Dump dollars, buy riel?
Thanks for your thoughts. Buying AUD now is like buying high. It has soared against the dollar already. And RMB has gained 20% already. It would be better to buy a currency where the appreciation hasn't happened yet but probably will, don't you think? As for THB, it's not at all connected to the dollar, it's soared from 45 10 years or so ago to under 30 today. It's not "pegged."
AUD probably can't go much higher but then who knows? I have to deal with the possibility that all indications are false or red herrings and the USD might appreciate for some reason. If that happens, you don't want to have bought AUD at its current high price.
AUD probably can't go much higher but then who knows? I have to deal with the possibility that all indications are false or red herrings and the USD might appreciate for some reason. If that happens, you don't want to have bought AUD at its current high price.
- OrangeDragon
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don't take all the media and hype to much to heart. at the end of the day the deficit/debt is fairly insignificant... the real thing to concern yourself with is the GDP. When that falls, the value of American currency falls with it... as we're not longer taking in revenue. Beyond that the rest is a lot of political spin, talk, distractions and numbers in computers that NO BODY wants to see really collapse. Most industrialized world governments own, to varied degrees, a stake in that debt... in the form of treasury notes. If the dollar were to collapse, then so would those notes with it... meaning suddenly those governments don't own and value in that paper and would have sudden economic upheaval as their own gross value collapses with it. They're not going to let that happen.redcup wrote:Yes, but I'm unsophisticated in investing and have always kept my money in bank accounts. I wish I knew a better way. These days I just really don't know what to do. I just know that I'm not comfortable holding USD when it's clear the USG is deliberately trying to destroy it.cambod wrote:
They're has to be thousands of ways to invest your money in a better way than stock piling Riel.
One of the benefits of owing everybody large amounts of money... while they may talk shit on you all day long, they aren't going to let anyone fuck up your cash flow in a serious way because it would fuck up theirs as well.
Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves only the unanimity of the graveyard.
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And yes every Cambodian who has borrowed money off a microfinance organization and a moneylender has a Lexus or a Range Rover. If you haven't figured out that they haven't, I'd guess you ain't realized that the credit bubble is waiting to burst here.redcup wrote:Sure, just sell all the Range Rovers and Lexi!Uncle Monty wrote:Silly question, is there enough money out there to pay off the loans from microfinance and money lenders and the ADB and the World Bank and China and the EU and etc?
Dictated to a slave and sent by carrier pigeon.
Thanks for that point of view. Maybe the danger isn't the dollar collapsing, just continuing to weaken. I mean, THailand is undermining its own USD reserves by letting the baht strengthen as much as it has, aren't they? Yet they continue to do it, as do the other countries whose currencies have appreciated a lot.OrangeDragon wrote:don't take all the media and hype to much to heart. at the end of the day the deficit/debt is fairly insignificant... the real thing to concern yourself with is the GDP. When that falls, the value of American currency falls with it... as we're not longer taking in revenue. Beyond that the rest is a lot of political spin, talk, distractions and numbers in computers that NO BODY wants to see really collapse. Most industrialized world governments own, to varied degrees, a stake in that debt... in the form of treasury notes. If the dollar were to collapse, then so would those notes with it... meaning suddenly those governments don't own and value in that paper and would have sudden economic upheaval as their own gross value collapses with it. They're not going to let that happen.redcup wrote:Yes, but I'm unsophisticated in investing and have always kept my money in bank accounts. I wish I knew a better way. These days I just really don't know what to do. I just know that I'm not comfortable holding USD when it's clear the USG is deliberately trying to destroy it.cambod wrote:
They're has to be thousands of ways to invest your money in a better way than stock piling Riel.
One of the benefits of owing everybody large amounts of money... while they may talk shit on you all day long, they aren't going to let anyone fuck up your cash flow in a serious way because it would fuck up theirs as well.
And didn't you earlier advise another poster to buy Riel for those high interest rates?
