Ukraine
The Russians have the capability of taking over all of the Ukraine in a couple of weeks but it would come at a heavy cost. They don't have an interest in doing this because they would have to spend years, if not decades, fighting a bloody war with an insurgency. The Ukrainian economy is in the gutter and the infrastructure is crumbling so taking over the Ukraine is a losing proposition for the Russians. They will only do so if the west forces their hand.
If I was Putin I would formally reunify Russia with the Donbass region. The popularity he would gain from this move would make up for any economic problems that would result from a new round of sanctions. It is also the moral thing to do because the people living in the Donbass are overwhelmingly Russian and have been neglected by Kiev for decades. They deserve better.
If I was Putin I would formally reunify Russia with the Donbass region. The popularity he would gain from this move would make up for any economic problems that would result from a new round of sanctions. It is also the moral thing to do because the people living in the Donbass are overwhelmingly Russian and have been neglected by Kiev for decades. They deserve better.
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- Prahok
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If the incursions into South Ossetia, Donbass & Crimea are any indication then the Ukrainians are on their own when it comes to boots on the ground.Fred Edwards wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:26 amIf it happens and it's European war who is going to join up?
The Law of Unintended Consequences however positively thrives in environments such as these.
From Russia state tv they are saying that the west is getting ready to invade Belarus. LoL i don't think either side would benefit from a war.
Russia just can't afford it, their total GDP is lower than that of Italy even if they are much larger and full of natural resources.
Any protracted war larger than a minor skirmish would like bring Russia economy back to 20 years ago with a substantial rise in poverty and either massive spending cuts or hyperinflation.
Wars are extremely expensive.
So we know that an attempt to annex all of Ukraine is out of the question as Ukraine right now has around 200.000 soldiers with the majority of them having some fighting experience in the last few years. It would not be a walk in the park. I think the population is also quite willing to fight so mass surrender and defections are unlikely.
The most that Russia could aim for militarily is to connect the Donetsk republic to Crimea as that area is ethnically majority Russian.
However my personal opinion is that the ultimate objective from Putin is just to push for some concessions, likely the independence of the Luansk and Donetsk republics and some recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
This is probably the best time to do it, by threatening an invasion while the US has a president that has already been quite humiliated by fleeing afghan and appears very unwilling to do anything besides sanctions also while the Germans are upset with the USA over the Russian gas pipeline.
Biden is quite likely to give in and accept some limited compromise rather than call the bluff and risk a conflict.
Most likely if Biden gives in the two puppet republics will get an higher degree of autonomy and Ukraine will not be allowed to join Nato. The recognition of Crimea as Russian is very unlikely.
If Biden accepts those terms than the Ukrainians will get alienated towards the USA and this will push Ukraine towards Russia.
If the US calls the bluff in full and sends substantial military aid and without chickening out halfway than most likely Russia will not do anything and just claim that they successfully protected Belarus from a Nato operation.
The only instance that could lead to an invasion is if the EU and USA give a very clear signal that they will not interve and not supplying modern anti air equipment.
In that case a very limited and rapid operation to take the corridor between Donetsk and Crimea could work without many losses on the Russian side.
Russia just can't afford it, their total GDP is lower than that of Italy even if they are much larger and full of natural resources.
Any protracted war larger than a minor skirmish would like bring Russia economy back to 20 years ago with a substantial rise in poverty and either massive spending cuts or hyperinflation.
Wars are extremely expensive.
So we know that an attempt to annex all of Ukraine is out of the question as Ukraine right now has around 200.000 soldiers with the majority of them having some fighting experience in the last few years. It would not be a walk in the park. I think the population is also quite willing to fight so mass surrender and defections are unlikely.
The most that Russia could aim for militarily is to connect the Donetsk republic to Crimea as that area is ethnically majority Russian.
However my personal opinion is that the ultimate objective from Putin is just to push for some concessions, likely the independence of the Luansk and Donetsk republics and some recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
This is probably the best time to do it, by threatening an invasion while the US has a president that has already been quite humiliated by fleeing afghan and appears very unwilling to do anything besides sanctions also while the Germans are upset with the USA over the Russian gas pipeline.
Biden is quite likely to give in and accept some limited compromise rather than call the bluff and risk a conflict.
Most likely if Biden gives in the two puppet republics will get an higher degree of autonomy and Ukraine will not be allowed to join Nato. The recognition of Crimea as Russian is very unlikely.
If Biden accepts those terms than the Ukrainians will get alienated towards the USA and this will push Ukraine towards Russia.
If the US calls the bluff in full and sends substantial military aid and without chickening out halfway than most likely Russia will not do anything and just claim that they successfully protected Belarus from a Nato operation.
The only instance that could lead to an invasion is if the EU and USA give a very clear signal that they will not interve and not supplying modern anti air equipment.
In that case a very limited and rapid operation to take the corridor between Donetsk and Crimea could work without many losses on the Russian side.
