I'm glad to be out of the UK, but what do you make of this then Harold ? ;
11 Predictions for the next 10 years: Part III The decline of America and failure of the Western financial system
1. 2015 America has been in decline for over a decade, but this process has been disguised by the printing press, which has created an artificial impression of growth. The reality is that the middle class has been shrinking rather than expanding, a sure sign of long term contraction of the American Empire.
2. 2015 The decline in American power projection will create a vacuum that will encourage the continuation of the pattern of small wars across the globe.
3. 2015 Unless the West deploys ground troops and a web of alliances combined with judicious air power and artillery support against ISIS, it is on track for another failed pilot war. Losing its third pilot war in two decades will only encourage Chinese aggression.
4. 2015-2017 The deficit will continue to grow to unsustainable levels leading to a US default. However, the financial reality of the condition of the US debt burden will reach a point of financial crisis where it will become obvious to the world that America is close to bankruptcy. This crisis is imminent (within the next two years) and most probably will take place before Obama leaves office.
5. 2015-2017 There is a major risk of a severe equity market decline (possibly focussed on Europe) to be accelerated by Chinese intervention in a similar fashion to US intervention against Britain in the Suez Canal crisis.
6. 2015-2017 Shale oil will not change the balance of power in America’s favour or arrest its financial decline as it is very expensive to produce. In the next two years, oil prices will be suppressed. A deflationary price squeeze combined with the Saudis’ over-pumping strategy, will endanger America’s energy security strategy. This will force many oil shale producers out of business unless America introduces subsidies.
7. 2015-2017 The Republican Party will win the White House as America attempts to arrest its decline. However, new policies designed to compete with China on all levels will in all probability be too late, unless they are enacted with great national vigour.
8. 2015-2020 A failure of the American financial system will prevent it from competing in the current arms race with China. This will shift the balance of power dramatically in China’s favour.
9. 2015-2020 The American failure in Afghanistan and Iraq should be classified as failed pilot wars that have emboldened both China and Russia to be more aggressive. Henceforth, America must only fight wars that it will put all its resources into to gain a quick victory or else, it will risk another failed pilot war that will further expose its global interests to aggressive action.
10. America’s only salvation against Chinese military expansion and aggression will be the development of new high tech weapons that overcome Chinese numerical superiority. Furthermore, it will have to ensure that new technology developments remain safe from Chinese and Russian cyber incursions.
http://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry ... ure-of-the
Part V Britain to increasingly lead the Western world
1. 2015 With America and Europe in decline, that only leaves Britain on an upward trajectory within the old Western Christian Super Empire.
2. 2015 Thus, only the British will have a positive outlook, and be able to strategise ahead rather than fighting the day to day fires of decline, resulting in a new perspective on global strategy.
3. 2015 Britain should create a new constitution that integrates both Anglo-Saxons and multigenerational immigrants into one inclusive social and secular value system.
4. 2015 During the next election in 2015, Britain will see a political move to the right and policies of wealth creation which will be the second phase of Thatcherism.
5. 2015-2020 Britain should seek to use its commonwealth links to develop stronger political links and trading relationships to replace those of a failed Europe.
6. 2015-2020 India is a prime example, and Britain should enter into a defence relationship, sharing its technology in return for building capacity that will allow the Royal Navy to grow. Particularly, with the Astute-class submarines and the type 45 destroyers which are world class.
http://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry ... he-western
11 Predictions for the next 10 years
- spitthedog
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11 Predictions for the next 10 years
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
8. 2015-2020 A failure of the American financial system will prevent it from competing in the current arms race with China. This will shift the balance of power dramatically in China’s favour.
2013 Military Expenditures:
USA $640 Billion
China $ 188 Billion
And if America goes south financially, what's to become of China, when the US is it's biggest market?
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Prediction number 12 : Elstree studios in the UK will be the new Hollywood!!!LexusSchmexus wrote:One or two of his points have some validity, but LOL! Britain as a new world superpower?! That's where he loses all credibility. This union-jack-wearing little Anglo-Saxon is dreaming in technicolour. The days of Nelson are long gone.
Also, his timetable is way off. Bears will be bears....
"I don't care what the people are thinking, i ain't drunk i'm just drinking"
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Starving Pelican wrote:Whenever I read predictions, I always think of two from the 1950s: Burma and the Philippines will be two of Asia's leading powers by the 1970s.
They could have been, had it not been for bad politics spoiling good economies. The Singaporeans got it right. Deprive people of real political choice in a Faustian trade off to give them more prosperity.
Having said that I'm enjoying watching some good Channel News Asia documentaries about Singapore lately, especially the one highlighting Singapore's poor communities.
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That's kind of my point. Things have potential to develop in the way we predict, but issues may change the course of history completely.alanclarke72 wrote:Starving Pelican wrote:Whenever I read predictions, I always think of two from the 1950s: Burma and the Philippines will be two of Asia's leading powers by the 1970s.
They could have been, had it not been for bad politics spoiling good economies. The Singaporeans got it right. Deprive people of real political choice in a Faustian trade off to give them more prosperity.
Having said that I'm enjoying watching some good Channel News Asia documentaries about Singapore lately, especially the one highlighting Singapore's poor communities.
In terms of singapore, it's essentially a very miserable place if you're a low-income earner.
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I think the author is maybe a big fan of Kondratieff waves, so this might be some part of the reasoning for the timing of these events, and going by that we are still in the Winter phase. I find these waves interesting when you think about how WW2 steel production and supplies to the allied forces etc, kick started the U.S out of the Great Depression, and was essentially also the end of Britain as a global super power??
