Ukraine
- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
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Week 34 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and Russia and Ukrainian power infrastructure has been degraded, with reportedly 30% of power infrastructure damaged.
In the West, North and North East missile and drone strikes continued with civilian infrastructure including power and heating facilities being the focus of strikes. There was a small attack by Russian forces into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, though this was unsuccessful.
Russian troops moved into Belarus for the new military formation and the rhetoric from Lukashenko continued through the week. T-72 Tanks and various types of ammunition were transported from Belarusian storage to Russia which is inconsistent with an impending invasion from the North. There were no reported changes to the Belarusian force’s posture.
Along the Luhansk front Ukraine made continued gains towards Svatove, capturing several towns to the North West and West of the city. Russian forces attacked Westwards from Kreminna and have not reportedly taken any towns, though Ukraine may have been forced out of one locale.
In Donetsk, Russia continues to commit a large number of forces to take Bakhmut, though the front line did not change through the week. The fighting is reportedly remaining at a high intensity with a high number of casualties.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no changes reported. Russian rear positions and logistics hubs were targeted during the week.
In Kherson, Ukraine has moved substantial forces into the region and there is tight operation security, meaning little information is being released. Several hours ago, the Russian installed authorities in Kherson City called for the complete evacuation of Kherson City and towns on the right bank of the Dnieper River, claiming a Ukrainian threat to the Khakova Dam which would flood the city. This appears to be setting information conditions for the withdrawal of Russian forces from the right bank of the Dnieper and suggests Ukrainian forces are advancing. A follow-up message from the same authorities regarding an impending Ukrainian assault upon Kherson City itself supports this.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/ ... -difficult
In the West, North and North East missile and drone strikes continued with civilian infrastructure including power and heating facilities being the focus of strikes. There was a small attack by Russian forces into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, though this was unsuccessful.
Russian troops moved into Belarus for the new military formation and the rhetoric from Lukashenko continued through the week. T-72 Tanks and various types of ammunition were transported from Belarusian storage to Russia which is inconsistent with an impending invasion from the North. There were no reported changes to the Belarusian force’s posture.
Along the Luhansk front Ukraine made continued gains towards Svatove, capturing several towns to the North West and West of the city. Russian forces attacked Westwards from Kreminna and have not reportedly taken any towns, though Ukraine may have been forced out of one locale.
In Donetsk, Russia continues to commit a large number of forces to take Bakhmut, though the front line did not change through the week. The fighting is reportedly remaining at a high intensity with a high number of casualties.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no changes reported. Russian rear positions and logistics hubs were targeted during the week.
In Kherson, Ukraine has moved substantial forces into the region and there is tight operation security, meaning little information is being released. Several hours ago, the Russian installed authorities in Kherson City called for the complete evacuation of Kherson City and towns on the right bank of the Dnieper River, claiming a Ukrainian threat to the Khakova Dam which would flood the city. This appears to be setting information conditions for the withdrawal of Russian forces from the right bank of the Dnieper and suggests Ukrainian forces are advancing. A follow-up message from the same authorities regarding an impending Ukrainian assault upon Kherson City itself supports this.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/ ... -difficult
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The use of kamikaze drones has circumvented any perceived missile shortage/priority issues. All Russia has to do is nibble away at infrastructure and Ukraine will become paralysed. Drone attacks on power pylons will keep ahead of repairs, and unfortunately weapons systems promised by the west will still take time to arrive and training required on top of that.Prahok wrote: ↑Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:26 amIt is an interesting strategy as I am uncertain if Russia has sufficient missiles to sufficiently degrade the electricity grid to the point the country is paralyzed, as destruction needs to outpace the rate of repair which is reasonably high. Each missile used on this infrastructure is a missile that is not used on critical logistical infrastructure, particularly bridges over the Dnieper...
When Russia begins it's counter-counter-offensive, the Ukranians will need to retreat, and will possibly lay land mine carpets as they do.
Unfortunately the longer view doesn't bode well for Ukraine. Iran has promised to deliver more drones and also long range missiles. If Russia's allies and the west keep pouring arms in to Ukraine then it 'just' becomes another theatre of war for East vs West.
Should Zelensky begin thinking about a more diplomatic solution? instead of this protracted war which, to be candid, will eventually decimate Ukraine.
