Ukraine

[Prahok]

Today, another ‘major success’ was reported from this area, but more about this when the time comes.

I assume he is referring to Urozhaine, which is adjacent (across a small river), but on lower ground.

[Prahok]

End of Month 18 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the grind continues along the front, with massed landmines playing a key role in the Russian defensive strategy.

In Russia, Ukraine launched several drone strikes throughout the month, with a deep strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast destroying a Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber. A private jet reportedly with Prigozhin & Utkin (#2 in Wagner) listed as passengers crashed in the Tver region, killing all on board; speculation regarding the cause of the crash is rife.

In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. There were reports of clashes in Sumy and Chernihiv, though these were most likely engagements with small Russian sabotage elements. Bombing continued throughout the month. An Russian Mi-8 helicopter with spare parts for Russian fighter aircraft flew to Poltava (Ukraine) in what the Ukrainians are claiming a defection and the Russians navigational error.

In Belarus, there were reports that Lukashenko is unwilling to fund Wagner and the PMC is reducing its troop numbers as a result. An incursion into Poland by two Belarus helicopters followed by a large Belarusian exercise near the Sawalki Gap prompted Poland to move an additional 10,000 troops to its Eastern border.

In Luhansk, Ukraine brought additional forces to the region and pushed back most of the Russian bridgehead that had formed across the Zherevets River. Russian made some advances North East of Kupyansk.

In Donetsk, Klischiivka remains contested despite Ukrainian forces having an enduring presence in the town, primarily relying upon fire support from the dominant heights to the West. Ukraine gained territory North of Kurdyamivka, however the town remains under Russian control. Ukraine pushed Russia out of Staromayorske and Urozhayne, and is reportedly assaulting pre-prepared defence lines to the South and East of the area.

In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine reportedly pushed the Russians out of Robotyne and also pushed past the town to the East. There are suggestions this is currently the hottest part of the front, with significant forces committed by both sides. Ukraine’s 82nd Mechanised joined combat operations in the area (reportedly they were in reserve in Luhansk), which suggests the Ukrainians are making a push. Russia is moving combat capable troops from Kherson to the area.

In Kherson, Ukraine launched small attacks across the Dnieper, possibly taking advantage of Russia transferring experienced troops to Zaporizhzhia, reportedly taking territory to the West of Kozachi Laheri and capturing several POWs. A Russian relief convoy was subsequently ambushed South of Nova Kakhova, meaning Ukrainian elements are operating deep behind front lines in the area. Russian media suggested the Ukrainians were pushed off the left bank of the Dnieper, however other Russian sources suggest a continued presence further West. The Ukrainians are silent on the matter.

In Crimea, attacks against logistics continued with bridges linking Crimea to Kherson Oblast hit. Later in the month a valuable Russian S-400 air defence facility was destroyed,

In the Black Sea, Ukraine, using naval drones, managed to strike the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyk and a Russian oil carrier transporting oil to Crimea. Both ships were heavily damaged but able to be towed back to port.

[Prahok]

The long-range strike capacity of Ukraine is improving, with Moscow, Bryansk, Tula & Pskov hit last night. Pskov (near Estonia) appears a particularly damaging hit with TASS reporting Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft hit with two on fire (destroyed) and two others damaged.

Russia's strike capacity diminished over the course of the campaign, however is now reportedly operating at replacement levels which suggests an ability to maintain a less intense high-precision strike campaign infinitum.

[Nerd]

Time to review all the major developments of the last 7-10 days.

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

The Russians can be considered as ‘confirmed’ to have launched domestic production of Shahed-136/Geran-2s, because since about a week, they’re capable of running new attacks by them literally every night. AFAIK, the mass of these attacks was targeting wheat depots of Ukrainian ports on the Danube River.

In detail, the Russians have released:

- 2 September: 25 Shaheds (22 claimed shot down)

- 3 September: 32 Shaheds (23 claimed shot down)

- 6 September: 25 Shaheds (15 claimed shot down; this attack was enhanced by 7 Kh-101/555 released from 9 Tu-95s, and one Iskander-M: all of these were claimed shot down)

- 7 September: 33 Shaheds (25 claimed shot down)

- 8 September: 20 Shaheds (16 claimed shot down)

About 90% of these have targeted grain terminals in the Izmail area, that’s the southernmost grain-exporting terminal of Ukraine, positioned on the Danube River, some 90m across from Romania. The port and the terminal have received extensive damage. BTW, at least one of Shaheds was either shot down, or malfunctioned and crashed inside Romania. As usually, NATO either denied or downplayed this, even when the impact site was geolocated in the social media: free along the motto, ‘it was Russian, so not a very big boom there’….

Additionally, on 6 September, the Russians targeted the market in Konstantinivka (10km west of Bakhmut), killing 16 and wounding 28. They have also hit a field kitchen of an Ukrainian unit in the place named Borove, apparently east of Kharkiv, causing some 20+ casualties…

Atop of this, according to the Keystone Cops in Moscow, between 25 August and 1 September, interceptors of the VKS have shot down 4 Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters.

On the Ukrainian side: a single Gepard-crew deployed in the Zhytomyr area claimed five Shahed-136 LPGMs during the nights of 19 and 30 August, and was decorated for this achievement.







