Ukraine
Bakhmut still holding- quite surprisingly. Unsurprisingly huge (Russian) losses, Ukraine quiet about there own casualties.
Wagner seem to be back in the picture after the issues, but also reports of Chechens being brought to the rear to shoot deserters from the mobiks and DPR volunteers *take with pinch of salt.
The Ukrainians apparently blew up a dam in the Berkhivske Reservoir, flooding the area from south of Berkhivka towards Pidhorodne in the north. The Russians claim to have the Road 0506 into Bakhmut under their artillery fire.
Ukraine propaganda shows defenders in high spirits- in short Russians gaining slowly, but paying in serious amount of blood.
Personally I expected a full withdrawal from Bakhmut 2-3 weeks ago- the fact it hasn't happened means either that the Ukrainians are idiots and losing men for vanity, or the Russians are idiots and losing more men for vanity.
Wagner seem to be back in the picture after the issues, but also reports of Chechens being brought to the rear to shoot deserters from the mobiks and DPR volunteers *take with pinch of salt.
The Ukrainians apparently blew up a dam in the Berkhivske Reservoir, flooding the area from south of Berkhivka towards Pidhorodne in the north. The Russians claim to have the Road 0506 into Bakhmut under their artillery fire.
Ukraine propaganda shows defenders in high spirits- in short Russians gaining slowly, but paying in serious amount of blood.
Personally I expected a full withdrawal from Bakhmut 2-3 weeks ago- the fact it hasn't happened means either that the Ukrainians are idiots and losing men for vanity, or the Russians are idiots and losing more men for vanity.
- Prahok
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There are multiple reports the VDV are involved in the attack, particularly to the North and possibly elsewhere, as Wagner forces and tactics had a low return. Hence it is in Ukraine's interest to attrit the VDV by continuing fighting in Bakhmut (I've no idea of the cost to the Ukrainians, however clearly they feel it is a positive return).Nerd wrote: ↑Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:34 pmPersonally I expected a full withdrawal from Bakhmut 2-3 weeks ago- the fact it hasn't happened means either that the Ukrainians are idiots and losing men for vanity, or the Russians are idiots and losing more men for vanity.
Essentially the Ukrainians were in trouble in Bakhmut once they lost Soledar. Once the salt mines were taken the clock started ticking.
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It appears the rasputista is early this year. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/2 ... in-donetsk
Here comes the mud.
It is unclear who this assists. Whilst it will slow down the Russian advance (not that the advance was moving at pace), it will also complicate Ukrainian capacity to supply Bakhmut given Russian fire control over most sealed roads.
It will buy the Ukrainians time to integrate their newly acquired armour, however also impede their ability to counter-attack in the near-term, taking some pressure off Russian forces near Kreminna.
The early thaw also hints at a longer Summer, which is the time for maneuver warfare.
Here comes the mud.
It is unclear who this assists. Whilst it will slow down the Russian advance (not that the advance was moving at pace), it will also complicate Ukrainian capacity to supply Bakhmut given Russian fire control over most sealed roads.
It will buy the Ukrainians time to integrate their newly acquired armour, however also impede their ability to counter-attack in the near-term, taking some pressure off Russian forces near Kreminna.
The early thaw also hints at a longer Summer, which is the time for maneuver warfare.
There were reports on Twitter yesterday, seemingly now confirmed that there was an attack on Belarus Machulishchy near Minsk. A Beriev A-50 (similar to an AWACS type aircraft) was damaged by explosions.
A drone attack has been blamed, with fingers being pointed at both Ukrainian SF and Belarusian 'partisan' rebels.
A real risk that the war might begin to spread, with Moldovan situation also uneasy.
A drone attack has been blamed, with fingers being pointed at both Ukrainian SF and Belarusian 'partisan' rebels.
A real risk that the war might begin to spread, with Moldovan situation also uneasy.
- Prahok
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Any move by the few Russian forces in Transnistria will result in the Ukrainian army moving into their rear. The Moldovans are forewarned (though still terribly weak militarily).