Kondratieff ''is best known for proposing the theory that Western capitalist economies have long term (50 to 60 years) cycles of boom followed by depression. These business cycles are now called "Kondratiev waves"
The technological cycles can be labeled as follows:
The Industrial Revolution—1771
The Age of Steam and Railways—1829
The Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering—1875
The Age of Oil, Electricity, the Automobile and Mass Production—1908
The Age of Information and Telecommunications—1971
Poor bloke was shot dead by a Stalin firing squad evidently as i guess the commy's couldn't handle the idea that economies actually had booms and busts.
Kondratieff ''is best known for proposing the theory that Western capitalist economies have long term (50 to 60 years) cycles of boom followed by depression. These business cycles are now called "Kondratiev waves"
The technological cycles can be labeled as follows:
The Industrial Revolution—1771
The Age of Steam and Railways—1829
The Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering—1875
The Age of Oil, Electricity, the Automobile and Mass Production—1908
The Age of Information and Telecommunications—1971
Poor bloke was shot dead by a Stalin firing squad evidently as i guess the commy's couldn't handle the idea that economies actually had booms and busts.
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2020-2021: A massive virus pandemic from China will give eleventy millions and crash the global economy. The world will run out of toilet paper, there will be weeping and wailing and moaning and gnashing of teeth and the Book of Revelation will unfold psalm by psalm.
Bringing the news. You stay classy, nas, Cambodia.
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Interestingly, quite a lot of those OP predications have come true.
Here's this week's uplifting news by David Murrin.
Submitted by David on Fri, 06/03/2020 - 18:00
Applying my theory of Human Anti Entropy, the Wuhan Virus is an agent of entropy that kills the weak and sick on an individual level. Whilst on a larger fractal also causes the most harm to the empires that are old, as compared to the younger nations like China that have vast reserves of National Energy.Thus this pandemic will test the national energy of all nations, but the surprise will be that the Western nations in the long run may well be worst effected than China and its Asian cousins.
The parallels between Plage of Justinian (541-542AD) and its impact on the declining Byzantine Empire could have uncanny similarities to the Wuhans virus's impact on America and the EU.Time will tell.
Meanwhile for those that are subcribers our Arkent Scenario has predicted and tracked each of the dominos of the various sectors in the global financial markets as they have fallen. Today every element of the market complex is reacting as we expected and predicted.
Oil and the commodity complex is collapsed in a demand slump
Precious metals and Bitcoin are rallying.
Bond yields especially in the US, are compressing to zero and beyond.
The Dollar is weakening
The stock markets have fallen in a wave 1 and bounced like a dead cat in a wave 2, that demonstrated that the Fed put is dead.
Meanwhile the Virus is spreading across the globe as we also predicted and global governments have all been manipulating the news flow. Notably China is still at a dead stop and we should all be asking what it took to stop 1.2 billion energetic Chinese? . The reported numbers make no sense, especially when Wuhan doctors are reporting death rates higher than SARs which was 10%
Meanwhile evidence is growing that the death rate is in reality much higher than initially predicted, especially when health services are swamped. The WHO upped their estimate to 3.4% This week, and we have now been informed there is a second strain that has mutated to be more deadly.
The infection is global and the Western nations have no chance of arresting its spread. Indeed they have acted way to slowly whilst trying to keep their economies going when they should have locked down totally five weeks ago and by locked down iIreally mean Wuhan style.
So what next? The answer is simple; Acceleration. When reality swamps denial everyone, will rush for the same door at once.
Next week looks to be that watershed moment when will with a high probability see a market crash(with a day with a grater than 10% fall which could be as large as 25%) and a shift as the collective denial is washed away by the power of reality.
https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entr ... by-reality
Here's this week's uplifting news by David Murrin.
Submitted by David on Fri, 06/03/2020 - 18:00
Applying my theory of Human Anti Entropy, the Wuhan Virus is an agent of entropy that kills the weak and sick on an individual level. Whilst on a larger fractal also causes the most harm to the empires that are old, as compared to the younger nations like China that have vast reserves of National Energy.Thus this pandemic will test the national energy of all nations, but the surprise will be that the Western nations in the long run may well be worst effected than China and its Asian cousins.
The parallels between Plage of Justinian (541-542AD) and its impact on the declining Byzantine Empire could have uncanny similarities to the Wuhans virus's impact on America and the EU.Time will tell.
Meanwhile for those that are subcribers our Arkent Scenario has predicted and tracked each of the dominos of the various sectors in the global financial markets as they have fallen. Today every element of the market complex is reacting as we expected and predicted.
Oil and the commodity complex is collapsed in a demand slump
Precious metals and Bitcoin are rallying.
Bond yields especially in the US, are compressing to zero and beyond.
The Dollar is weakening
The stock markets have fallen in a wave 1 and bounced like a dead cat in a wave 2, that demonstrated that the Fed put is dead.
Meanwhile the Virus is spreading across the globe as we also predicted and global governments have all been manipulating the news flow. Notably China is still at a dead stop and we should all be asking what it took to stop 1.2 billion energetic Chinese? . The reported numbers make no sense, especially when Wuhan doctors are reporting death rates higher than SARs which was 10%
Meanwhile evidence is growing that the death rate is in reality much higher than initially predicted, especially when health services are swamped. The WHO upped their estimate to 3.4% This week, and we have now been informed there is a second strain that has mutated to be more deadly.
The infection is global and the Western nations have no chance of arresting its spread. Indeed they have acted way to slowly whilst trying to keep their economies going when they should have locked down totally five weeks ago and by locked down iIreally mean Wuhan style.
So what next? The answer is simple; Acceleration. When reality swamps denial everyone, will rush for the same door at once.
Next week looks to be that watershed moment when will with a high probability see a market crash(with a day with a grater than 10% fall which could be as large as 25%) and a shift as the collective denial is washed away by the power of reality.
https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entr ... by-reality
Up the workers!
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