I’d hazard that if you only internalised one post this year on 440, this would be the one.Alexandra wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:22 pmThe market is crashing because the hedge funds are dumping ETF to be able to afford borrowing stocks at 9-12% interest so they can continue shorting $GME to keep its value down and save their asses from evil diamond hands.
It’s not a big surprise that crypto currencies aren’t much affected by these waves. BTC will continue to rise. There are different factors driving that push.
If you’re not already balls deep in the ongoing war or crypto then now is probably a good time to go long on boomer stock.
We live in a meme world...
Bitcoins worth more than gold
- Petrol Head
- Grand Poobah
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Haha - my money’s on Playboy
I think it’s a huge risk and my main problem with crypto coins is that it attracts the type of people who consider themselves expert traders despite having zero prior trading experience.spitthedog wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:36 pmAlex,
So you do not class Bitcoin as a risk asset anymore then, in this enviroment?
The current lack of a shake up in the HY bond market "canary in the coal mine", to me means all eyes on the stock market and government bonds on Monday.
https://schrts.co/PnkRZwvZ
No big drama in the fear gauge VIX either. VIX down.
Will be watching next week for which way it will go.
I’m obviously no expert myself.
The current spikes in Bitcoin value is triggering some interesting movement. For example this Wednesday somebody moved $5,000,000 worth of Bitcoin that hasn’t been touched for 10+ years.
High price attracts the dump, like always, but while there will be a dip I think there will be enough clueless people driving the price up further. Someone will cash in, others will buy the dip, and the price will go up until someone dumps a huge amount.
I think crypto trading is a trap. Again, I’m no expert, but when clueless people get involved it becomes unpredictable, very volatile, and in the end people get fucked. Every single time. The robots will win as humans succumb to their own greed.
I remember maybe 18 months ago someone said when your hairdresser talks about buying Bitcoin it’s time to get out.
So with that being said who’s buying now?
So with that being said who’s buying now?
pew, pew, pew, pew!
Cardano has been doing twice as good as BTC in the last 4 months. Vastly superior technology and fees a fraction of other cryptos.
It's now the 3rd largest crypto by market cap. Funds have been shifting their crypto assets from BTC to cardano for a reason.
Follow the money guys. It pays way better than teaching.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/globa ... nUUgWgi9TH
It's now the 3rd largest crypto by market cap. Funds have been shifting their crypto assets from BTC to cardano for a reason.
Follow the money guys. It pays way better than teaching.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/globa ... nUUgWgi9TH
I'm not so smitten with crypto currencies but if I was, I'd be buying up the lesser known cryptos. I do see cryptos becoming hugely popular and eventually all the differing crypto currencies will begin competing with each other. That's when it will become exciting with investors working on trends etc, like futures markets do.
My amateur opinion, obviously.
"Not my circus, not my monkeys" - KiR
I am not so sure about that. Most of the coins are literal copies of Satoshi’s work. Not that it’s a bad thing, but I think they are more likely to merge than anything else. The successful ones use the same software and those that don’t will pay hefty prices down the road (because their creators are less skilled than Satoshi and more prone to error).
Bitcoin is down from $57,000 to $43,000 in a week but our resident evangelists seem to only want to talk about value when it fits the narrative. Smart money is converting to USD while they can.
The dip is on and there will be aggressive dumping unless the hairdressers step in and save the day with their stimulus checks.
A week from now it could be worth $10,000 or $100,000 per coin. Tomorrow will be interesting. I expect a bloodbath.
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Why "tomorrow"?Tomorrow will be interesting. I expect a bloodbath.
If a bloodbath had been in the works it would have been ongoing.
Cryptocurrencies aren't traded like stock but just like other currencies. Meaning the exchanges are open 24/7, not Monday-Friday.
Because today is the first day since yesterday and I wrote my post at night. I know that the trade is not time restricted. And indeed the bloodbath is ongoing, currently -19%. I suspect that many people bough at $50k or higher and expected it to quickly rise to $100k.
Eh? Your definition of bloodbath continuing is a bit weird. The price is up today, and while it’s down 19% from it’s high, its up from its low over the weekend.
You can’t post that you expect a bloodbath tomorrow, then when tomorrow comes and the price is up, say that it’s evidence the bloodbath is continuing.
You can’t post that you expect a bloodbath tomorrow, then when tomorrow comes and the price is up, say that it’s evidence the bloodbath is continuing.
What do you call -19% on a commodity evangelists thought would increase by 100%? I think bloodbath is a good word.
-19% is a minor technical correction after a sudden surge. Especially in a very volatile instrument.
A bloodbath is what happened a year ago on most stock markets- and it's been forgotten already anyway.
A bloodbath is what happened a year ago on most stock markets- and it's been forgotten already anyway.