If you are going to die or even live your life as a slave, would you prefer to do that standing up fighting or on your knees begging for the rest of your life.. Most Ukrainians would give the first as an answer.Dylan Quint wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:23 amThe use of kamikaze drones has circumvented any perceived missile shortage/priority issues. All Russia has to do is nibble away at infrastructure and Ukraine will become paralysed. Drone attacks on power pylons will keep ahead of repairs, and unfortunately weapons systems promised by the west will still take time to arrive and training required on top of that.Prahok wrote: ↑Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:26 amIt is an interesting strategy as I am uncertain if Russia has sufficient missiles to sufficiently degrade the electricity grid to the point the country is paralyzed, as destruction needs to outpace the rate of repair which is reasonably high. Each missile used on this infrastructure is a missile that is not used on critical logistical infrastructure, particularly bridges over the Dnieper...
When Russia begins it's counter-counter-offensive, the Ukranians will need to retreat, and will possibly lay land mine carpets as they do.
Unfortunately the longer view doesn't bode well for Ukraine. Iran has promised to deliver more drones and also long range missiles. If Russia's allies and the west keep pouring arms in to Ukraine then it 'just' becomes another theatre of war for East vs West.
Should Zelensky begin thinking about a more diplomatic solution? instead of this protracted war which, to be candid, will eventually decimate Ukraine.
- Prahok
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The drones certainly appear to be effective against civilian infrastructure.Dylan Quint wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:23 amThe use of kamikaze drones has circumvented any perceived missile shortage/priority issues. All Russia has to do is nibble away at infrastructure and Ukraine will become paralysed. Drone attacks on power pylons will keep ahead of repairs, and unfortunately weapons systems promised by the west will still take time to arrive and training required on top of that
The Ukrainians are bringing more kinetic anti-aircraft systems to bear as it isn’t cost effective using missiles. How that plays out going forward remains to be seen, however has proven effective in those areas where such systems are active.
Putin's latest reason for his war is to demilitarise Ukraine. Yet the attacks on civilian infrastructure have no or little impact on what happens on the front line.
The energy minister for Ukraine believes the latest attacks have destroyed the same amount of network the Oct 10-12 attacks did, approx 30%, total now damaged/destroyed at 60% ?
Russian forces in Kherson playing it comparatively quiet and there is speculation they are running so low on supplies that a retreat is not entirely out of the question.
Chess anyone?
The energy minister for Ukraine believes the latest attacks have destroyed the same amount of network the Oct 10-12 attacks did, approx 30%, total now damaged/destroyed at 60% ?
Russian forces in Kherson playing it comparatively quiet and there is speculation they are running so low on supplies that a retreat is not entirely out of the question.
Chess anyone?
- Prahok
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Russian backed authorities in Kherson City ordered the evacuation of citizens from the right bank of the Dnieper.Dylan Quint wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:00 amRussian forces in Kherson playing it comparatively quiet and there is speculation they are running so low on supplies that a retreat is not entirely out of the question.
There appears little evidence of an upswing in Ukranian activity, more a case of Russian forces being attrited to the point where the constant level of pressure from UA can no longer be resisted. This is primarily due to supply lines being narrowed and targeted over the past couple of months.
It remains to be seen if Kherson City will go without a fight as defenses are prepared and both the political and military significance is substantial. Russian forces may plan to reduce the front so it can be defended by a much smaller force they can supply.
- Prahok
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Week 35 of the Russo-Ukranian War and Ukraine continues to advance whilst Russia claims risk of a dirty nuclear bomb.
In the West, North and North East there were drone attacks and some failed cross-border attacks by Russian forces near Kharkiv.
Belarus put some of its forces under Russian control which heightened the risk of their involvement on the ground, though no change in their overall posture was reported.
On the Luhansk front, Ukraine made several advances and is closing in on Svatove. There are also reported advances North of kreminna, though these are unconfirmed.
In Donetsk, Wagner forces were pushed back from near Bakhmut, though maintain positions to the South of the town.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no changes.
In Kherson the fog of war remains thick. Russia appears to be moving reinforcements into the area, though at the same time is under pressure and lost some positions North and North East of Nova Khakova.
In the West, North and North East there were drone attacks and some failed cross-border attacks by Russian forces near Kharkiv.
Belarus put some of its forces under Russian control which heightened the risk of their involvement on the ground, though no change in their overall posture was reported.
On the Luhansk front, Ukraine made several advances and is closing in on Svatove. There are also reported advances North of kreminna, though these are unconfirmed.
In Donetsk, Wagner forces were pushed back from near Bakhmut, though maintain positions to the South of the town.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no changes.
In Kherson the fog of war remains thick. Russia appears to be moving reinforcements into the area, though at the same time is under pressure and lost some positions North and North East of Nova Khakova.