Also successful remain the IRIS-T SAM-systems of the PSU: there are renewed reports that it’s got a 100% intercept rate (the video-still below is from early this year). These systems are regularly deployed closer to the frontline, too.







Finally, Ukrainians have continued their UAV-bombardment of targets deep inside Russia. Have hit targets in Moscow at least once, every of the last three nights. One of known targets is the headquarters of the Russian Federal Customs. Industrial facilities in Kursk, Bryansk, and Rostov-na-Donu were hit by Ukrainian UAVs, too. In Donbas, Ukrainians have targeted the railway station of Donetsk, late on 7 September, and - either on the same day, or day earlier - have knocked out a Predel-E electronic warfare system (apparently) in the occupied Crimea.

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina…After re-deploying all the VDV units to other sectors of the frontline, what the Russians doing in this area is looking like ‘improvement of tactical positions’, rather than attack. In the Synkivka area, they’re trying to encircle the Ukrainian garrison in this village from the western and eastern side. Ukrainians have counterattacked south-east of Synkivka area, back on 28-29 August, though, and ever since the area is quiet. The Russians might have gained some ground in the Novoyehorivka area, but have lost ground along the Zherebets River, in the Kremina area, and in the Serebryansk Forest.

Bakhmut…. In the north, the Russians have reinforced their positions in the Soledar area (which remains the ‘northern gate to Bakhmut’) with the 137th VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division), and then reinforced the same with the 29th BARS, 123rd MRB, and the Potok PMC. This group has, over the last week, managed to stop the Ukrainian advance in southern direction.

Klishchivka….sometimes the last week, the Russians brought in the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade and then counterattacked both north of Klishchivka, and into northern Klishchivka. I do not have all the details, only indications that this was a powerful counterattack, letting the Russians expect a lot from it. So much so, they began claiming to have recovered all the ground to the Siversky-Donets Canal. Of course, they never came as far, but: as result, they did manage to re-entr Klishchivka. As of the evening of 5 September, Ukrainians have recovered most of northern side of the village, and as of this morning, they’re reporting to have reached the local ‘railway station’, i.e. the railway embankment, and that Klishchivka is completely free of the Russians. Apparently, the Russians suffered such losses, that their last act in this area was the break down and run away.

The scope of this Russian counterattack is illustrated by the fact that it was run all along the railroad embankment to Andriivka, Except in the Klishchivka area, Ukrainians have managed to repel it, even to retain a ‘small bridgehead’ east of the embankment in the Andriivka area. In turn, perhaps as a consequence of this Russian counterattack, or some earlier, it turned out that except in the west of that village, Ukrainians do not have any presence in Kurdiumivka any more: they’ll have to attack the place (probably from north and/or south) again.

Reason for this counterattack?

The railway embankment is the last Russian defence line short of that fateful T0513 road: one of just two supply lines into Bakhmut. And since their defence positions along the embankment are ‘instable’, the Russians have attempted to defend it in form of a counterattack.

Avdiivka…after something like ‘few quiet weeks’, ZSU reported an advance into the Spartak village, on the north-eastern side of the Donetsk International.

Mariinka…over the last two months, the Russians have reached the western side of the completely ruined town. Plus the eastern side of the Pobjeda village, south of it. The last two-three weeks, they’re working themselves through the hedgerows south of Mariinka, though. Not much offensive capability left in their local troops.

UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

Vuhledar….the ZSU has recovered the (completely ruined) industrial zone of Pavlivka, but didn’t enter the village south of it, yet. West of Vuhledar, about a week ago, Ukrainians opened severe and sustained artillery barrage on Novodonetske and Novomaiorske. After (at least) three days of artillery preparations Ukrainians attacked on 5 September. Reportedly, they have managed to cross the minefields and overrun forward Russian positions, but then were stopped on the northern edges of both villages. According to the Russian reports, especially the situation of their troops in Novodonetske is critical.

Staromlynivka… The last five-six days, Ukrainian marine infantry brigades have crossed the Mokri Yaly River, cleared the ‘outskirts’ of Zavitne-Bazhanya and forced the Russians back into the centre of the village. That said, the primary focus of fighting in this area of the last week was Pryyutne (because the Russian garrison there proved particularly resillient, the last three months), and clearing the area between Pryyutne and Staromayorske (widely described as one of most-massively mined parts of Ukraine), with heights dominating this part of the Mokri Yaly River.

Novoprokopivka-Verbove… the ‘biggest’ news from this area of late August was the deployment of the 76th VDV Division, via the port of Beedyansk and Melitopol, to the Novoprokopivka area, about 10 days ago. On 3-4 September, large part of this division was deployed for a counterattack on Robotyne, run from south-west. Although supported by a barrage of S-300 SAMs deployed in ballistic mode (the Russians must really be desperate to start deploying S-300s against tactical Ukrainian positions) up to 40 strikes by MPK/UMPK glide bombs (released by Su-34s), and Ka-52 helicopters, this effort was repelled, though at some cost for the ZSU.

For their part, the Russians are continuously targeting the road from north to Robotyne with MPK/UMPKs (deployed by Su-34s). Essentially, they’re trying to interdict the flow of Ukrainian supplies by about two dozens of glide bombs a day. Problem: they can’t detect and track the ZSU’s military traffic there: instead, they are targeting a stretch of the road some 6km long. ….and I do not feel free to comment about ‘precision’ of their MPK/UMPK glide bombs (lets say that this video is a telling the entire story in this regards). Point is: a detonation of a 500kg-bomb (when it actually detonates), is never a ‘funny’ thing. Foremost, most of such attacks are coming without any advance warning, thus the travelling up and down that road is ‘very dangerous’.



