Perhaps the next poster knows how to run a poll on K440 and can set it up?
Poll: What Month will Omicron in China be MOSTLY Over?
a) April 2022
b) June 2022
c) August 2022
d) Sometime in late 2022 or early 2023
The actual answer may be the key to how fast the world normalizes.
I guess I'd vote August, because they will fight it tooth and nail, their pride at success to date preventing them from facing the inevitable until mid-late Spring. I'd expect major shutdowns, outbreak by outbreak, in a futile attempt to win against Omicron, even more infectious than measles.
Two thoughts:
1. However, Cambodia could become their model: suddenly accept it - along with figure fudging - and quickly decide to open everything up. (Seems best to me. Gut feeling only, not science based, because data saying 'intrinsically less severe' is still too thin for China, a massive population, not so young, with a not top notch vax and a claimed extremely low number of earlier natural infections.)
2. Once Omicron cases in China are going nuts, will Delta quietly squirm in too, and due to population size, start piling up the deaths?
Global endemic seems destiny, but watching the billion person Chinese game of 'Reversi/Othello" should be an interesting spectacle. (Apologies for disrespect in advance to the inevitable dead.)
Poll: What Month will Omicron in China be mostly Over?
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You didn't have to be that precise 2043 was good enough for me.
It was generally accepted that China would stay Covid-Zero focused for the Olympics and Spring festivals in Feb., and the big Party meeting in the Fall. Because of these, Chinese tourists riding to SEA's economic salvation in 2022 was highly unlikely. However, Omicron will make Covid-Zero a MUCH bigger challenge. Only time will tell they can pull it off for a year (or longer).
A relatively slow Chinese economy through the year is both bad and good. Not to minimize all the bad, but for Cambodia and Vietnam, it might accelerate the movement of factories, Chinese owned and otherwise, out of China to SEA, and many aren't moving to Myanmar. Chinese tourists won't be gambling in person in Sihanoukville, but rich Chinese will still want to get/keep cash in dollars, so property investments and money laundering might not drop off too much.
Now that I've looked, Chna vs Omicron has been in the press for a while already, it isn't the return of Megatron, but it seemed interesting. A battle of the heavyweights.
Anyway, I think 2022 should be a pretty good year.
A relatively slow Chinese economy through the year is both bad and good. Not to minimize all the bad, but for Cambodia and Vietnam, it might accelerate the movement of factories, Chinese owned and otherwise, out of China to SEA, and many aren't moving to Myanmar. Chinese tourists won't be gambling in person in Sihanoukville, but rich Chinese will still want to get/keep cash in dollars, so property investments and money laundering might not drop off too much.
Now that I've looked, Chna vs Omicron has been in the press for a while already, it isn't the return of Megatron, but it seemed interesting. A battle of the heavyweights.
Anyway, I think 2022 should be a pretty good year.
March 1st to April 22, a whopping 48 Covid deaths in China (I guess that stat implies Hong Kong is not part of China?), so naturally they now have around 344 million people under lockdown, mostly around Shanghai, the largest city, but Beijing too is tightening up fast. The resultant economic pain seems far from over, and shock waves are already being felt far from the mainland.
Poll option d) now seems likely.
A rare few Chinese analysts have publicly wondered if there might be some long term effects beyond a troubled 2022. They worry confidence in the government might be sufficiently shaken that capitalism in China, such as existed the last few decades, might take a long time to recover. As the Government more firmly grips the tiller of the economy to steer it through lockdowns, small and medium sized Chinese businesses may, they say, have even greater desire to get their investment money out of the country.
IF they can get it out, the dollarized Cambodian economy may continue to receive an outsized share. Not sure about Chinese cash inflows to Cambodia right now - though it is hard to believe it could even approach that of 2014-2019, but 2022, (or earlier in the Pandemic) might be a fine year to get a nice piece of land to sell to Chinese in 2025.
Yes, that was exactly what everyone, and their dogs and cats, was thinking 2014-2019, and not everyone bought sufficiently low, but with war in Ukraine, and ongoing Covid Zero up north, perhaps now IS time for, at least, a good look around.
(I'd look for 'reasonably priced', well located land rather than condos, but that's just me.)
Poll option d) now seems likely.
A rare few Chinese analysts have publicly wondered if there might be some long term effects beyond a troubled 2022. They worry confidence in the government might be sufficiently shaken that capitalism in China, such as existed the last few decades, might take a long time to recover. As the Government more firmly grips the tiller of the economy to steer it through lockdowns, small and medium sized Chinese businesses may, they say, have even greater desire to get their investment money out of the country.
IF they can get it out, the dollarized Cambodian economy may continue to receive an outsized share. Not sure about Chinese cash inflows to Cambodia right now - though it is hard to believe it could even approach that of 2014-2019, but 2022, (or earlier in the Pandemic) might be a fine year to get a nice piece of land to sell to Chinese in 2025.
Yes, that was exactly what everyone, and their dogs and cats, was thinking 2014-2019, and not everyone bought sufficiently low, but with war in Ukraine, and ongoing Covid Zero up north, perhaps now IS time for, at least, a good look around.
(I'd look for 'reasonably priced', well located land rather than condos, but that's just me.)
Theres a new b2.1202.2-02002 strain 25% more transmissible than omicron.
It will be over in the 12th of never.
It will be over in the 12th of never.
My OP was stupidly unclear, sorry.
I did not mean to ask when China would conquer Covid, but rather when they, like the rest of the world, would stop trying to do so. Thinking their attempt to continue Covid Zero against an extremely transmissible adversary would have a major impact on all the economies in SEA, especially those dependant on Chinese tourism. Who was to know an Eastern European invasion would impact world economies as much as China's reaction to Omicron. Not me.
Newer, more transmissible variants, particularly if less lethal to the vaccinated, makes successfully holding to Covid Zero ever more improbable.
I did not mean to ask when China would conquer Covid, but rather when they, like the rest of the world, would stop trying to do so. Thinking their attempt to continue Covid Zero against an extremely transmissible adversary would have a major impact on all the economies in SEA, especially those dependant on Chinese tourism. Who was to know an Eastern European invasion would impact world economies as much as China's reaction to Omicron. Not me.
Newer, more transmissible variants, particularly if less lethal to the vaccinated, makes successfully holding to Covid Zero ever more improbable.
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