Actual Covid numbers
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Actual Covid numbers
Cambodia has just over 100 documented cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
All countries are unable to capture the fully tally. In the US there may be 4 to 20 times the reported number. You guys think Cambodia follows those numbers or could it be way higher?
All countries are unable to capture the fully tally. In the US there may be 4 to 20 times the reported number. You guys think Cambodia follows those numbers or could it be way higher?
Cambodia’s figures are grossly underreported. Chinese are now regularly being discovered with Coronavirus when their flight lands in China from Cambodia. They get it in Cambodia and it’s spreading around by them and the person that gave it to them.
I am of the opinion that USA is underreported due to lack of tests, unsure if the lack of tests is the only reason for Cambodia to underreport.
I am of the opinion that USA is underreported due to lack of tests, unsure if the lack of tests is the only reason for Cambodia to underreport.
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I don't understand.
Logically Cambodia should be riddled with it.
But I don't know a single person foreign or local who is or has been ill with covid type illness. I've seen a few funerals in the past week, tempted to stop and ask them how did they die!
Logically Cambodia should be riddled with it.
But I don't know a single person foreign or local who is or has been ill with covid type illness. I've seen a few funerals in the past week, tempted to stop and ask them how did they die!
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Maybe this link could become a sticky, gives latest graph info for Cambodia. Scroll down to select any other country. Updated 01.00 GMT daily.
https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/cambodia
https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/cambodia
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- MerkinMaker
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Tracking the confirmed cases in any country is not going to give you an accurate picture, nor is it very useful even if it did. The number to track is the day on day percentage increase as infectious disease outbreaks are all about the R0, which is the average number of people each individual carrier passes the virus on to.
If we work from the basis that all countries have a specific criteria for testing, be that small scale or comprehensive, in theory the percentage increase will give an indication of the current R0 in the country (speed of spread, NOT total cases). Or at least on indication of what was happening five days ago, as that's the median time to the onset of symptoms.
All of the countries with large scale outbreaks (Wuhan, South Korea, Iran, Italy, Europe, US) started out with roughly a 35% day on day increase when no containment measures were in place.
With an R0 of 35% 100 seed cases (bought in from outside) will turn into 50,000 cases in 21 days.
Then when basic social distancing measures had taken hold, the daily increase dropped in most cases to 22%.
With an R0 of 22% every 100 cases will turn into 6500 new cases within 21 days.
Then when full lock down is in place the daily increase drops to around 14%, as most spread continues within households rather than the community.
With an R0 of 14% every 100 cases will turn into about 1600 cases in 21 days.
Once the household spread has played out, at this point you have "flattened the curve" and the aim to keep percentage daily increase below 10%, which is manageable for most countries health systems.
To be able to compare countries you need to use logarithmic graphing techniques that allow you to compare countries with hugely different populations and different start dates in terms of community spread.
This site does a very good job of presenting the data in logarithmic graphs:
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#ww
Now back to Cambodia.....
A common working theory was that the lack of cases in this region was the result non-detection of cases, but the more time that passes the less likely that scenario is.
You see, take Cambodia (same applies for Thailand, Vietnam, Lao etc), which currently has no lock down and only basic social distancing measures in place. If we present the theory the virus is equally prevalent here as Europe, but is simply not being detected, then what we would expect is 21-28 days later hospitals full of inpatients and morgues full of bodies.
Cambodia has a similar population to the Netherlands, where there are currently 5000 people hospitalised and over 1000 deaths. You could compare Thailand or Vietnam to say Germany or the UK.
Not only should the deaths here be equal, they should be greater as the countries here should have continued on the 35% day on day growth trajectory, while the European countries stepped down to the 22% and 14% growth rates following large scale interventions.
What's actually happening is that all of the countries in this region are tracking at sub 10% growth rates without lock downs.
I'm not going to pretend I know the exact reason for this, but I think when all is said and done it will be down to a combination of environmental factors rather than state intervention (popular theories: UV, heat, humidity, ventilated homes, young population, lower average BMI).
What I am sure of though is that this doesn't make this country safe or immune, a super spreading incident like the religious event in Malaysia could easily allow things to get out of control. It also doesn't mean the the total percentage of the population that eventually becomes infected will be any lower, it might just mean it takes much, much longer to play out.
If we work from the basis that all countries have a specific criteria for testing, be that small scale or comprehensive, in theory the percentage increase will give an indication of the current R0 in the country (speed of spread, NOT total cases). Or at least on indication of what was happening five days ago, as that's the median time to the onset of symptoms.