Novoprokopivka…the ZSU is now in northern and western outskirts of the place, which is defended by the 71st and 210th MRRs.





Verbove….Through August, Ukrainian attacks have forced the Russian 417th Recce Regiment to fall back from its positions north of the village, back into the village. By around 20 August, the 118th Mech ZSU, was in the centre of the village, when a counterattack by the VDV brought in from western Luhansk drove it back north. About a week ago, the 46th Airborne crossed the 2nd anti-tank ditch in southern direction: it destroyed what was left of the 71st MRR, and two BARS regiments, and mauled the 201st MRR in the process. This penetration enabled the 82nd Airborne to follow in fashion: it crossed the 2nd anti-tank ditch and then turned east, hitting the 417th inside Verbove in its southern flank, driving it into the south-eastern part of the village (it was in the course of this battle that, 4-5 days ago, the 82nd lost its first Challenger 2 MBT: the Russians claimed all sorts of things, including Kornet ATGMs and artillery: actually, the tank was immobilised by mine, and then saturated by multiple Lancet LPGMs, which set it on fire; the crew evacuated already when the tank was immobilised).


The Hill 166 was under Ukrainian control, back around 3-4 September, but, since around 6 September, is back under the Russian control, and the 46th Airborne is back to attacking it.

The last three days the ZSU went after systematically destroying the Russian artillery brought in to reinforce what was destroyed in August. This is why there was a sharp increase in Russian artillery losses again (up to some 31 guns and howitzers were claimed as destroyed by the ZSU yesterday alone).

A little bit of analysis at this point – because I think the following figures are going to make much more sense than any kind of casualty figures, the mass of which is based on guessing, actually.

In the Robotyne area, four ZSU manoeuvre- and one artillery brigades took something like two months to destroy/render ineffective:

- 2 Russian reinforced motor-rifle divisions (19th and 42nd) ,

- 1 naval infantry brigade (810th)

- 1 artillery brigade (291st),

- 1 rocket artillery brigade (12th), and to maul

- 2 Spetsnaz brigades (22nd and 45th),

…i.e. an equivalent of three ‘full divisions, plus’.

At the time Ukrainians were something like day or two (at most) away from collapsing what was left of the 58th CAA, the Russians brought in another (weak) VDV division (two regiments). Still, this gave the 58th CAA only a minimal respite, before that division was mauled too. Thus, the Russians brought in the 76th VDV Division. This might have given them enough troops to – temporarily – stabilise their their (sole) defence line, and even launch a major counterattack. However, Ukrainians kept on pushing and are now in the process of mauling the same. Even more so because they have forced the Russians to scatter the 76th: its parts were distributed to reinforce battered remnants of the 58th CAA from Kopani, via Verbove to Noropokrovka and Novokarlivka.

….and this is, obviously, not enough. Quite on the contrary, despite some losses and much damage, all of involved Ukrainian brigades are remaining operational (funny moment about the Russian playing with figures about Ukrainian losses: Shoygu stating the ZSU lost 6 tanks ‘here’, then 6 tanks ‘there’, and then concluding this means Ukrainians have lost 11 tanks…perhaps that was the reason for Prigozhin’s mutiny: Shoygu is as bad in maths as I am…?)

Mind, the 76th was the ‘best of the rest’: AFAIK, the sole division-sized formation in all of the VDV and the VSRF that did not suffer major losses in the war so far. Essentially, it went into this battle still in quite the same shape in which it was at the start of the all-out invasion. Indeed, it spent most of the time ever since acting as ‘strategic reserve’. Meanwhile, this division is engaged as well, and thus not available as a reserve any more.

Therefore, it’s on hand that now the question is this: have the Russians left any other large formations with similar combat capabilities, which they could send to southern Zaporizhzhya and deploy along the frontline within the next 5-7 days?

The answer is ‘something like yes’. They’re in the process of deploying the 44th VDV Division (111th and 387th regiments) south of Novoprokopivka. The 210th MRR is on the way there, too and it seems the Russians are rapidly rebuilding the 291st MRR. Problem: the 44th is a reservist formation, and a far cry from the quality of the 76th. Sadly, the way for its deployment was open: the Kerch Bridge is back in operation, since 1-2 days, and word is that the bridges from the Crimea to the mainland Ukraine have been repaired, too…

Dnipro/Southern Kherson Oblast….the last week, the ZSU has established its third and fourth bridgehead on the southern bank of the river. In the west, it secured the entire Kinburn Peninsula (this is where Ukrainian Bayraktar TB.2 UAVs have ‘returned to combat’ – because Russian air defences are weak enough to enable their operations). North of there, the ZSU secured another area of some three-four kilometres width, perhaps 500m depth. The other two bridgeheads are in the Oleshky area, where Ukrainians are in the northern outskirts of the town, and north of Kozachi Laheri. AFAIK, there were no changes in positions in either, over the last 9-10 days. The Russians have deployed their new army and a new army corps along this frontline, over the last two weeks – to free their 49th CAA for operations further east – but: they seem to have completely given up their efforts to push Ukrainians back into Dnipro.

