Ukraine
- Prahok
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Serious amounts of Russian armour is being thrown into this assault. After only 48 hours the armour losses are reportedly the highest for the War. The Ukrainians claim the Russians lost three mechanised battalions of equipment (around 90 armoured vehicles), whilst those searching open source video for evidence have identifed a third of those.
The battle continues with another large assault underway.
Russia is making tactical gains, but at enormous cost.
c/- @suriyakmaps
The battle continues with another large assault underway.
Russia is making tactical gains, but at enormous cost.
c/- @suriyakmaps
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- Prahok
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End of Month 20 of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the Russians are attempting to regain the initiative as the mud returns and temperatures drop. Both sides are throwing big punches, but the front has largely remained the same.
In Russia, the “Freedom of Russia Legion” launched raids in Starosyle and Terebreno, Belgorod Oblast, as well as Lugovoi, Bryansk Oblast.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, Russia increased the tempo of its offensive, however there were no changes of note to the front. An airport in Russia-controlled Luhansk was struck with missiles, with five helicopters reportedly destroyed.
In Donetsk, Ukraine continued to push South of Bakhmut with minor advances through the month. Russia launched a major assault upon Avdiivka, using the largest concentration of forces seen since the initial invasion, with the intent of surrounding the town. There were some minor Russian advances to both the North and South West of Avdiivka, with the highest losses of armour in the war to date. The offensive continues at high intensity as of writing.
In Zaporizhzhia, the grind continued South of Robotyne with little change of the front. In Melitopol, partisans reportedly destroyed a train carrying ammunition along with 150m of railway. Ukraine struck Berdyansk airport, reportedly destroying nine helicopters.
In Kherson, there were Russian milblogger reports Poyma and parts of Pischanivka (on the left bank of the Dnipro) were temporarily captured by Ukraine. As of writing there is no supporting evidence, beyond Ukraine establishing positions on the island to the North. Similar events occurred at Krynsky further to the East, with Russian sources claiming Ukraine retains a presence in the village. At this stage there is a marked increase in Ukrainian activity on the left bank of the Dnipro, but nothing that constitutes a sustained offensive.
In the Black Sea, there were reports the Russian patrol ship Pavel Derzhavin and the cruise missile carrier Buyan were struck by new types of Ukrainian drones in or near Sevastopol harbour, though no open-source evidence is available to confirm such.
In Russia, the “Freedom of Russia Legion” launched raids in Starosyle and Terebreno, Belgorod Oblast, as well as Lugovoi, Bryansk Oblast.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, Russia increased the tempo of its offensive, however there were no changes of note to the front. An airport in Russia-controlled Luhansk was struck with missiles, with five helicopters reportedly destroyed.
In Donetsk, Ukraine continued to push South of Bakhmut with minor advances through the month. Russia launched a major assault upon Avdiivka, using the largest concentration of forces seen since the initial invasion, with the intent of surrounding the town. There were some minor Russian advances to both the North and South West of Avdiivka, with the highest losses of armour in the war to date. The offensive continues at high intensity as of writing.
In Zaporizhzhia, the grind continued South of Robotyne with little change of the front. In Melitopol, partisans reportedly destroyed a train carrying ammunition along with 150m of railway. Ukraine struck Berdyansk airport, reportedly destroying nine helicopters.
In Kherson, there were Russian milblogger reports Poyma and parts of Pischanivka (on the left bank of the Dnipro) were temporarily captured by Ukraine. As of writing there is no supporting evidence, beyond Ukraine establishing positions on the island to the North. Similar events occurred at Krynsky further to the East, with Russian sources claiming Ukraine retains a presence in the village. At this stage there is a marked increase in Ukrainian activity on the left bank of the Dnipro, but nothing that constitutes a sustained offensive.
In the Black Sea, there were reports the Russian patrol ship Pavel Derzhavin and the cruise missile carrier Buyan were struck by new types of Ukrainian drones in or near Sevastopol harbour, though no open-source evidence is available to confirm such.
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Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, believes that the situation at the front has reached a stalemate, when neither side can advance because they are technologically equipped at the same level. The general says the situation reminds him of the First World War events.
