New coronavirus spreading rapidly.
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- OneTrickPony
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@ starkmonster, can you give an opinion on why every country of the world's graph on this link seems to be flattening out? Is it a database glitch or what? I randomly sampled around 20.
https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/vietnam
https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/vietnam
Up the workers!
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- MerkinMaker
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It's just bad design, they are showing today (currently the 6th) in the graphs, but most countries only release the numbers once per day for the previous day.
To consider something a weak trend, you would want to see it for three consecutive days, to consider it a strong trend I would say seven days and 14 days is pretty much gospel.
But some countries the recorded data is definitely flattening out, Cambodia and Vietnam being a cases in point.
It seems all the countries in this region (except Indonesia) are tracking at sub 5% case growth day-on-day and there is nothing in the confirmed cases to death ratio that would cast any doubt on those numbers.
Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar and Lao (unlike Thailand, Malaysia and to a lesser extent Singapore) also got lucky and didn't have any super-spreading incidents early on. With the borders effectively closed, high community awareness, low case numbers and low r0 there is no reason these countries shouldn't be able to snuff it out in the coming weeks.
This is almost certainly down to environmental factors rather than government intervention (but that's not saying they've done a bad job). But IMHO if ever there was a group of countries that were long overdue in catching a lucky break, then it's these four.
But I think it's important that we don't get collectively complacent, this is a novel virus, so it might have some tricks left up its sleeve yet such as mutations or going nuts in the rainy season.
If I was the government I would still do a 14-21 day lock down in order to flush out any undetected chains of transmission and keep the borders closed/heavily restricted until good anti-body testing is available and they can test all arrivals.
I think any countries that can completely flush it out now and avoid 12-18 months of social distancing post lock down and pre-vaccine will actually come out of this as big winners economically speaking.
To consider something a weak trend, you would want to see it for three consecutive days, to consider it a strong trend I would say seven days and 14 days is pretty much gospel.
But some countries the recorded data is definitely flattening out, Cambodia and Vietnam being a cases in point.
It seems all the countries in this region (except Indonesia) are tracking at sub 5% case growth day-on-day and there is nothing in the confirmed cases to death ratio that would cast any doubt on those numbers.
Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar and Lao (unlike Thailand, Malaysia and to a lesser extent Singapore) also got lucky and didn't have any super-spreading incidents early on. With the borders effectively closed, high community awareness, low case numbers and low r0 there is no reason these countries shouldn't be able to snuff it out in the coming weeks.
This is almost certainly down to environmental factors rather than government intervention (but that's not saying they've done a bad job). But IMHO if ever there was a group of countries that were long overdue in catching a lucky break, then it's these four.
But I think it's important that we don't get collectively complacent, this is a novel virus, so it might have some tricks left up its sleeve yet such as mutations or going nuts in the rainy season.
If I was the government I would still do a 14-21 day lock down in order to flush out any undetected chains of transmission and keep the borders closed/heavily restricted until good anti-body testing is available and they can test all arrivals.
I think any countries that can completely flush it out now and avoid 12-18 months of social distancing post lock down and pre-vaccine will actually come out of this as big winners economically speaking.
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- OneTrickPony
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Cheers.starkmonster wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:23 pmIt's just bad design, they are showing today (currently the 6th) in the graphs, but most countries only release the numbers once per day for the previous day.
To consider something a weak trend, you would want to see it for three consecutive days, to consider it a strong trend I would say seven days and 14 days is pretty much gospel.
But some countries the recorded data is definitely flattening out, Cambodia and Vietnam being a cases in point.
It seems all the countries in this region (except Indonesia) are tracking at sub 5% case growth day-on-day and there is nothing in the confirmed cases to death ratio that would cast any doubt on those numbers.
Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar and Lao (unlike Thailand, Malaysia and to a lesser extent Singapore) also got lucky and didn't have any super-spreading incidents early on. With the borders effectively closed, high community awareness, low case numbers and low r0 there is no reason these countries shouldn't be able to snuff it out in the coming weeks.
This is almost certainly down to environmental factors rather than government intervention (but that's not saying they've done a bad job). But IMHO if ever there was a group of countries that were long overdue in catching a lucky break, then it's these four.
But I think it's important that we don't get collectively complacent, this is a novel virus, so it might have some tricks left up its sleeve yet such as mutations or going nuts in the rainy season.
If I was the government I would still do a 14-21 day lock down in order to flush out any undetected chains of transmission and keep the borders closed/heavily restricted until good anti-body testing is available and they can test all arrivals.
I think any countries that can completely flush it out now and avoid 12-18 months of social distancing post lock down and pre-vaccine will actually come out of this as big winners economically speaking.
I think the Vietnamese seem to be doing a good job. Not sure how much to believe them as they can be a bit Chinesey when it comes to control. It's hard to believe stats in this part of the world.
There was an outbreak last week at a popular and large Expat bar in D.2 HCM. A British pilot had infected 17 people. They had to test over 500 people and a lot of the expats were causing problems much to the authority's distain. There was also a random traffic accident which included a tourist who tested positive after wandering around for three weeks. It must be a nightmare trying to trace the contacts. No wonder they want everyone to register via an app so they can track everywhere they've been. Still hard to believe they can trace everyone though.
