Putin fly out of window or nuke.
Ukraine
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
- Reactions: 222
- Posts: 1434
- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
Narrative is key, as it has been from the beginning. The Kremlin must convince Russians as to need for this war, something it has struggled with (border guards not recognising Russian passports from those who received Russian citizenship in Ukraine is not helping). Kyiv doesn't need to convince Ukrainians as to their right to exist, but they do need to convince international backers regarding their continued investment, something that is also uncertain (particularly with right-wing pundits pushing a pro-Putin narrative going into election cycles).
In the end it concludes when either one side or the other triumphs, or when both are exhuasted, but conclude it will.
I have my bets, but as they are imbued with my bias which is premised upon a number of assumptions, they aren't worth printing.
2
2
Hmmm...Barbarossa comes to mind.Guest wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:55 pmThat’s all very well but as Greece and Turkey are both in NATO there is zero chance of a Turkish attack.
History is littered with states invading others they had agreements with.
False sense of security, perfect opportunity
"It's the prisoners or your children", says Wagner boss while recruiting canon fodder from the prisons. Thousands of prisoners to be pardoned by signing up.
So Russia really scraping for man power yet has a million strong army and another 2m reservists all of which have been unable to be deployed.
So Russia really scraping for man power yet has a million strong army and another 2m reservists all of which have been unable to be deployed.
scrumpycider wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:14 amHmmm...Barbarossa comes to mind.Guest wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:55 pmThat’s all very well but as Greece and Turkey are both in NATO there is zero chance of a Turkish attack.
History is littered with states invading others they had agreements with.
False sense of security, perfect opportunity
Is it really necessary for you to reference Hitler in every single post vlad?
Comparing the Nazi-Soviet pact - which was largely opportunistic - to a decades long strategic alliance is nonsense. No NATO country will ever invade another NATO country. It would mean being at war immediately with every other member, including the US.
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
- Reactions: 222
- Posts: 1434
- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
The issue of Russia's manpower was raised on this thread about four or five months ago, with an informative summary from Binkov's Battlegrounds. Even back then, it was clear Ukraine had a manpower advantage (quantity and quality), however they had a severe heavy equipment, aviation and munitions deficit. Severe.Dylan Quint wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:04 pm"It's the prisoners or your children", says Wagner boss while recruiting canon fodder from the prisons. Thousands of prisoners to be pardoned by signing up.
So Russia really scraping for man power yet has a million strong army and another 2m reservists all of which have been unable to be deployed.
Despite Ukraine's manpower advantage, they have a problem, in that they have to defend all of Ukraine. Hence many units (albeit primarily Territorial Defence Forces) are spread across the country to ensure that any unanticipated armoured thrust is akin to punching fog. It is highly effective, however reduces the capacity to concentrate forces for offensive maneuvers.
What the advantage allowed, was for Ukraine to throw units into the fight whilst sending additional units to other countries, and even within Ukraine, to be well trained on tactics, force integration, management practices and new weapon systems. The cost on those units in the fight, buying time for their countrymen to be trained, has been high.
Russia made a mistake of early on filling combat gaps with units from training faciities (assuming the war would be short), significantly degrading training capacity. Hence the 3rd Army Corps, containing many volunteer battalions, suffers from rushed, low quality training. Any subsequent forces face the same problem.
The disparity in available troops is well understood by both sides, which is why the Russian milblogger community is calling for a general mobilisation, and why the Ukrainians call for heavy equipment.
It is also why Wagner have been openly recruiting in Russian prisons since July.
1
1
- Hot_Pink_Urinal_Mint
- I need professional help
- Reactions: 74
- Posts: 1044
- Joined: Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:19 pm
- Location: Right behind you
Imo, it would be foolish to take Ankara's long term commitment to the NATO alliance as a given. I'm confident that Erdogan hasn't forgotten that failed coup by the Gülen Movement (and most likely the CIA)Guest wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:55 pm
That’s all very well but as Greece and Turkey are both in NATO there is zero chance of a Turkish attack.
OMG, you're joking, right?Guest wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:47 pmIs it really necessary for you to reference Hitler in every single post vlad?
