forces), the People’s Defence Force (the armed wing of the opposition National Unity Government) and the ethnic armies.

The Tatmadaw are funded through conventional government appropriation, though individual units also have a responsibility financing their basic living so revenue-raise through various means in the areas they control. The Generals control large corporations, an overview of which is in the following link https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56133766. Russia has shown a willingness to support the Tatmadaw directly whilst China is more reticent.

The PDF are funded by the NUG, who have an interesting array of financing through selling bonds, selling economic concessions which are to be taken up once they regain control of Myanmar, and through large donations from the Myanmar diaspora, notably the Burmese (an example of which includes funding via revenue from a popular on-line war game https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/my ... -game.html ).

The ethnic armies fall into 3 broad categories; openly hostile to the Junta, neutral, allied. In February 2021, the majority of ethnic armies rapidly moved from neutral to openly hostile, with a few moving from allied to neutral. Very few remain in the “allied” camp, and those that do are shedding members.

All ethnic armies raise funds through donations from their diaspora, cross-border trade (primarily gems, timber and to a varying extent, drugs) and taxes & fees within areas they control. Those allied and neutral have the additional ability to revenue-raise through opening casinos, scam-centres, brothels and similar.

None of the ethnic armies are receiving open funding from an international government. The absence of portable air-defence systems suggests they are not receiving much in the way of undisclosed support either. There is official international support to non-combat aspects of the various ethnic bodies (health, education etc), though this is usually in the form of services rather than funds.

[Prahok]

C/- Thomas van Linge

[scoffer]

C/- Thomas van Linge

I did not know that there were so many different factions involved in fighting the Junta.