A race against the clock at Buddha Bar, Saigon’s COVID-19 epicenter
Hundreds of workers from specialized forces in Ho Chi Minh City have been involved in a race against the clock to keep the situation in check at District 2’s Buddha Bar, which has been identified as the source of multiple COVID-19 infections in the southern metropolis.
Situated in Thao Dien Ward in District 2 – a neighborhood populated with high-end villas and a vibrant community of foreigners in Ho Chi Minh City – once hyper-popular Buddha Bar these days see most passers-by being medical staff, police and military personnel.
As the nation enjoyed a public holiday on Thursday, Dr. Truong Thanh Trung, head of District 2 Health Division, were busy overseeing works to disinfect a local apartment complex and sample more than 500 of its residents for testing, after a resident had tested positive for the novel coronavirus after visiting Buddha Bar.
“Chances are we would not be able to wrap up until midnight,” Trung told Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper.
On March 14, a Saint Patrick’s Day party was organized at the bar located at No. 7 Thao Dien Street in District 2.
The party has been highlighted as the source of at least 17 infected cases in Ho Chi Minh City, becoming the biggest cluster of infections in southern Vietnam to date.
City officials have referred to the situation as “serial transmission” and mobilized the intervention of medical and public security forces from as early as March 19.
The race to control the outbreak
The first detected case related to Buddha Bar, patient No. 91, was revealed to be a British pilot residing in a high-end apartment in District 2.
The gravity of the situation quickly became clear as 16 other cases had been traced back to the party ten days after the initial revelation, all of whom had directly or indirectly interacted with patient No. 91.
Dr. Tran Van Khanh from District 2 Hospital described Buddha Bar as a critical situation that poses a threat of mass community spread if not handled with conviction.
“All concerns pointed toward patient No. 91 since this person is a pilot who visited many catering and entertainment establishments during the incubation period,” another doctor working on the frontline of the city’s battle against the Buddha Bar outbreak elaborated.
In response to drastic developments of the case, specialized units alongside the Ho Chi Minh City Center for Disease Control (CDC) promptly locked down the bar as well as the residential areas of partygoers for disinfecting and tracking of high-risk individuals.
“All guests, managers and staff members as well as security guards [of Buddha Bar] were diligently tested twice to make sure no person carrying the virus could pose any risk to the community,” Khanh affirmed.
An unconventional obstacle
According to Khanh, the Buddha Bar case is peculiar also because of its demographics. The majority of the bar’s patrons are foreigners residing in high-end apartment complexes in District 2 and neighboring suburban areas of Ho Chi Minh city.
Many of them have not been cooperative, refusing to talk to medical workers who came to their apartments asking for declaration of health.
“For some of them, warnings of harsher measures were needed to get them to comply [with the health declaration request],” Khanh said.
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/202 ... 53854.html
Up the workers!
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- OneTrickPony
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That British pilot is critically ill in hospital. It looks like he may be about to be the first death of covid in Vietnam.
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/202 ... 53893.html
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/202 ... 53893.html
Up the workers!
- springrain
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Oh dear, Boris is now in intensive care. I wish I hadn’t made a somewhat callous post when it was first announced that he had the virus.
Heck, one is so used to all the publicity stunts he has pulled over the years, I really didn’t take the initial announcement that seriously.
Now it is that serious, I wish him all the best for a speedy recovery.
Come on, Bossa!
Get well soon!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... o-hospital
Heck, one is so used to all the publicity stunts he has pulled over the years, I really didn’t take the initial announcement that seriously.
Now it is that serious, I wish him all the best for a speedy recovery.
Come on, Bossa!
Get well soon!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... o-hospital
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'History is a set of lies agreed upon.'
Attributed to Napoleon
Attributed to Napoleon
- horace
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^^ I read somewhere last week that in Italy something like 90% of covid patients who went into ICU died! Not looking good for him at the moment. Boris is 55 and Prince Charles is 70?, so you would have thought Charles would have been the one to get it worse! I really do think a lot of it is to do with how much initial virus dosage you get and how old it is.
k440, something to do when you're pissed.
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- OneTrickPony
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Poetic justice I'd say after manipulating, lying, and conning the UK over Brexit and the election. Plus his policies have caused the deaths of thousands already.
In other news the Vietnamese have been running articles about foreigners helping out in this time of crisis.
Foreigners join hands to fight COVID-19 in Vietnam
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/202 ... 53840.html
Rafael Masters, a British national who has been living in Vietnam for nearly 11 years, is a co-founder of Vulcan Augmetics, a start-up that produces affordable prosthetics so that amputees in developing countries can participate in the workforce.
Now, as the COVID-19 pandemic devastates countries around the world, Masters is using Vulcan Augmetics as a platform to connect 3D creators and designers with healthcare professionals in Vietnam in order to collaborate on the production of much-needed medical equipment for local hospitals
....
Before the government requested that all residents refrain from leaving their houses, Nigerian YouTuber Nnadozie Uzor Nadis could be found on the streets of Ho Chi Minh City offering free facemasks to unprotected passersby.