Comparing the Nazi-Soviet pact - which was largely opportunistic - to a decades long strategic alliance is nonsense. No NATO country will ever invade another NATO country. It would mean being at war immediately with every other member, including the US.
NO country would risk a war if it harmed their self-interests
Would you prefer we just forget about WW2 because you are snowflaky-allergic to one of the most famous examples of treaty-breaking in history?
The UK and US are famous for deserting allies in their hour of need.
You're delusional if you think that any piece of paper is more important than self-interest.
Greece itself refused to send hardware out of concerns for its safety. But hey, you know better than the Greek government. I'm sure you should be an overpaid consultant advising them to chill and send it. Don't give up your day job just yet.
People always honour agreements...bwahahaa
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
- Reactions: 222
- Posts: 1434
- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
Unfortunately, Vlad, this is one of the issues at the heart of the matter; degrees of confidence.vivathedivas wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:05 amYou're delusional if you think that any piece of paper is more important than self-interest.
The Ukrainians surrendered their nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees. As Russia has not honoured those guarantees, going as far as to state the non-existence of Ukrainians as a people, there is a strong belief in Kyiv that a Putin-led Kremlin can never be trusted.
This extremely low degree of confidence significantly reduces the chances of a negotiated end to this conflict.
It's encouraging to see India PM publicly remind Putin, "..it is not an era for war." One can only hope his flight back to India is an uneventful one.
Regardless, Putin is still intent on taking all of Ukraine, but will have to change strategies. Not really sure why Russia hasn't targeted infrastructure more by means of long range missile/artillery strikes to achieve that aim.
Regardless, Putin is still intent on taking all of Ukraine, but will have to change strategies. Not really sure why Russia hasn't targeted infrastructure more by means of long range missile/artillery strikes to achieve that aim.
Prahok, I am greatful for your posts, you summarize your insights and readings so I/we don't need to follow things so closely. Thanks.
When you say Putin remains intent on all of Ukraine, are you talking far distant future, or within the next year or three?
My guess and extension.
Ukraine is not a land of harsh high mountains and remote tribal communities like Afghanistan, but the majority of Ukrainian people have certainly shown a similar strong will for self rule. Putin must know by now that holding that collective urge for freedom in the dirt, whilst proudly standing astride the nation as a whole is a hell of a lot harder than merely militarily capturing all of the country, and even that, with outside support, is proving a VERY difficult task.
Nestled in bed at night, he may still dream of a Soviet Union sized country, but in daytime's bright light, he must realize that even Russia's closest allies would never support him in realizing that. The 'Dominos' didn't all topple in SEA, but some parts of this IDEA retain the capacity to trouble many nations, and not only amongst former Soviet states. China, for one, doesn't much desire a weak and begging Russia, but they certainly don't want an equal competitor either. It doesn't seem so strange that China and India have now clearly suggested limits to their patience, but it does seem strange if Putin has not by now limited his goals.
When you say Putin remains intent on all of Ukraine, are you talking far distant future, or within the next year or three?
My guess and extension.
Ukraine is not a land of harsh high mountains and remote tribal communities like Afghanistan, but the majority of Ukrainian people have certainly shown a similar strong will for self rule. Putin must know by now that holding that collective urge for freedom in the dirt, whilst proudly standing astride the nation as a whole is a hell of a lot harder than merely militarily capturing all of the country, and even that, with outside support, is proving a VERY difficult task.
Nestled in bed at night, he may still dream of a Soviet Union sized country, but in daytime's bright light, he must realize that even Russia's closest allies would never support him in realizing that. The 'Dominos' didn't all topple in SEA, but some parts of this IDEA retain the capacity to trouble many nations, and not only amongst former Soviet states. China, for one, doesn't much desire a weak and begging Russia, but they certainly don't want an equal competitor either. It doesn't seem so strange that China and India have now clearly suggested limits to their patience, but it does seem strange if Putin has not by now limited his goals.
Agree, Prahok's posts are excellent.Guest9999 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:10 pmPrahok, I am greatful for your posts, you summarize your insights and readings so I/we don't need to follow things so closely. Thanks.
