Bitcoins worth more than gold
First time serious people have talked about it affecting the wider economy. The movement of any 1tn asset class will
Is Bitcoin affecting the market or is the market affecting Bitcoin? I personally do not think it is Bitcoin that is crashing the market. I think that it is the market crashing that is also reflected on Bitcoin.
In this post I'll focus much on one particular date: May 19. I believe that is when we started to really see the signs of an eminent crash that I hinted about earlier in this thread but was disregarded for being wrong on a date prediction.
On May 19 the SEC approved SR-ICC-2021-007 which tightens up what can be used as collateral, reducing overall capital. Meaning that institutions can no longer say that they hold billions of dollars of useless things like Dogecoin and Bitcoin to use as collateral for their margin accounts. Pumping shit coins is no longer effective to meet collateral deposit requirements.
Institutions can no longer say "look I'm a Dogecollieionaire!" The ICC would be like "WTF? Show us the money!"
Meanwhile, margin debt is at an all time high:
History shows that spikes in margin debt are immediately followed by sudden flash crashes of the market. The last time that happened was during the 2008 housing crisis when margin debt reached $150B. This time we're looking at $350B until March, and since then probably closer to $400B. If the market responds similar to how it has in the past we're probably looking at hitting -$450B.
On May 21 reverse repos reached $369B with 52 participants. On May 6 it was at $155B. Notice the spike occurred on or around my favorite day in this post: May 19. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Back to crypto!
On May 19 there was a huge spike in volume for Bitcoin from large selloffs from 8:50 AM EST until around 9:10 AM.
What's going on here? Did Elon tweet an emoji? Did a Chinese village have a power outage? Did Biden vomit a gov't coin proposal on the economy?
2 days earlier on May 17 the OCC issued a statement requiring clearing members to deposit $588,378,155 by May 19, 9 AM EST. This was after a liquidity test earlier that did not go so well.
But wait a minute, Bitcoin crashed at 9 AM EST on 19 May, when OCC members had to increase the clearing fund size. Institutions dumped crypto because they needed cash.
Everything indicates that we are heading towards a market crash and hyperinflation. It's bad.
The idea that Bitcoin is decentralized and so on is great, but it is heavily manipulated and is in no way immune to the shockwaves that the rest of the market is sending on its way down. Crypto has been pumped by institutions and propagandized by naive evangelists who believe that they are Tyler Durden behind a computer screen and a super fast expensive computer used to lose a lot of money at high pace trading crypto on margin.
There are some easily searchable, good posts online about how Bitcoin is being manipulated following the Wyckoff method. We are currently in the dump phase, although FOMO type "buy the dip" investors are slowing it down. They'll get burned later.
Compare with February-May:
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^ I don't have a clue personally.
It is the opinion of the highly respected analysts at Rabobank, not mine.
It is the opinion of the highly respected analysts at Rabobank, not mine.
It's a pipe dream that a fairytale asset backed only by speculation and dreams to get rich quick have this impact on the market.
They have looked at 2 graphs, seen a correlation and drawn a wrongful conclusion. As statisticians know, correlation does not imply causation. For example the age of Miss America correlates to murders by hot objects.
Reverse repo usage is soaring. S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield has fallen below zero, hitting a 40 year low. But of course none of this matters because the only thing relevant is that evangelists trade speculative assets like Bitcoin, because there is some tiny correlation in 24 hour market graphs.
The worlds central banks have figured out how to make interest rates obsolete.
Inflation is now managed by freezing wages and putting all that cash that would otherwise cause inflation into assets.
Demand thirst is slaked by oversupply or hoarding.
The central banks are the markets.
Inflation is now managed by freezing wages and putting all that cash that would otherwise cause inflation into assets.
Demand thirst is slaked by oversupply or hoarding.
The central banks are the markets.
I'm expecting a significant correction at some point but I am invested in a few 3X leveraged ETFs. You really need stop-loss attached to these so a 10% market correction doesn't wipe out 30% of your portfolio. I never hold them very long.
TQQQ
SPXL
UDOW
I also picked up some BYND shares as it has dropped significantly into good value territory. Tempting to drop out with today's big day but will hold for now.
I had bitcoin exposure in GBTC which did not treat me well, I no longer have it but that is trading at a discount to NAV and could be a good investment depending on how you feel about Bitcoin. It is also converting to a Bitcoin ETF at some point soon.
TQQQ
SPXL
UDOW
I also picked up some BYND shares as it has dropped significantly into good value territory. Tempting to drop out with today's big day but will hold for now.
I had bitcoin exposure in GBTC which did not treat me well, I no longer have it but that is trading at a discount to NAV and could be a good investment depending on how you feel about Bitcoin. It is also converting to a Bitcoin ETF at some point soon.
"Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach. Those who can't teach, teach English."
Credit Jacked Camry & LTO
Credit Jacked Camry & LTO
Cryptos are in classic bulltrap.
Don't give a fuck me. Despite making a complete arse of most aspects of my life I have yet to make a poor financial decision - this could be the first, but as a purely speculative move I'm happy with it.
It was nice being a grand a week up every week for a year for doing diddly bar chucking 8k at it so will keep to my original plan of wait 2 years and see.
It was nice being a grand a week up every week for a year for doing diddly bar chucking 8k at it so will keep to my original plan of wait 2 years and see.
You do realise that is three year old news?spitthedog wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 6:49 pm"China has banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions, and warned investors against speculative crypto trading.
It was China’s latest attempt to clamp down on what was a burgeoning digital trading market. Under the ban, such institutions, including banks and online payments channels, must not offer clients any service involving cryptocurrency, such as registration, trading, clearing and settlement, three industry bodies said in a joint statement on Tuesday"
https://www.reuters.com/technology/chin ... 021-05-18/
Here's the real reason for Bitcoin's rise
https://i.postimg.cc/d1gJ6YsJ/E2-Yjk95-Xo-AIs8-T.jpg
The buy the dip investors are mainly institutions who are buying billions of dollars worth although I'm happy to see that a lot of retail also bought. It's all on chain and can be observed. Unlike rehypothicated shares, bonds, paper gold etc.
That wasn't a Wykoff pattern. It was a volcano signaling the future adoption of Bitcoin as the national currency of El Salvador.
https://i.postimg.cc/6qXQmjJ1/E3j-Ja-Xg-WQAY2x-BG.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/Gpvw5cLd/Screensho ... rowser.jpg
- Orichá
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No, it is still quite current and ongoing right now, too.. China's central bank is exerting more oversight and the government in Sichuan is shutting off the electricity supply to many miners. Good news. . . . .Nikamoto wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:14 amYou do realise that is three year old news?spitthedog wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 6:49 pm"China has banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions, and warned investors against speculative crypto trading.
It was China’s latest attempt to clamp down on what was a burgeoning digital trading market. Under the ban, such institutions, including banks and online payments channels, must not offer clients any service involving cryptocurrency, such as registration, trading, clearing and settlement, three industry bodies said in a joint statement on Tuesday"
https://www.reuters.com/technology/chin ... 021-05-18/
"Bitcoin keeps falling as China ramps up the pressure on cryptos"
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/investin ... index.html
"Storytelling reveals meaning without committing the error of defining it."
...Hannah Arendt
...Hannah Arendt
Ok china, do your worst.
Us miners are using human hamsterwheels now.
Should have a bitcoin mined around at the last halving.
Their price should still be going hyperbollock.
Us miners are using human hamsterwheels now.
Should have a bitcoin mined around at the last halving.
Their price should still be going hyperbollock.
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