All of the countries with large scale outbreaks (Wuhan, South Korea, Iran, Italy, Europe, US) started out with roughly a 35% day on day increase when no containment measures were in place.
With an R0 of 35% 100 seed cases (bought in from outside) will turn into 50,000 cases in 21 days.
Then when basic social distancing measures had taken hold, the daily increase dropped in most cases to 22%.
With an R0 of 22% every 100 cases will turn into 6500 new cases within 21 days.
Then when full lock down is in place the daily increase drops to around 14%, as most spread continues within households rather than the community.
With an R0 of 14% every 100 cases will turn into about 1600 cases in 21 days.
Once the household spread has played out, at this point you have "flattened the curve" and the aim to keep percentage daily increase below 10%, which is manageable for most countries health systems.
To be able to compare countries you need to use logarithmic graphing techniques that allow you to compare countries with hugely different populations and different start dates in terms of community spread.
This site does a very good job of presenting the data in logarithmic graphs:
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#ww
Now back to Cambodia.....
A common working theory was that the lack of cases in this region was the result non-detection of cases, but the more time that passes the less likely that scenario is.
You see, take Cambodia (same applies for Thailand, Vietnam, Lao etc), which currently has no lock down and only basic social distancing measures in place. If we present the theory the virus is equally prevalent here as Europe, but is simply not being detected, then what we would expect is 21-28 days later hospitals full of inpatients and morgues full of bodies.
Cambodia has a similar population to the Netherlands, where there are currently 5000 people hospitalised and over 1000 deaths. You could compare Thailand or Vietnam to say Germany or the UK.
Not only should the deaths here be equal, they should be greater as the countries here should have continued on the 35% day on day growth trajectory, while the European countries stepped down to the 22% and 14% growth rates following large scale interventions.
What's actually happening is that all of the countries in this region are tracking at sub 10% growth rates without lock downs.
I'm not going to pretend I know the exact reason for this, but I think when all is said and done it will be down to a combination of environmental factors rather than state intervention (popular theories: UV, heat, humidity, ventilated homes, young population, lower average BMI).
What I am sure of though is that this doesn't make this country safe or immune, a super spreading incident like the religious event in Malaysia could easily allow things to get out of control. It also doesn't mean the the total percentage of the population that eventually becomes infected will be any lower, it might just mean it takes much, much longer to play out.
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The health ministry said yesterday that they've tested around 5,700 people so far. With over a hundred people infected. That's an extremely low test count. I don't think there is any question there are far more cases in Cambodia than have been reported or tested yet. Sure the hot weather may help, I guess we'll see. I go from one minute thinking that this place is going to explode with cases and it will be a nightmare and then the next minute thinking maybe we will get lucky somehow. I really don't know...
- horace
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I have four friends in London who have/ had the symptoms, albeit mild , just coughs n fever and none of em have been tested. In fact , two were told by the help line not to bother going any further in seeking help unless they started having trouble breathing.
In Spain the hardest hit have been the nursing homes and the medical staff at hospitals. In France the numbers only include those tested at hospitals and not nursing homes.
Number of cases in Europe easily times 4, number of jobless, fuck that is going through the roof.
In Spain the hardest hit have been the nursing homes and the medical staff at hospitals. In France the numbers only include those tested at hospitals and not nursing homes.
Number of cases in Europe easily times 4, number of jobless, fuck that is going through the roof.
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- spitthedog
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Horace,horace wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:36 pmI have four friends in London who have/ had the symptoms, albeit mild , just coughs n fever and none of em have been tested. In fact , two were told by the help line not to bother going any further in seeking help unless they started having trouble breathing.
In Spain the hardest hit have been the nursing homes and the medical staff at hospitals. In France the numbers only include those tested at hospitals and not nursing homes.
Number of cases in Europe easily times 4, number of jobless, fuck that is going through the roof.
I had symptoms of Covid19 yesterday, but then i remembered the amount of Corley's gin i drank Thursday night, and so just got on with the job. As you do.
It's just what us Brits do.
Right?
Right??
I went out to a factory the other week, where 120 people had been infected. Place was like Big Brother. Might have been the safest place going after all the testing for all i know.
Place was also full of Eastern Europeans etc. You could imagine them being somewhat crammed into accomodation.
Can't be a sensitive snowflake in the construction
sector right now.
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
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