In the rear of these two frontlines, the Ukrainian resistance – Atesh – has significantly increased its activity, causing big troubles. Most importantly, dozens of Russian checkpoints along major roads have been evacuated, over the last week. Just one example to illustrate the dramatic change in this regards: the number of checkpoints on the road from Melitopol to Dneprorudnoe was decreased from 18 to just 3.

Tom Cooper

[Prahok]

Most of it sounds about right; not sure on the depth of the attack on Verbove, however anything is possible. He's the only one I know of (from either side) that's made claims about the Kinburn Peninsular. That would be very big news indeed, so I question it. There was a Ukrainian raid on the Kinburn Spit (a sliver of land at the far Western end of the peninsular) reported several days ago, however it appeared a clearance operation as opposed to a holding action.

Atesh have indeed been very active lately, with a recent assassination in Southern Kherson attributed to them. They've been actively identifying targets for Ukrainian missile & drone strikes in Crimea.

[Nerd]

I’ve ‘intentionally delayed’ this report for at least 24 hours, in expectation of possible news ‘from the south’, which then didn’t turn up. Anyway, here a summary for the last few days.

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

On 9 September, a Russian military warehouses outside Staryi Krym and Fedosya were hit by ‘something’…

On 10 September, the Russians released 33 Shaheds at Ukraine: 26 were claimed shot down.

On 11 September, the Russians released a stream of 11 Shahed LPGMs: all 11 were claimed as shot down by the PSU. They are also known to have deployed one Kh-31P and one Kh-59 missile from their Su-34s. I guess it was one of the latter two that knocked out Ukrainian ST-68U early warning radar outside Kryvorizhzhya, in the Donetsk Oblast – some 70km from the nearest point on the frontline.

Some 5-6 days ago (though, officially: ‘on 11 September’), Ukrainian special forces have recovered the Boyko offshore oil rigs in the Black sea, east of the Zmiyni Island. These were occupied by the Russians already in 2014, and were helping them control a large chunk of airspace over north-western Black Sea.

During the night from 11 to 12 September, several Ukrainian UAVs seem to have hit targets in the Kursk and Rylsk areas. However, it was the way that 12 September ended that was ‘spectacular’ – at least for Ukraine, its air force, and for much of population of Sevastopol (less so for the sailors of the Russian Black Sea Fleet). Using Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG missiles, the PSU hit the area of two drydocks in the port, destroying amphibious assault ship Minsk (Ropucha-class), and a Kilo-class submarine B-237 Rostov-na-Donu (‘destroying’ because I doubt the Russians can repair either with locally-available means). There are contradictory reports about the weapon used, some citing Neptune anti-ship missiles modified for land-attacks, others Storm Shadows. I’m leaning towards the latter version alone because of the range: me thinks, the weapons in question were air-launched. Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is air-launched, Neptune not. Moscow have confirmed ‘damage’, ‘two killed and 26 wounded’, but nothing else.


Around the same time, the Russians released a stream of 44 Shaheds: 32 were claimed shot down, but the rest came through. Most have pounded the grain storage sites around Izmail. In the Kyiv area, one hit an ammunition storage dump in Rokytne.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk-Svatove…that big Russian push between Serhivka and Novoprokopivka might have gained the VSRF some 100-500 metres, but not much more. Essentially, two of their brigades and two tank regiments run into Ukrainian 43rd Mech and 68th Jäger, and was smashed to pieces. Pity is only that most of destroyed Russian T-80s and BMPs are behind their line, and thus there are too few photos and videos of their wreckage. Guess, with this, things are going to get quieter for a while, because the VSRF is meanwhile busy rebuilding units of the 41st CAA mauled in the last two months, and replacing them with the newly-established 25th CAA.

Kremina…. Essentially, since the withdrawal and re-deployment of VDV units from this area, Ukrainians are making small, slow advances through the Serebriyansky Forest. It’s 100m one day, 50m the other. The Russians have limited their activity to torching what’s left of the forest with incendiaries.

Bakhmut….south….no idea why are there still reports about ‘Russian attacks’ in this area (at least in the social media), because the Russian side of the frontline fell very silent since the failure of their counterattacks, about a week ago. Thus, the 3rd and 5th Assault of the ZSU were able to completely secure, mop-up, and heavily fortify both Klishchivka and Andriivka, in the last few days, and then work on further expansion of their bridgeheads east of the railway berm. IN Kurdyumivka… not exactly sure who is in control, only that the Russian 11th VDV and (what was left of) 72nd MRB have suffered losses there, the last few days.

Avdiivka….on 8-9 September, the 53rd Mech ZSU did something ‘really unexpected’ and launched an attack on the Russian positions in Opytne and Spartak, south of the town and on northern fringes of the (completely ruined, already since 2014) Donetsk International. As first, a diversionary attack hit the 287th MRR (one of former DPR-units) in Spartak, causing it heavy losses. Then, supported not only by its own the 53rd assaulted the 1439th MRR in Opytne, prompting it into a panicky retreat. The Russian artillery at the airport misunderstood that for an Ukrainian advance, and opened fire, killing dozens of fleeing Russians. Ever since, fighting is going on inside Opytne: the place was not yet entirely under Ukrainian control as of this morning.