“I told my friends to let me know if they knew anyone who needed facemasks. I didn’t care about the price,” Nadis said.
“Helping others and making them feel safe is just the right thing to do.”
In other news the Vietnamese have been running articles about foreigners helping out in this time of crisis.
Foreigners join hands to fight COVID-19 in Vietnam
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/202 ... 53840.html
Rafael Masters, a British national who has been living in Vietnam for nearly 11 years, is a co-founder of Vulcan Augmetics, a start-up that produces affordable prosthetics so that amputees in developing countries can participate in the workforce.
Now, as the COVID-19 pandemic devastates countries around the world, Masters is using Vulcan Augmetics as a platform to connect 3D creators and designers with healthcare professionals in Vietnam in order to collaborate on the production of much-needed medical equipment for local hospitals
....
Before the government requested that all residents refrain from leaving their houses, Nigerian YouTuber Nnadozie Uzor Nadis could be found on the streets of Ho Chi Minh City offering free facemasks to unprotected passersby.
“I told my friends to let me know if they knew anyone who needed facemasks. I didn’t care about the price,” Nadis said.
“Helping others and making them feel safe is just the right thing to do.”
Last edited by kungfufighter on Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
Up the workers!
Viral load. This is why so many front liners, bless 'em, are getting hammered too; heavy multiple exposure. Also something to do with some people having/not having certain receptors.horace wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:42 am^^ I read somewhere last week that in Italy something like 90% of covid patients who went into ICU died! Not looking good for him at the moment. Boris is 55 and Prince Charles is 70?, so you would have thought Charles would have been the one to get it worse! I really do think a lot of it is to do with how much initial virus dosage you get and how old it is.
"Not my circus, not my monkeys" - KiR
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- OneTrickPony
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Compare the death rates. Only Italy has a higher rate at 12.5% because they were the first in Europe to get hit hard by it.
The UK had months to prepare.
The UK had months to prepare.
Up the workers!
- Miguelito
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I'm not a statistician in this life, but isn't the talk such as "it has a 3% death rate" or "it has a 10% death rate" rather misleading, as this percentage is being calculated by dividing the deaths against total cases, whereas it should be dividing the deaths by the total outcomes (deaths + recovered)?
What am I missing?
What am I missing?
- horace
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^^ Your right but missing all the deaths that occur at home and in nursing homes and hospices. Many countries are only counting the deaths in hospitals. Also the percentage doesn't include those who haven't been tested as they haven't/ didn't go to hospital or see a doctor.
Also that low death percentage was , I believe , taken from the Chinese stats which I think most people would agree are very suspicious.
Also that low death percentage was , I believe , taken from the Chinese stats which I think most people would agree are very suspicious.
k440, something to do when you're pissed.
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- OneTrickPony
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I think it's actually Impossible to work out the true CFR ATM. I'm sure you're probably right though.Miguelito wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:53 pmI'm not a statistician in this life, but isn't the talk such as "it has a 3% death rate" or "it has a 10% death rate" rather misleading, as this percentage is being calculated by dividing the deaths against total cases, whereas it should be dividing the deaths by the total outcomes (deaths + recovered)?
What am I missing?
My comparisons above are using the same site's analysis - linear I think, so just comparing like for like. Although, as I mentioned, the whole exponential growth thing in Europe happened in Italy ( and Spain) first, I think. So, taking it from Feb or begining of March. Germany was right on the case from the start. Why didn't the UK follow their example? They're usual good at logistics.
Anyhow, the visa agents in Vietnam are trying it on - some trying to charge 150$ plus more for a 3 month business extension. 300$ for 3 months.
Same old same old.
Many see the epidemic quite rightly as a crisis. Others view it as an opportunity.
Not sure who I should be clapping for?
Up the workers!
- springrain
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Yes, that's right. The respective figures for the above list - that is the % of deaths/outcome read:
Germany: 5.16%
USA: 35.59%
Spain: 24.8%
UK: 97.5%
Italy: 41.98%
As pointed out in the above few posts, there are numerous factors and 'explanations' for this great variation.
'History is a set of lies agreed upon.'
Attributed to Napoleon
Attributed to Napoleon
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- MerkinMaker
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Seriously? It really is like the last days of Rome, this kind of thinking worries me that western civilisation is truly finished. The Chinese rallied behind their leaders and institutions at a time of existential crisis, while a significant proportion of our population are still finger pointing, sharpening daggers and looking for political points.kungfufighter wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:13 amPoetic justice I'd say after manipulating, lying, and conning the UK over Brexit and the election. Plus his policies have caused the deaths of thousands already.
Time will tell whether the policies of Boris and the British government made the correct choices with the information and the resources they had at hand, hindsight being a fine thing.
But what I do know is that like other great leaders from our long and proud history, he stood by the call he made, stood by his principles and stood on the front line with everyone else, when he could have quite easily sat at the rear issuing commands to the rest of us in complete safety.
For me that is heroic behaviour, and regardless of whether I'm a political fan or not, for that he will always have my respect.
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