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- MerkinMaker
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This is simplifying things a lot, but there are only two core investment strategies with crypto.
1. Taking bets on the highs and lows of a volatile market in the belief that you can beat the algorithms.
2. Hodling Bitcoin where you are accumulating as much Bitcoin as possible and betting on the eventual price when the market cap has reached a level that creates relative price stability.
Strategy 1, is like the casino, the house always wins in the end. In a bull market it's easy to become convinced that this is possible, only to get schooled in the bear market.
Strategy 2 is much more appealing. Here you are betting that the "internet of value" will dominate the financial sector in the same way that the "internet of information" came to dominate the information sector, AND when that happens Bitcoin will be used as a store of value that's a hedge against inflationary pressures of fiat currency in the same way that gold is used in the current system (I also think eventually all fiat will be on chain also, but lets save that for another day).
Such long term bets on other crypto's are generally not sound because they are a protocol, and like all protocols will likely have a short half life due to technological advances.
However for a hedge against fiat inflation the protocol that wins is the one that has a fixed supply combined with the highest market cap. So as Bitcoin can't be beaten by technology (it already has fixed supply), it can only be beaten by market cap and unless something major changes it seems impossible that any other chain can catch it owing to the massive lead it already has (first mover advantage).
So the real question is this. If distributed ledger technology (the internet of value) does to the storage, transfer and distribution of value what the internet did to the centralised storage, transfer and distribution of information, what will the eventual price be?
I can't say with certainty, no one can. But here are three possible scenarios:
1. The internet of value doesn't materialise (there is no pie), then bitcoin is worth next to nothing.
2. The internet of value eventually reaches parity with the centralised system of today (the pie is of equal size). And bitcoins market cap matches that of Gold, then one Bitcoin could be worth around $500,000.
3. The internet of value doesn't only replace the old system but creates a wave of innovation that dwarfs what came before it (massive expansion of the pie). Then the one bitcoin could be worth millions.
Personally I think option one is unlikely, option two is inevitable, option 3 is likely. The only thing I can see preventing us reaching option two is massive state intervention on a global scale, akin to what China did to the internet. In a scenario where the whole world is behaving like China, then I think the value of our Bitcoins will be the least of our worries.
1. Taking bets on the highs and lows of a volatile market in the belief that you can beat the algorithms.
2. Hodling Bitcoin where you are accumulating as much Bitcoin as possible and betting on the eventual price when the market cap has reached a level that creates relative price stability.
Strategy 1, is like the casino, the house always wins in the end. In a bull market it's easy to become convinced that this is possible, only to get schooled in the bear market.
Strategy 2 is much more appealing. Here you are betting that the "internet of value" will dominate the financial sector in the same way that the "internet of information" came to dominate the information sector, AND when that happens Bitcoin will be used as a store of value that's a hedge against inflationary pressures of fiat currency in the same way that gold is used in the current system (I also think eventually all fiat will be on chain also, but lets save that for another day).
Such long term bets on other crypto's are generally not sound because they are a protocol, and like all protocols will likely have a short half life due to technological advances.
However for a hedge against fiat inflation the protocol that wins is the one that has a fixed supply combined with the highest market cap. So as Bitcoin can't be beaten by technology (it already has fixed supply), it can only be beaten by market cap and unless something major changes it seems impossible that any other chain can catch it owing to the massive lead it already has (first mover advantage).
So the real question is this. If distributed ledger technology (the internet of value) does to the storage, transfer and distribution of value what the internet did to the centralised storage, transfer and distribution of information, what will the eventual price be?
I can't say with certainty, no one can. But here are three possible scenarios:
1. The internet of value doesn't materialise (there is no pie), then bitcoin is worth next to nothing.
2. The internet of value eventually reaches parity with the centralised system of today (the pie is of equal size). And bitcoins market cap matches that of Gold, then one Bitcoin could be worth around $500,000.
3. The internet of value doesn't only replace the old system but creates a wave of innovation that dwarfs what came before it (massive expansion of the pie). Then the one bitcoin could be worth millions.
Personally I think option one is unlikely, option two is inevitable, option 3 is likely. The only thing I can see preventing us reaching option two is massive state intervention on a global scale, akin to what China did to the internet. In a scenario where the whole world is behaving like China, then I think the value of our Bitcoins will be the least of our worries.
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Hold on there missy.
On Sunday you anticipated what would happen the next day. You said you expected a bloodbath.
Instead the price went up, so you get all vague and suddenly start to talk about a 19 point correction from a high.
Today didn’t see a bloodbath as you expected. Quite the opposite. It saw a small recovery from a sharp decline over the last week.
Words matter.
- spitthedog
- Is the World Outside still there ?
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SPX futures up around 1%.
No dirty Bitcoins for me though.
No dirty Bitcoins for me though.
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
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