AFAIK, and sadly, that is as far as Ukrainians have managed to get. Meanwhile, the Russians have rushed all the possible reinforcements from some 6-7 different brigades and regiments to stabilise their frontline – and Ukrainians are lacking the amount of armour necessary for a bigger breakthrough. As said so often: they can only advance at the pace of their infantry, which is leaving enough time for the Russians to bring in reinforcements and create a new defence line. I do find it pity Ukrainians haven’t had another 2-3 brigades to support this attack with stronger push against the Russian 111th MRR in Pisky: such a ‘pincer’ push could have caused a massive trouble for the Russians in Vodyane, because they were taken completely by surprise. At least it was ‘nice’ to see the local VSRF commander lost the control of the battle, early on.

UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

When it comes to this sector of the frontline, for me, the last few days were something like ‘days of uncertainty’. Guess, Ukrainian troops experienced them as days of heavy pressure. The reason is that over the last two weeks the Russians deployed no less than four VDV divisions to rebuild the mauled 58th CAA. And while many of ‘desantniki’ of these divisions are reservists, they are still a full magnitude better trained than what’s left of the VSRF, nowadays. Generally, the ZSU reacted with vicious artillery barrages. From what I’ve got to hear, some of artillery units shot more shells in the first 10 days of this month, than back in entire June, just for example.

Staromlynivka…The presence of the VDV was most heavily felt by troops of the 23rd Mech in Pryyutne: indeed, these have helped the remnants of the Russian 60th MRB and the 349th MRR to force Ukrainians out of the village and into the field fortifications north and west of it.

In the Zavitne Bazhanya, Ukrainian naval infantry didn’t make any further advances, the last few days.

That said, fresh VDV troops didn’t help the Russian garrison in Novodonetske: this has suffered heavy losses to a three-prong Ukrainian attack, and is meanwhile driven into the southern side of this village – plus under pressure from west and even south-west (i.e. almost cut off). Further east, Ukrainians (35th Naval Infantry Brigade) have expanded their bridgehead over the Shaitanka River in the Novomayorske area, and forced the 131st and 1466th MRRs into the central and southern parts of that village.

Robotyne-Verbove… On 8-9 September, the Russians run a counterattack into south-western Robotyne: this was repelled, though. In another counterattack they claimed a ‘major success’ north of Verbove, when they counterattacked the 118th Mech and reported the recovery of some 2,5 fields there. Whether they really recovered something is unclear, though.

Still, these two counterattacks were enough to slow down Ukrainians and thus there’s not much in terms of ‘advances’ to report from this area. The last I’ve heard,

- the 47th Mech was pushing into Kopani;

- the 46th Airborne was in the first few houses of northern Novoprokopivka; perhaps in first few houses of eastern Novoprokopivka, too….and it continued pushing from the 1st anti-tank ditch in southern direction, towards Hills 162, 166, and 169, east of Novorprokopivka.

- 82nd Airborne is pushing into Verbove (might have been forced to withdraw from its centre, though), against the 247th VDV and 417th Recce Regiments.

That’s about it for today: hope to have time for ‘much more’ in the coming two days.

-Tom Cooper

[Prahok]

During the night from 11 to 12 September, several Ukrainian UAVs seem to have hit targets in the Kursk and Rylsk areas. However, it was the way that 12 September ended that was ‘spectacular’ – at least for Ukraine, its air force, and for much of population of Sevastopol (less so for the sailors of the Russian Black Sea Fleet). Using Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG missiles, the PSU hit the area of two drydocks in the port, destroying amphibious assault ship Minsk (Ropucha-class), and a Kilo-class submarine B-237 Rostov-na-Donu (‘destroying’ because I doubt the Russians can repair either with locally-available means). There are contradictory reports about the weapon used, some citing Neptune anti-ship missiles modified for land-attacks, others Storm Shadows. I’m leaning towards the latter version alone because of the range: me thinks, the weapons in question were air-launched. Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is air-launched, Neptune not. Moscow have confirmed ‘damage’, ‘two killed and 26 wounded’, but nothing else.

Satellite photos this morning appear to show the two ships in dry-dock extensively damaged, likely beyond repair.

Makes one wonder why Russia is using dry-dock facilities in Sevastopol given the propensity of Ukraine to strike the port, let alone for ships as important as these two.

[Nerd]

During the night from 11 to 12 September, several Ukrainian UAVs seem to have hit targets in the Kursk and Rylsk areas. However, it was the way that 12 September ended that was ‘spectacular’ – at least for Ukraine, its air force, and for much of population of Sevastopol (less so for the sailors of the Russian Black Sea Fleet). Using Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG missiles, the PSU hit the area of two drydocks in the port, destroying amphibious assault ship Minsk (Ropucha-class), and a Kilo-class submarine B-237 Rostov-na-Donu (‘destroying’ because I doubt the Russians can repair either with locally-available means). There are contradictory reports about the weapon used, some citing Neptune anti-ship missiles modified for land-attacks, others Storm Shadows. I’m leaning towards the latter version alone because of the range: me thinks, the weapons in question were air-launched. Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is air-launched, Neptune not. Moscow have confirmed ‘damage’, ‘two killed and 26 wounded’, but nothing else.

Satellite photos this morning appear to show the two ships in dry-dock extensively damaged, likely beyond repair.

Makes one wonder why Russia is using dry-dock facilities in Sevastopol given the propensity of Ukraine to strike the port, let alone for ships as important as these two.