When you say Putin remains intent on all of Ukraine, are you talking far distant future, or within the next year or three?
My guess and extension.
Ukraine is not a land of harsh high mountains and remote tribal communities like Afghanistan, but the majority of Ukrainian people have certainly shown a similar strong will for self rule. Putin must know by now that holding that collective urge for freedom in the dirt, whilst proudly standing astride the nation as a whole is a hell of a lot harder than merely militarily capturing all of the country, and even that, with outside support, is proving a VERY difficult task.
Nestled in bed at night, he may still dream of a Soviet Union sized country, but in daytime's bright light, he must realize that even Russia's closest allies would never support him in realizing that. The 'Dominos' didn't all topple in SEA, but some parts of this IDEA retain the capacity to trouble many nations, and not only amongst former Soviet states. China, for one, doesn't much desire a weak and begging Russia, but they certainly don't want an equal competitor either. It doesn't seem so strange that China and India have now clearly suggested limits to their patience, but it does seem strange if Putin has not by now limited his goals.
Putin's rhetoric is clearly to take Ukraine and as long as it takes. However, Putin has to reconfirm his economic support from countries he is reliant on to take his gas and oil e.g. China and India specifically.
Putin has to rethink this because it couldn't be worse for Russia at the moment and actually at a crossroads both tactically and politically as scrutiny grows within the country.
Really hoping he doesn't crank it up a gear, though constraints do limit that.
Putin's age is a problem, simply because he's aware of it, and so he doesn't really care about the consequences of his actions in the same way a younger person might.
He may be determined to see it through before he dies, and that may make him very reckless.
Too many geriatrics among world leaders in my opinion. Biden, Putin, Al Saud, The Poop, Harald V
He may be determined to see it through before he dies, and that may make him very reckless.
Too many geriatrics among world leaders in my opinion. Biden, Putin, Al Saud, The Poop, Harald V
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
- Reactions: 222
- Posts: 1434
- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:33 pm
It was Dylan Quint who made the statement, though he may well be correct.Guest9999 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:10 pmWhen you say Putin remains intent on all of Ukraine, are you talking far distant future, or within the next year or three?
Putin's words and actions suggest a nationalist imperialistic agenda. In this sense, expansion is an end unto itself. It is a hard sell to the broader Russian public, which may explain the muddled narrative around "denazification" & "demilitarization" as well as the heightened wariness of Kazkhstan, Finland and the Baltic states.
This is the reason Ukraine expresses disinterest in any peace terms that involves concession of land; Kyiv feels it will embolden this agenda.
Recent changes in rhetoric from the Kremlin suggests managing expectations of the Russian public by limiting objectives to the Donbas; a far clearer and saleable objective. This may ease some of the political fallout from a potential withdrawal from Kherson City whilst enabling Russian forces in Southern Kherson Oblast, Southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Luhansk Oblast to adopt defensive postures (which requires much less man-power). It would still require Donestk Oblast to be taken, which has proven extremely difficult but will be more achievable with a greater concentration of forces.
Before this phase of the war I felt I had a reasonable gauge on Russian long-term objectives. Now I am struggling to understand the short-term.
-
- Similar Topics
- Replies
- Views
- Last post
-
-
Argue about Ukraine/NATO/NWO etc
by Hot_Pink_Urinal_Mint » Wed Feb 08, 2023 12:24 pm » in 'Not' Cambodia - 133 Replies
- 22247 Views
-
Last post by zippitydoodah
Tue Apr 23, 2024 5:39 am
-
-
-
2024, Cambodian Deminers in Ukraine
by Guest9999 » Thu May 19, 2022 10:27 pm » in Cambodia Speakeasy - 4 Replies
- 3001 Views
-
Last post by guest9
Sun May 22, 2022 12:04 pm
-
-
-
Bali and Indo plan to revoke visas for Ukraine and Russian tourists.
by YaTingPom » Thu Mar 16, 2023 6:37 pm » in 'Not' Cambodia - 2 Replies
- 2078 Views
-
Last post by YaTingPom
Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:30 pm
-