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I was having a discussion with one of the guys that set up Acleda about this exact subject on new years eve, and this is how he explained it to me. Microfinance institutions offering superior rates on Riel indicates that they are mitigating their risk. They lend almost exclusively in Riel, almost all business in the informal agricultural sector that is the main benefactor of micro finance is conducted in Riel. At present the Riel is pegged to the USD, this pegging is easy for the goverment as the amount of Riel in circulation in Cambodia is dwarfed by the amount of USD in circulation. If this policy is to change there will be a large debate and we will likely see it coming a mile off and is unlikely any time soon, for savers this isn't likely an issue as most saving plans aren't locked in for more than a year so we can easily pull our money, microfinance institutions are locked in for a longer term so it's always dangerous to be dealing in two currencies.plebeian wrote:What does the reduction in the USD term saving rate and the increase/same term saving rate for KHR indicate??
Infact the local currency market is so small in Cambodia that it is virtually controlled by a few wholesale money changers based around Psar Tmei, the Riel has a natural rythm of strengthening and weakening around the harverst within the 3800 to 4200 range. If it goes beyond that range the central bank goes down to Psar Tmei and litterally buys or sells a few hundred thousand dollars worth of Riel and the price self corrects.
Exactly, maybe now is a good time to buy a bit of ye' old US mint, since it's a tad down at the moment, gold is overbought short term, so is the DOW, so keeping in it cash in a high interest bank account might be the best choice at the monent.
Last edited by teamone on Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
- OrangeDragon
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absolutely take advantage of the high rates, but just don't be as alarmed about the dollar running into no where. the governments let their money wax and wane against one another... or more accurately, the banks and bankers do, because it generates money and trade. if they all stayed stable all the time there would be no currency market activity because no one would think they could make a bunch of money in exchanging.redcup wrote:Thanks for that point of view. Maybe the danger isn't the dollar collapsing, just continuing to weaken. I mean, THailand is undermining its own USD reserves by letting the baht strengthen as much as it has, aren't they? Yet they continue to do it, as do the other countries whose currencies have appreciated a lot.OrangeDragon wrote:don't take all the media and hype to much to heart. at the end of the day the deficit/debt is fairly insignificant... the real thing to concern yourself with is the GDP. When that falls, the value of American currency falls with it... as we're not longer taking in revenue. Beyond that the rest is a lot of political spin, talk, distractions and numbers in computers that NO BODY wants to see really collapse. Most industrialized world governments own, to varied degrees, a stake in that debt... in the form of treasury notes. If the dollar were to collapse, then so would those notes with it... meaning suddenly those governments don't own and value in that paper and would have sudden economic upheaval as their own gross value collapses with it. They're not going to let that happen.redcup wrote:Yes, but I'm unsophisticated in investing and have always kept my money in bank accounts. I wish I knew a better way. These days I just really don't know what to do. I just know that I'm not comfortable holding USD when it's clear the USG is deliberately trying to destroy it.cambod wrote:
They're has to be thousands of ways to invest your money in a better way than stock piling Riel.
One of the benefits of owing everybody large amounts of money... while they may talk shit on you all day long, they aren't going to let anyone fuck up your cash flow in a serious way because it would fuck up theirs as well.
And didn't you earlier advise another poster to buy Riel for those high interest rates?
no one buys a stock that never moves. currency is just like any other market... it has its ups and downs, now mostly controlled by those who trade in it and how much they will buy/sell it for, and none of those controlling it want it to collapse.
if you look at most of those predicting it and making a big deal about it, they were doing it 20 years ago as well... each time proved wrong. each time getting a little richer selling their doom and gloom books, dvds, reports, etc.
Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves only the unanimity of the graveyard.
Robert H. Jackson, West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette
Robert H. Jackson, West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette
- Khmeria
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redcup wrote:But how do you buy and keep them if you don't have a bank account that's denominated in that currency? Buy them at a PP money dealer and stuff them in your mattress?Khmeria wrote:even just in currencies there are lots of others
I have the same problem with people who say buy gold and silver. I have no safe place to keep them.