- chkai chgout
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Now they are going after The Big Guy.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/1 ... itary-goal
TASS: "The office of the Security Council of the Russian Federation considers it increasingly urgent to carry out the de-satanization of Ukraine." Russian disinformation has now jumped the shark of its hybrid warfare campaign, having failed in making a Ukraine “dirty bomb” a credible threat even as mass bombardment has terrorized the civilian population.
Putin mentioned satanism in his September speech as well as the GOP trope of the LGBTQ threat against heterosexuality even as Satan does tend to favor a gender binary in his self-presentation, although recent US dominionist discourse now claims something, something… trans-scapegoats.
Invading Ukraine to impose denazification failed, now RU wants de-satanization, more likely because they want the US and other nations’ right-wing swing to fundamentalist religions to be entangled in the support for Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin seems to want to help the GOP election turnout in two weeks, aside from helping some Chechens rationalize their participation in future Ukraine combat.
Apparently because the culprits are “using network manipulation and psycho-technologies” rather than being about an actually evident Church of Satan, the real perpetrator might be the Murdoch media empire. Trumpists are the real “totalitarian hypersect”.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/1 ... itary-goal
TASS: "The office of the Security Council of the Russian Federation considers it increasingly urgent to carry out the de-satanization of Ukraine." Russian disinformation has now jumped the shark of its hybrid warfare campaign, having failed in making a Ukraine “dirty bomb” a credible threat even as mass bombardment has terrorized the civilian population.
Putin mentioned satanism in his September speech as well as the GOP trope of the LGBTQ threat against heterosexuality even as Satan does tend to favor a gender binary in his self-presentation, although recent US dominionist discourse now claims something, something… trans-scapegoats.
Invading Ukraine to impose denazification failed, now RU wants de-satanization, more likely because they want the US and other nations’ right-wing swing to fundamentalist religions to be entangled in the support for Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin seems to want to help the GOP election turnout in two weeks, aside from helping some Chechens rationalize their participation in future Ukraine combat.
Apparently because the culprits are “using network manipulation and psycho-technologies” rather than being about an actually evident Church of Satan, the real perpetrator might be the Murdoch media empire. Trumpists are the real “totalitarian hypersect”.
- Prahok
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The Russians struggled with a clear narrative from the outset and moved further from such since. A clear narrative matters for morale both on the front and amongst the general populace.
The invasion has the hallmarks of an imperialistic action, however Putin appears unwilling to label it such even though ultra-nationalists support this view.
Recent attempts have been to frame Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia’s existence as a nation and society. It appears a tough sell.
The invasion has the hallmarks of an imperialistic action, however Putin appears unwilling to label it such even though ultra-nationalists support this view.
Recent attempts have been to frame Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia’s existence as a nation and society. It appears a tough sell.
I think only because the west has been meddling there. I don't think it would be tolerated in any other (previously USSR)border state either, to be honest
Explosive drone canoes attack Black Sea Fleet- damage reports unclear.
- Prahok
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Damage from the attack remains unclear, however it elicited a furious response from Russia. Videos suggest an Admiral Grigorovich class vessel was struck, which may be the flag-ship Admiral Makarov, though confirmation of this and the extent of damage (if any) is unknown.Nerd wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 7:46 amExplosive drone canoes attack Black Sea Fleet- damage reports unclear.
Russia suspended the grain export deal however Turkey and the UN have continued the programme and 12 ships left Odessa with grain yesterday.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/ ... withdrawal
- Prahok
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End of Week 36 of the Russo-Ukrainian War as the bezdorizhzhya (Uk)/rasputitsa (Ru) slows the pace of battle throughout the warzone.
In the West, North and North East there were missile & drone strikes. There was an intense bombardment of civilian infrastructure, primarily power, later in the week in response to the attack on Sevastopol. Ukraine power generation has been reduced by 40%, though additional air defences at power plants has seen an increased focus on water facilities and power distribution networks.
There were no changes in relation to the posture of Belarusian or joint Belarus-Russia forces.
Along the Luhansk front Ukraine continues to advance toward Svatove, and reportedly control part of the highway connecting Svatove with Kreminna to the South. Further advances were reported to the West and North of the strategic town.
In Donetsk, Russia continues attacking Bakhmut and hasn’t made any advances of note over the week, and was pushed back from some areas. Further South Russia had some success near Adviika, taking some minor ground North of the town and is reportedly on the offensive near Vuhledar, but without any reported success.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no reported changes.