The Rostov-on-Don submarine of the Russian Navy was neutralized in occupied Crimea.

On the night of September 13, explosions rang out in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

As a result of rocket fire in Sevastopol, a fire occurred at the Sevastopol Shipyard.
Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced damage to two ships under repair.

Those were the Minsk large landing ship and the Rostov-on-Don submarine.


Ukrainian intelligence confirmed the attack on Sevastopol. The representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Andrii Yusov, said that the planned work on the demilitarization of the peninsula continues.

Two dead and 26 injured were reported. According to ForPost, among them were no employees of Sevastopol Shipyard.


As of the afternoon, the Minsk ship was still burning. Analysts of the Oryx OSINT project concluded that the ship was not just damaged, but completely destroyed.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-rosto ... evastopol/

[Nerd]

Western Luhansk

More details became available about the raid into Russia last week: Russian Volunteer Corps together with others units «Format 18» conducted another successful raid in the border zone. At least one FSB officer was killed and about 10 wounded. Location: Podyvot'e (Подывотье), Bryansk People Republic at 52.04608, 34.14764



A Russian vehicle was destroyed by a drone near Kreminna.



The 9M22S is a 122mm rocket that deploys 180 chunks of magnesium alloy that burn for two minutes at 3800F/2100C. They’re being used here on Ukrainian positions in the Kreminna forest.



Image of thermite elements:

https://armamentresearch.com/soviet-or- ... aine-2022/

Southwest of Kreminna, slow motion video of a fragment moving past French soldiers of the International Legion ZSU:



13 km southwest of Svatove and about 2 km from the front lines, a Russian BTR is destroyed by DPICM. 49.369640, 37.959621



Bakhmut

Ukraine is pushing closer to Soledar, and thatn on a relatively wide front:


11 km north of Bakhmut, the 30th brigade clears Russian mines as part of the assault on the hamlet of Sacco and Vanzetti. 48.74722, 38.02543



A tank attacks the Russian positions before the 30th Brigade clears the treeline. The Ukrainian infantry arrives aboard an IFV that provides fire support. The log on the back of the vehicle is to help provide traction if it gets stuck in mud or soft ground. At 0:20, a Ukrainian rises to his knees to throw a grenade and a shot hits the ground in front of him. At 0:25, two Russian soldiers pop up in the top left corner of the video and the suppressive fire of the IFV prevents them from engaging the Ukrainian infantry. A drone harrasses Russian infantry and convinces one to surrender:




Last week the Ukrainians took control of the defensive positions on the railway north and south of Andriivka. Russian movement and supplies in and out of the remaining positions were interdicted by artillery. This week Ukraine pushed east of the railway to encircle the Russian positions still holding out in the village and railway. Before conducting an assault, the Ukrainians flew a drone with a loudspeaker over the positions of the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade (MRB), announcing they were surrounded and should surrender in the next ten minutes before the attack begins. Many Russians surrendered and the rest were then wiped out.

That assault completed the destruction of Russia’s 72nd MRB. An intel officer and three battalion commanders were among the dead with two battalion commanders wounded. There’s no word on the fate of the brigade and regimental commanders but there were dozens of POWs. Over the last few months they suffered over 4,000 casualties (killed, wounded, and taken prisoner of war): Here’s a video of the survivors retreating and being shelled at 48.502853, 37.974230:



In Andriivka, the Russians fired an artillery shell on surrendering Russians and the Ukrainians that were taking them prisoners. The shell was remarkably accurate. Who walked away and who was obliterated was a product of chance:



3rd Assault ZSU conducts an early morning assault towards the railroad south of Andriivka. The Russian positions do not support their neighboring positions very well and the 3rd is able to attack each one with superior firepower. A Russian drone is shot down and mortars are the biggest threat the Ukrainians face. 48.4904301654, 37.9669103023



2 km east of Andriivka, DPICM connects with a forward depot.



3.5 km east of Andriivka, DPICM connects with another depot. And I learned that the shock waves are visible by the condensation of water vapor in the low pressure zone that trails the shock wave.



After months of fighting, what was once homes, green fields and trees is now a gray, desolate landscape. Two Ukrainian soldiers move into the rubble of Andriivka amid gunfire and mortar attacks:



Russians retreating under fire from Andriivka at 48.51852052029089, 37.97856225735643:



Ukraine doesn’t have enough night vision equipment, but it has more than Russia and that gives them an advantage at night. A Russian assault group advancing on Klischchiivka from the north at night is hit by DPICM. The crew of a supply truck run away when they hear the drone before it is destroyed. It’s easier to pick up heat signatures when the weather is cooler. The shell coming straight down is from artillery. The shell flying over the trees was fired by a tank. The Ukrainian soldier retrieving the drone at the end isn’t wearing sunglasses at night, he’s wearing ballistic glasses that have protected quite a few eyes from bullets, fragments and debris:



This video if full of bodies in what’s left of a treeline near Andriivka (for those that want that information, I understand if you don’t):



A Russian report from 14 September on troops hanging on in isolated houses in Klishchiivka.



