UK General Election thread
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- Wun Gwo Pee
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UK General Election thread
It seems there are a lot of Brits on here, and the next election is only 45 days away, so I thought a thread to monitor developments and debate would be interesting. The Tories seem to have made up a lot of ground on Labours' poll lead. Given the austerity measures, the Tories' relative strength is interesting.
So key questions: Will UKIPs strong poll position translate into seats, forcing another coalition, and who will they align with?
As the election draws closer, will one of the two main parties's support crystallise, taking support away from who?
How much of a liablity is Ed Milliband?
So key questions: Will UKIPs strong poll position translate into seats, forcing another coalition, and who will they align with?
As the election draws closer, will one of the two main parties's support crystallise, taking support away from who?
How much of a liablity is Ed Milliband?
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- I live above an internet cafe
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It not UKIP who will be the king makers. The SNP are predicted to get 50 seats and look likely to hold the balance of power. Unfortunately they are a bunch of clowns and will cause chaos. I predict a further election within a matter of months. Some of Salmonds comments in the last few days are unbelievable.
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- 2000+ Posts! Aghh I Have No Mates
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I'm going to stick with one poll source for ease of reference to monitor the countdown which will be The Guardian as its the first I found with a nice translation of percentages to seats. TheIr current poll projects as follows :
Conservatives - 276
Labour - 270
SNP - 53
Lib Dems - 25
Other - 21 ( NI )
Greens - 1
Monster Raving Loonies aka UKIP - 4
Conservatives - 276
Labour - 270
SNP - 53
Lib Dems - 25
Other - 21 ( NI )
Greens - 1
Monster Raving Loonies aka UKIP - 4
"Everywhere we go .. people want to know ...who we are... where we come from !"
Tartan Army retired foot soldier
Tartan Army retired foot soldier
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- MerkinMaker
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I'll be voting by post for UKIP. I advise anyone else who has a non EU spouse to do the same.
The UK needs to reclaim its right to manage its own affairs and an exit from the EU is the only way to achieve that.
I liked the original idea of the EU but I despise what it's turning into, which is effectively a United States of Europe.
The UK needs to reclaim its right to manage its own affairs and an exit from the EU is the only way to achieve that.
I liked the original idea of the EU but I despise what it's turning into, which is effectively a United States of Europe.
UKIP are a bunch of clowns - I doubt they'll get many seats. They've had one embarrassment after another with a continual string of racist, homophobic and sexist candidates. It surely can't be that hard for them to find candidates with a bit of nous? It'll certainly be an interesting election.
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- 2000+ Posts! Aghh I Have No Mates
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I think it's shaping up to be a very interesting election purely on the basis of the potential coalition partnerships that may be required to form a majority, which is much more intriguing than the old Tory/Labour see saw. Quite a few permutations for either side at the moment.
"Everywhere we go .. people want to know ...who we are... where we come from !"
Tartan Army retired foot soldier
Tartan Army retired foot soldier
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- MerkinMaker
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I don't think they do, I think what's really happening is anyone affiliated with the party is under the microscope and there is media smear campaign in full swing. The British establishment does not under any circumstances want an end to the two party first past the post system that the UK has. A third party that has the ability to take votes from the left and the right is a danger to that system and they will do anything to stop it.Peaktu wrote:UKIP are a bunch of clowns - I doubt they'll get many seats. They've had one embarrassment after another with a continual string of racist, homophobic and sexist candidates. It surely can't be that hard for them to find candidates with a bit of nous? It'll certainly be an interesting election.
What's interesting is they are now changing tactics. The first tactic was to brand UKIP a far right party by trying to establish links with right wing groups, but that appear to have backfired as the last opinion poll showed that British voters believe UKIP to be to the left of the conservatives. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 23416.html.
UKIP isn't right or left. If you look at their policies if they are to be described as anything it would be librarian in the traditional sense, not the U.S "God and Guns" bastardisation of the philosophy.
If you are married to a Cambodian and ever wish to return you should vote UKIP and this is why: https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/ ... my-husband
The other parties are making election promises to cap NET migration, this means the number of people who enter the UK, minus the number who return. As they can't control entry to the UK from EU citizens, the only avenue they have is to limit non-EU citizens. As they already have strict rules on economic migrants the only group left to crack down on is families.
Did you know that if you have been gone from the UK for more than five years you will be counted a migrant on government numbers when you return, as will your British passport carrying children? So for example if the mother in a family of four is the only one without a British passport, keeping her out will most likely also keep out the other three British passport carrying members of her family. Therefore that's a big win for the government, that another four people that won't dirty their net migration numbers.