In Kherson the situation remains shrouded in the fog of war. Russia continued the removal of civilians from Kherson City and reportedly moved some heavy artillery to the left bank of the Dnieper, though at the same time reportedly reinforced damaged units with mobilised soldiers. Ukraine made some minor advances through the week and continued to target Russian efforts to supply troops across the Dnieper. Russia removed the remains of Grigory Potemkin from Kherson City, though where they are to be taken is unclear.
In Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet was attacked in harbour by Ukrainian UAVs and exploding drone boats. The damage from the attack remains unclear, though the subsequent response from Russia suggests a degree of success. Ships continue to move Ukrainian grain under UN and Turkish guidance despite Russia stating their withdrawal from the grain export deal following the Sevastopol attack.
In Moldova, a cruise missile flying over the country was intercepted by Ukrainian air defence and landed within its borders, reportedly causing some minor damage. A Russian diplomat was expelled in response. There have been no changes regarding Transnistria.
In the West, North and North East there were missile & drone strikes. There was an intense bombardment of civilian infrastructure, primarily power, later in the week in response to the attack on Sevastopol. Ukraine power generation has been reduced by 40%, though additional air defences at power plants has seen an increased focus on water facilities and power distribution networks.
There were no changes in relation to the posture of Belarusian or joint Belarus-Russia forces.
Along the Luhansk front Ukraine continues to advance toward Svatove, and reportedly control part of the highway connecting Svatove with Kreminna to the South. Further advances were reported to the West and North of the strategic town.
In Donetsk, Russia continues attacking Bakhmut and hasn’t made any advances of note over the week, and was pushed back from some areas. Further South Russia had some success near Adviika, taking some minor ground North of the town and is reportedly on the offensive near Vuhledar, but without any reported success.
In Zaporizhzhia there were no reported changes.
In Kherson the situation remains shrouded in the fog of war. Russia continued the removal of civilians from Kherson City and reportedly moved some heavy artillery to the left bank of the Dnieper, though at the same time reportedly reinforced damaged units with mobilised soldiers. Ukraine made some minor advances through the week and continued to target Russian efforts to supply troops across the Dnieper. Russia removed the remains of Grigory Potemkin from Kherson City, though where they are to be taken is unclear.
In Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet was attacked in harbour by Ukrainian UAVs and exploding drone boats. The damage from the attack remains unclear, though the subsequent response from Russia suggests a degree of success. Ships continue to move Ukrainian grain under UN and Turkish guidance despite Russia stating their withdrawal from the grain export deal following the Sevastopol attack.
In Moldova, a cruise missile flying over the country was intercepted by Ukrainian air defence and landed within its borders, reportedly causing some minor damage. A Russian diplomat was expelled in response. There have been no changes regarding Transnistria.
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- Prahok
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Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the private military company Wagner, is becoming a prominent figure in Russian politics. There has been a concerted social media campaign aimed at the Russian domestic audience to promote Wagner forces and disparage Russian Ministry of Defence efforts, notably publicly criticising several powerful generals and deputies of the Duma. This may partly explain Wagner’s constant declarations of success in the Bakhmut theatre, despite the front moving incrementally for 4 months (even reversing of late) and the enormous numbers of Russian soldiers killed thus far in assaults despite the low strategic value of the town. Bakhmut is looking increasingly a vanity project.
Prigozhin is investing in a “Wagner Centre” in St Petersburg to act as an innovation hub whilst publicly attacking the Mayor of St Petersburg. In St Petersburg in particular he appears to be building a political base and given it is one of the two centres of power in Russia, a powerful base at that.
What Prigozhin’s end-game is, perhaps he himself does not know. He appears to be positioning for a post-Putin Russia (even if the War is won, Putin will not live forever), however runs the risk of being perceived as an immediate threat given his meteoric rise. As long as Wagner forces play an outsized role in the Russian domestic media-space, Prigozhin has a degree of insurance. Expect the wave of assaults on Bakhmut to continue.
Prigozhin is investing in a “Wagner Centre” in St Petersburg to act as an innovation hub whilst publicly attacking the Mayor of St Petersburg. In St Petersburg in particular he appears to be building a political base and given it is one of the two centres of power in Russia, a powerful base at that.
What Prigozhin’s end-game is, perhaps he himself does not know. He appears to be positioning for a post-Putin Russia (even if the War is won, Putin will not live forever), however runs the risk of being perceived as an immediate threat given his meteoric rise. As long as Wagner forces play an outsized role in the Russian domestic media-space, Prigozhin has a degree of insurance. Expect the wave of assaults on Bakhmut to continue.
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