Ukrainian artillery pounding the isolated Russian-occupied houses in Klishchiivka:



Excellent Twitter-thread by Tartarigami chronicling the 28th Brigade’s campaign towards Kurdyumivka:



A Russian vehicle is hit by a drone 3.5 km east of Kurdyumivka. No images after impact at 48.475306, 38.039389:



10 km east of Kurdyumivka a GMLRS rocket hits a Russian BM-21 MRLR (48.4685477, 38.0946623):



Ukrainian helicopters support operations around Kurdiumivka:



26 km southeast of Bakhmut, a Lancet team was destroyed. 48.420616, 38.261837



Ukraine claims to kill a tank after two drone hits.



35 km east of Bakhmut, two Buk air defense units were destroyed (at 48.615996, 38.472547):

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love

20 km southeast of Bakhmut, two JDAM bombs his a Russian base in a firestation (48.4373711531, 38.2252883456):



On the ground:



Avdiivka

A sudden Ukrainian attack south of the town caused a panicky Russian withdrawal from the Opytne area, which then turned into a rout. Russian drone operators saw over 200 soldiers streaming across a field and called in artillery on their own troops, killing 61 of them. Russia quickly threw reinforcements over the small river and into Opytne to hold onto it, but Ukraine is inside the village.

Russian POWs from Opytne.



9 km southeast of Avdiivka, a 203mm gun is destroyed. 48.0905578, 37.8824228



Mariinka

A firefight in what used to be woods.



Mokri Yaly Valley

The Russians have pushed Ukraine completely out of Pryiutne. Novodonetske is still under Ukrainian pressure from three sides and the Russians have been pushed into the souther edge of Novomaiorske.

Russia says Ukraine is in the outskirts of Novomaiorske and they've retreated to the center of the village. Ukrainian troops assaulting under artillery fire.
47.742417, 37.024617 to 47.738546, 37.029745



A Ukrainian vehicle is hit and damaged northwest of Novomaiorske. 47.750231067001, 37.01421147063333



In between the Mokri Yaly valley and Robotyne, Russian positions are hit with cluster rounds. 47.61427668924406, 36.35168166930417



7 km south of Novomaiorske, a Shilka engages a Ukrainian drone. The Russians claim they shot it down. 47.667886, 37.045819



Two Ukrainian tanks hit mines two km west of Novodonetske. 47.74834772228125, 36.926203277956084



MRAP vehicles show up to evacuate the wounded tank crews who moved to the woodline. The evacuation effort comes under heavy and accurate artillery fire. MRAPs are not invulnerable but they are designed to withstand the blasts of mines and buried bombs used as IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices).



Robotyne

The deployment of four Russian VDV divisions slowed and even pushed back Ukrainian advances in the last couple of weeks, but they are suffering the same attrition that the units before them endured. Ukraine has advanced into the eastern Novoprokopivka and is once again pushing to its northwest. Furthermore, Ukraine is pushing west of Robotyne.

The last couple of weeks the Russian air force was regularly deploying MPK and UMPK glide bombs to target the road between Robotyne and Orikhiv. From September 14-16, Russian Su-34s have been dropping these same bombs not just on that road, but all the local roads and villages within 5-10 km of the front line. It appears that many of them are dropped at random while others were dropped with a target in mind. Most of the bombs hit empty fields, others hit closer, intentionally or randomly, and bombs calibre 250kg (MPK) and 500kg (UMPK) are causing lots of damage – if coming down closely enough. This bombing campaign is a contributing reason why so many armored vehicles are being repaired and why so many unarmored vehicles are destroyed.



In this fashion, Russia is trying to interfere with Ukraine’s supply routes, evacuations and troop movements, just as Ukraine is doing to Russia. In order to sustain its offense, Ukraine must sustain its people and vehicles.

I’ve seen Ukrainian tanks assault isolated Russian positions around Bakhmut, but never in the south before. You have to be reasonably sure there are few AT mines and AT weapons defending the objective. After spotting Russian positions with drones, two tanks from the 116th Mechanized brigade raced into a treeline and fired, point blank, into Russian positions. The only support they have is the overhead drone that recorded the video. At 0:33 into the video, the lead tank runs over two AP mines but these failed to immobilise it. At 2:15, an ATGM fires at the lead tank from behind at about 20 meters but misses. At 2:47, the drone operator warns of an incoming Lancet drone. Seven seconds later this missed, exploding in front of the lead tank and the drone operator celebrated. At 2:59, you can see houses along a treeline in the distance. That’s Novoprokopiva 1.5 km away. 47.421497, 35.865942



Ukraine advances towards Novoprokopivka under artillery fire that causes casualties. 47.4126885075, 35.8839721125



Russians stroll through northeast Novoprokopivka.
Starting at 47.4096538859, 35.853026669 and walking to 47.4086158264, 35.8492689011



3 DPICM and 4 HE shells destroy a Russian Strela air defense vehicle:



A Russian T-90 tank was hit and immobilized: at least one of the crew is a casualty. The Ukrainians recovered this vehicle and took it to their rear for repairs:



This video is shown T-55s of the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment, which fought in the Novoprokopivka area, back in August. Tanks in question were last build in 1962.



On the slopes east of Novoprokopivka, south of the main Russian minefield, Ukrainian tanks can operate relatively free: without running into mines and other obstacles. This is where the ZSU destroyed most of T-55s 1430th MRR. The Armed Forces continue to advance.



UNDATED: Russians shelling Ukrainians west of Verbove. 47.4360466144, 35.9435442457



After the shell lands, a fellow soldier pulls the wounded or killed soldier into a bunker.