I'm here in Cambo and am trying to deal with what options I realistically have.
And going to another country and opening a bank account in one's preferred currency is not so easy anymore unless you're a resident there.
You don't have to physically keep them. You can just invest in them using forex or whatever. If you bet on the AUD on forex and the dollar depreciates 50% against it, you make a lot of money.
Otherwise you have to look for banks, either online or in places you travel, that will let you open up an account in other currencies. Not super easy, but it can be done if you look into it.
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Great, if you want to buy/sell shares in Phnom Penh Water Supply, otherwise absolutely nothing going on there.cambod wrote: How's the Cambodian Stock Exchange going these days?
Romantic Cambodia is dead and gone. It's with McKinley in the grave.
Figures. Thanks.Lucky Lucan wrote:Great, if you want to buy/sell shares in Phnom Penh Water Supply, otherwise absolutely nothing going on there.cambod wrote: How's the Cambodian Stock Exchange going these days?
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For some strange reason, I'm not terribly surprised.Lucky Lucan wrote:Great, if you want to buy/sell shares in Phnom Penh Water Supply, otherwise absolutely nothing going on there.cambod wrote: How's the Cambodian Stock Exchange going these days?
ירי ילדים והפצצת אזרחים דורש אומץ, כמו גם הטרדה מינית של עובדי ההוראה.
How do you do this? I mean, I know there are internet sites that let you trade Forex, but can you actually buy a foreign currency and not take delivery of it? Or not have to transfer it to a bank account denominated in that currency? I asked XE Trade if I could buy currency from them and keep it in my own account at XE, and they said no, the money you buy has to be transferred to a bank account denominated in that currency.Khmeria wrote:redcup wrote:But how do you buy and keep them if you don't have a bank account that's denominated in that currency? Buy them at a PP money dealer and stuff them in your mattress?Khmeria wrote:even just in currencies there are lots of others
I have the same problem with people who say buy gold and silver. I have no safe place to keep them.
I'm here in Cambo and am trying to deal with what options I realistically have.
And going to another country and opening a bank account in one's preferred currency is not so easy anymore unless you're a resident there.
You don't have to physically keep them. You can just invest in them using forex or whatever. If you bet on the AUD on forex and the dollar depreciates 50% against it, you make a lot of money.
If one could keep the money in an account one has at the forex trading house, that solves a lot of problems (unless the forex company goes bankrupt). With some currencies that have close to zero interest rates, you wouldn't be losing much interest, either. Plus you wouldn't have to deal with the ever-more-outrageous bank fees for every little thing.
Thanks to everyone who replied to this thread, especially OrangeDragon, whose words struck me as very wise.
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you trade in dollarsredcup wrote:How do you do this? I mean, I know there are internet sites that let you trade Forex, but can you actually buy a foreign currency and not take delivery of it? Or not have to transfer it to a bank account denominated in that currency? I asked XE Trade if I could buy currency from them and keep it in my own account at XE, and they said no, the money you buy has to be transferred to a bank account denominated in that currency.Khmeria wrote:redcup wrote:But how do you buy and keep them if you don't have a bank account that's denominated in that currency? Buy them at a PP money dealer and stuff them in your mattress?Khmeria wrote:even just in currencies there are lots of others
I have the same problem with people who say buy gold and silver. I have no safe place to keep them.
I'm here in Cambo and am trying to deal with what options I realistically have.
And going to another country and opening a bank account in one's preferred currency is not so easy anymore unless you're a resident there.
You don't have to physically keep them. You can just invest in them using forex or whatever. If you bet on the AUD on forex and the dollar depreciates 50% against it, you make a lot of money.
If one could keep the money in an account one has at the forex trading house, that solves a lot of problems (unless the forex company goes bankrupt). With some currencies that have close to zero interest rates, you wouldn't be losing much interest, either. Plus you wouldn't have to deal with the ever-more-outrageous bank fees for every little thing.
the only way to keep foreign currency is to exchange it somewhere and either hold onto it or deposit it into a foreign bank account
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