But that is rather the point; the potential needs to be there in order to force Ukraine to commit offensive potential near the border with Moldova, thus removing it from Donetsk or Luhansk.
Should Ukraine go on the offensive in late Spring/early Summer and take a strategically key location, such as Melitopol, that puts Crimea at risk then the Kremlin may feel the Moldovan card needs to be played to draw further Ukrainian resources.
Speculation on my part, as much of it depends on the state of Ukrainian reserves. Ukraine are making a song and dance about it, but for all we know are using the area to rest combat units as part of a regular rotation from the front.
Of course, should the Ukrainian army collapse and the Russians take Mykolaiv and Odessa then Moldova will indeed be in trouble. Elements of the Russian command stated as much back in March 2022.
If the claim that an attack inside Belarus was made by Belarussian 'opposition' it is very interesting, Don't forget that 2020/21 Belarus was on the verge of an uprising, with protestors killed and thousands imprisoned. others exiled and that RyanAir flight from Athens to Vilnius diverted to Minsk illegally to detain Roman Protasevich.
A revolt in Belarus- supported or not by the West, would certainly be a development in the war.
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Interesting graph showing where Russian war casualties come from.
Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
- Prahok
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Reports suggest Ukraine has either withdrawn, or is the process of withdrawing from Bakhmut.
At the very least there is a lot of movement, though Prigozhin is claiming the Ukrainians are reinforcing the city.
At the very least there is a lot of movement, though Prigozhin is claiming the Ukrainians are reinforcing the city.
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A strange situation is unfolding in Bryansk (Russian Oblast bordering Ukraine). There are reports of an armed group attacking one or two villages near the border of Ukraine. Russia is blaming Ukrainian saboteurs, though it seems unlikely the Ukrainians would engage in such (there are reports of Ukrainian forces working inside Russia however they target military and key transport infrastructure). Putin has just gone on national TV denouncing the attacks.
A group called the "Russian Volunteer Corps" claimed responsibility. Most pro-Ukrainian accounts are calling this a false-flag though some reputable accounts state this group exists, though what their possible motivation for such an action remains unclear.
A group called the "Russian Volunteer Corps" claimed responsibility. Most pro-Ukrainian accounts are calling this a false-flag though some reputable accounts state this group exists, though what their possible motivation for such an action remains unclear.
- Prahok
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Ukraine appears to have withdrawn from the Eastern half of Bakhmut (a river dissects the city). Whether this is part of a larger staged withdrawal remains to be seen, however publicly the Ukrainians are stating their intent to continue fighting for the city.
map c/- @War_Mapper
map c/- @War_Mapper
Loads of speculation in western and pro ukraine media. This blogger sits in Ukraine and has a pretty good track record matching both western and russian progress maps and numbers every day.
https://rumble.com/v2c95mo-ukraine.-mil ... 03.08.html
add this to it and you no longer need to see the traditional propaganda: https://avia-pro.net/
If you sit in Europe you may perhaps not see some of this due to censorship.
https://rumble.com/v2c95mo-ukraine.-mil ... 03.08.html
add this to it and you no longer need to see the traditional propaganda: https://avia-pro.net/
If you sit in Europe you may perhaps not see some of this due to censorship.
- Prahok
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It looks as if Ukraine are going to slog it out in Bakhmut, with the casualty rate for both sides climbing. The rasputista will make resupply problematic as Ukraine doesn't have solid control over sealed roads out of the city and is relying on compact dirt roads that are susceptible to churn from heavy vehicles. There also remains the chance of encirclement, though Russian forces appear to have stalled in their attempt to do so.
Ukraine appears to believe the attrition ratio between defenders and attackers is worth the price and it is buying precious time for a large Ukrainian counter-offensive to be prepared (this is unlikely in any major form until the ground hardens, however localised counter-attacks are already starting to occur).
Bakhmut is a very high-stakes game.
Ukraine appears to believe the attrition ratio between defenders and attackers is worth the price and it is buying precious time for a large Ukrainian counter-offensive to be prepared (this is unlikely in any major form until the ground hardens, however localised counter-attacks are already starting to occur).
Bakhmut is a very high-stakes game.
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