A Ukrainian ‘mine-resistant/ambush-protected’ (MRAP) vehicle drove over an anti-tank mine and was destroyed. The crew were seriously hurt but survived.



The remains of the vehicle:



A Ukrainian soldier in distress after a TOS-1A attack.



40 km north of Berdyansk, a BM-30 was destroyed. It can fire 12 300mm rockets 120 km. 47.379915, 36.727414 ttps://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1702603096256319935

9 km northeast of Polohy, a Ukrainian drone survives an air defense missile. 47.546034, 36.335346



She was a teacher before the war. After the massacre in her hometown in Bucha, she joined the army.



Russian paratroopers are not enjoying the bombing and shelling.



POWs from the Russian 76th VDV Division said they’ve suffered heavy losses due to incompetent leadership, artillery and drones.



South of Robotyne, a Leopard is used as artillery and you can see the rounds fly down range.



The men of the 47th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU, offering their impressions of their Leopards (they’re mostly fighting at night and at dawn):



Kamianske

The 128th Mountain Assault Brigade is fighting the Kamianske sector. This is the story of the soldier who drove Ukraine’s first kamikaze tank towards Russian lines. Spoiler alert: He has a new nickname. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21498

Nearby, a JDAM bomb takes out a Russian position. 47.495973, 35.454874



-Donald Hill

[horace]

Nerd, just a suggestion.
For those us who are not that interested in the details it might be better to simplify things and add some maps. I for one cannot follow all the acronyms, VDV, AFU, etc. Who the fuck is who? Show me the maps and graphs, these I can understand. The footage was far more interesting from the first two Gulf Wars and all of these videos are too alike, in my opinion.
Who is winning?
What's the stats?
That is all most people (non- Ukrainian) want to know. The rest is just propaganda ( which is what Cockneys do when they have a long look at something!).

[Prahok]

I for one cannot follow all the acronyms, VDV, AFU, etc. Who the fuck is who?

The acronyms are difficult. The one I still struggle with is ZSU, which refers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but since "Z" is the symbol of the Russian forces involved in the invasion I automatically associate any such acronym with Russia.

Simplified version of events coming out on the 24th, as per usual.

[Prahok]

End of Month 19 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Black Sea is a hive of activity and Ukraine continues the grind as its counter-offensive continues along several fronts.

In Russia, Ukraine launched several drone strikes throughout the month, including striking airbases in Moscow, Bryansk, Tula and Pskov, with Russia media reporting two Il-76 transport aircraft damaged and two destroyed in Pskov. Three further aircraft (one Mi-8 Helicopter and two transport aircraft) were damaged in a secured airfield near Moscow by saboteurs.

In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.

In Luhansk, Russia continued pressing its offensive, though momentum effectively ceased with several combat capable units relocated to Zaporizhzhia to stem the Ukrainian advance.

In Donetsk, Ukraine continued the assault South of Bakhmut, retaking Klischiivka and Adriivka. There were slight advances by Ukraine South of Adviika and by Russia in Marinka.

In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine pushed South, West and East of Robotnye, making it into the village of Verbove. Russia heavily reinforced its positions in this area with paratroopers from the Luhansk front. This action temporarily halted Ukrainian advances in this sector in the latter part of the month, though momentum appears to have returned with reports of Ukrainian armour operating behind the primary line of Russian anti-tank defences. Russian managed to penetrate Ukrainian air-defence with a drone and attacked an airfield 70km behind the front-line, damaging a Ukrainian Mig-29.

In Kherson, there were reports Ukraine controls Pervomaisky Island, near the Kinburn Peninsular.

In Crimea, a Russian “Predel” over-the-horizon radar unit was destroyed, reportedly by a modified Neptune anti-ship missile combined with a Ukrainian special forces raid, with an S-400 air defence system also destroyed two weeks later. In the resulting air-defence gap, Ukraine launched a missile and drone attack on a dry dock facility in Sevastopol striking the landing ship Minsk and the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don. Both suffered catastrophic damage and are most likely unrecoverable. A strike several days later hit a secondary command centre of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Saky airbase (damage assessment unknown at time of writing). The following day the main Black Sea Fleet HQ was struck with Storm Shadow missiles. There are conflicting reports as to who was present, though some clarity is expected in the coming weeks.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine reportedly took control of the ‘Bokyo Towers’, oil and gas platforms that were lost to Russia in 2014. The Russian hoverborne guided-missile corvette Samum was reportedly struck by a new type of Ukrainian naval drone, though not sunk. Ukraine also claim seriously damaging the patrol ship Sergey Kotov with naval drones though the Russian MOD deny the report. There are reports Russia is moving its remaining landing ships in the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov where they are less susceptible to naval-drone attack.

Robotyne salient, c/- @War_mapper

[Prahok]

Ukraine claims the strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ killed the commander of the fleet, Admiral Viktor Solokov along with a number of senior officers as they were attending a meeting. Russia claims one serviceman was killed.

There is no evidence as yet as to his current status.

[Prahok]

Russia launched a large, multi-pronged assault on Avdviika, committing a significant amount of armour, infantry, artillery and aviation. The intent appears to be to encircle the town.

Russian forces appear to have made some gains to the North of Avdiivka, with significant losses in armour recorded.

Other large armoured thrusts occured near Marinka and Kremmina.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/ ... vka-a82722