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- Prahok
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Russia now has China firmly onside, though that is hardly surprising. That Xi met Putin face to face despite not seeing any other World leader in person for the past 2 years underlines how important he thinks it is.
What is interesting is the amount of damage being done to the Ukrainian economy through capital flight as international investors get jittery. Zelensky is in something of a bind as he doesn't want the economy to tank but also wants to keep the munitions flowing into the armouries.
It won't be cheap for the Russians maintaining such a large force in the field like this. They'll need to either stand-down or be used sooner rather than later.
What is interesting is the amount of damage being done to the Ukrainian economy through capital flight as international investors get jittery. Zelensky is in something of a bind as he doesn't want the economy to tank but also wants to keep the munitions flowing into the armouries.
It won't be cheap for the Russians maintaining such a large force in the field like this. They'll need to either stand-down or be used sooner rather than later.
I like the joint statement issued by China and Russia:
http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
Putin also wrote an op-ed for Xinhua News:
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0203 ... 44901.html
There is real promise of an alliance between the Russians and Chinese. Relations between the two countries have never been closer.
http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
Putin also wrote an op-ed for Xinhua News:
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0203 ... 44901.html
There is real promise of an alliance between the Russians and Chinese. Relations between the two countries have never been closer.
- raendi
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Pledge Times: https://pledgetimes.com/comment-vladimi ... the-visit/Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing – a new world record for boot licking was set during the visit
Someone should assassinate Putler before the idiot starts war in Europe
Pardon my engrish, thanks you.
We obviously have a different reading of history. In my opinion the Russians and the Chinese are underdogs who were conquered by the Golden Horde and later on came under repeated attack from the western imperialist powers. Both countries have been struggling for their sovereignty for centuries.
I also think both countries make for far more reliable allies than any of the western imperialist powers. Mao fought a bitter war that almost turned nuclear with the Americans to liberate the Korean peninsula. Although he didn't succeed, the Chinese have continued to provide support to their ally.
The Chinese have also provided training and weapons to Pakistan and they have helped build the economy and infrastructure of Pakistan.
The Russians almost always came to the aid of their allies knowing full well that they will lose more than they will gain They fought Germany during WWI to fulfill their pledges to their allies Serbia and France. This legacy for loyalty continued throughout the Soviet era and the main reason the Soviet Union arguably collapsed is because it was insolvent because so much of their money was spent on foreign aid and subsidies to the non-Russian regions of the country.
I am excited about the prospects of an alliance because both countries are powerful and serious and can actually push back against the racist west. It is also funny because westerners are shocked when the technological and military capabilities of "snow naggers" and "chinks" surpass their own.
In the 19th century the Russians conquered a lot of Chinese territory and they are still holding onto much of it. The Chinese can't really do anything about it. This was an issue during the rule of Mao because he was a zealous man whose patriotism sometimes prevented him from seeing the bigger picture but the two countries have so far put the past behind them. An alliance will be good for the peoples of both countries and ultimately for the rest of the world.
I also think both countries make for far more reliable allies than any of the western imperialist powers. Mao fought a bitter war that almost turned nuclear with the Americans to liberate the Korean peninsula. Although he didn't succeed, the Chinese have continued to provide support to their ally.
The Chinese have also provided training and weapons to Pakistan and they have helped build the economy and infrastructure of Pakistan.
The Russians almost always came to the aid of their allies knowing full well that they will lose more than they will gain They fought Germany during WWI to fulfill their pledges to their allies Serbia and France. This legacy for loyalty continued throughout the Soviet era and the main reason the Soviet Union arguably collapsed is because it was insolvent because so much of their money was spent on foreign aid and subsidies to the non-Russian regions of the country.
I am excited about the prospects of an alliance because both countries are powerful and serious and can actually push back against the racist west. It is also funny because westerners are shocked when the technological and military capabilities of "snow naggers" and "chinks" surpass their own.
In the 19th century the Russians conquered a lot of Chinese territory and they are still holding onto much of it. The Chinese can't really do anything about it. This was an issue during the rule of Mao because he was a zealous man whose patriotism sometimes prevented him from seeing the bigger picture but the two countries have so far put the past behind them. An alliance will be good for the peoples of both countries and ultimately for the rest of the world.
The only example of Russia treating a nominal ally like a vassal state that I can think of is their late 18th century alliance with Georgia. This happened under the reign of Katherine tbe Great. She was a Teuton who hated her Slavic subjects.
Before you read these, GUESS which nation has started more wars than any other nation in history?
If you're seriously worried about anybody starting a war anywhere, maybe you should consider track records? Just an idea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_w ... ing_Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_w ... ted_States
Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development
http://thesaker.is/joint-statement-of-t ... velopment/
This is a historic statement and a milestone for democracy, human rights, sustainability, economic development, and the construction of a rules based international order.
http://thesaker.is/joint-statement-of-t ... velopment/
This is a historic statement and a milestone for democracy, human rights, sustainability, economic development, and the construction of a rules based international order.
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