The current spouse visa laws are ridiculous and will be tightened again after this election. Currently, the British citizen in the relationship has to show six months taxable income of above £18,000 IN THE UK, before their spouse can even apply for the visa (which can't be applied for from within the UK). The decision process takes between twelve and eighteen months, during which time the UK partner must remain in the UK and continue earning at that level. This means that to bring your family back to the UK the family will be broken apart for a minimum of eighteen months.
The system is deliberately designed to make it unattractive for us to return and expect it to get worse rather than better.
Mark Reckless who defected from the Conservatives to UKIP was branded a racist and anti-immigration. Google his name, I bet the first few pages are just smears from the MSM. Dig a little deeper and listen to the speech he gave when he announced his defection, these are his exact words:
UKIP want an Australian style points based immigration system where all people are treated equally regardless of their nationality. The other parties want an open door to anyone inside the EU and draconian laws to keep out anyone from outside the EU, regardless of whether they have strong family or historical ties to the UK. Which one sounds more right wing to you?I promise to cut immigration while treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a Conservative; I can keep it as Ukip.
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- MerkinMaker
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The insanity of the British electoral system is underlined by the current poles. The SNP with only 3.3% of the vote will get 40 seats in parliament whilst UKIP will likely get only 2 seats with 15% of the popular vote. You've got to love British democracy!
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- Wun Gwo Pee
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starkmonster wrote:
The current spouse visa laws are ridiculous and will be tightened again after this election. Currently, the British citizen in the relationship has to show six months taxable income of above £18,000 IN THE UK, before their spouse can even apply for the visa (which can't be applied for from within the UK). The decision process takes between twelve and eighteen months, during which time the UK partner must remain in the UK and continue earning at that level. This means that to bring your family back to the UK the family will be broken apart for a minimum of eighteen months.
?
I'm not denying your knowledge of the process, but an acquiantance of mine managed to get his Thai spouse a spousal visa in under three months from start to finish and they are now happily married in Cheshire. Furthermore 'she' is a post op transexual. I don't know what he urns, but he is a mid-level management in a factory, so I'm assuming it's not megabucks.
Either way, it will be an interesting election. I assume the most likely outcome is a pact between Labour and SNP and the country takes yet another step back ten years.
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- MerkinMaker
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The rules changed last July, any application that began before that date weren't effected.
I'm modern Britain having your meat and veg removed probably scores more points than having British children.
I have no plans to return, but I also don't appreciate having the door closed behind me.
I'm modern Britain having your meat and veg removed probably scores more points than having British children.
I have no plans to return, but I also don't appreciate having the door closed behind me.
Also... if you are away for more than six months, your right to free dental and medical is denied for the first 3 months under the new rules, or so i was told 1 week before i left. Apparently to stop the Expats who come back once a year or so for operations and other expensive medical treatment.
I was a dummy in school.
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That's fair - Ukip are downplaying their racist card and indulging in the mainstream tactic of expenses fraud.What's interesting is they are now changing tactics.
The (now) four main parties in England are all utter shite. Only the Greens have integrity (admittedly they chose the wrong leader), but have been clobbered by the mainstream media while, contra starkmonster's perception, Ukip have revelled in publicity.
I came, I argued, I'm out
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- 2000+ Posts! Aghh I Have No Mates
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I've always been in favour of a proportional representation based system as a route to a much more democratic outcome. The 1983 election stands out as particularly undemocratic in terms of votes cast:starkmonster wrote:The insanity of the British electoral system is underlined by the current poles. The SNP with only 3.3% of the vote will get 40 seats in parliament whilst UKIP will likely get only 2 seats with 15% of the popular vote. You've got to love British democracy!
Tories - 42.4% votes 397 seats
Labour - 27.6% votes 209 seats
Lib/SDP - 25.4% votes. 23 seats
"Everywhere we go .. people want to know ...who we are... where we come from !"
Tartan Army retired foot soldier
Tartan Army retired foot soldier
I'm sticking with the pollsters that are perenially put their money where their mouths are, tho bookies...
Most seats Conservative 4/9 Labour 2/1
Next PM Cameron 1/2 Milliband 6/4
So there is the result, don't worry about the news channels/newspapers trying to glam it up. They did that with the Scottish Referendum, but it was never even close according to the bookies, who as ever nailed it.
Most seats Conservative 4/9 Labour 2/1
Next PM Cameron 1/2 Milliband 6/4
So there is the result, don't worry about the news channels/newspapers trying to glam it up. They did that with the Scottish Referendum, but it was never even close according to the bookies, who as ever nailed it.
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