Source: Zaluzhnyi in an interview with The Economist this week
Details: Ukraine has managed to advance only 17 kilometres for five months of counteroffensive. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east "to take a town six by six kilometres".
Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign, Zaluzhnyi said the battlefield reminded him of a major conflict that happened a century ago.
Quote: "Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate… There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough."
Details: The general believes that a powerful technological leap is needed to break the stalemate.
The counteroffensive’s course undermined Western expectations that Ukraine could use it to prove the war's unwinnable nature and thus change Vladimir Putin's calculus, forcing the Russian president to the negotiating table.
It also undermined General Zaluzhnyi's assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops.
"That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war," Zaluzhnyi noted. But that doesn't concern in Russia, as life there is cheap and Putin focuses on the First and Second World Wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions of people.
The army of the Ukrainian standard should advance with a speed of 30 kilometres per day, breaking through the Russian defence lines.
"If you look at NATO’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again," General Zaluzhnyi said sarcastically.
Instead, Zaluzhnyi watched as his troops and equipment were getting stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, as his West-supplied equipment was fired upon by Russian artillery and drones.
The Economist emphasised that the same happened on the main offensive front, in the south, where newly created and inexperienced brigade immediately faced problems – despite the fact that they were equipped with modern Western equipment.
"First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades," Zaluzhnyi said.
When these changes did not bring any results, the commander-in-chief ordered his staff to find a book he had once seen as a student at a military academy in Ukraine. It was entitled Breaching Fortified Defence Lines and published in 1941 by Soviet Major General P. S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the First World War.
"And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor," Zaluzhnyi shared.
The general said this thesis was confirmed when he visited the front in Avdiivka, where Russia had recently advanced several hundred metres in a few weeks, transferring its two armies there.
"On our monitor screens the day I was there we saw 140 Russian machines ablaze—destroyed within four hours of coming within firing range of our artillery," the general told The Economist. "First-person view" drones were chasing those who were fleeing. These drones are remote-controlled and with explosive charges, which their operators simply crashed into the enemy.
The same can be seen when Ukrainian troops try to advance.
Zaluzhnyi describes a battlefield where modern sensors can detect any concentration of forces, and modern high-precision weapons can destroy it.
Quote: "The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/si ... skbar&ei=5
Source: Zaluzhnyi in an interview with The Economist this week
Details: Ukraine has managed to advance only 17 kilometres for five months of counteroffensive. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east "to take a town six by six kilometres".
Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign, Zaluzhnyi said the battlefield reminded him of a major conflict that happened a century ago.
Quote: "Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate… There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough."
Details: The general believes that a powerful technological leap is needed to break the stalemate.
The counteroffensive’s course undermined Western expectations that Ukraine could use it to prove the war's unwinnable nature and thus change Vladimir Putin's calculus, forcing the Russian president to the negotiating table.
It also undermined General Zaluzhnyi's assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops.
"That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war," Zaluzhnyi noted. But that doesn't concern in Russia, as life there is cheap and Putin focuses on the First and Second World Wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions of people.
The army of the Ukrainian standard should advance with a speed of 30 kilometres per day, breaking through the Russian defence lines.
"If you look at NATO’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again," General Zaluzhnyi said sarcastically.
Instead, Zaluzhnyi watched as his troops and equipment were getting stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, as his West-supplied equipment was fired upon by Russian artillery and drones.
The Economist emphasised that the same happened on the main offensive front, in the south, where newly created and inexperienced brigade immediately faced problems – despite the fact that they were equipped with modern Western equipment.
"First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades," Zaluzhnyi said.
When these changes did not bring any results, the commander-in-chief ordered his staff to find a book he had once seen as a student at a military academy in Ukraine. It was entitled Breaching Fortified Defence Lines and published in 1941 by Soviet Major General P. S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the First World War.
"And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor," Zaluzhnyi shared.
The general said this thesis was confirmed when he visited the front in Avdiivka, where Russia had recently advanced several hundred metres in a few weeks, transferring its two armies there.
"On our monitor screens the day I was there we saw 140 Russian machines ablaze—destroyed within four hours of coming within firing range of our artillery," the general told The Economist. "First-person view" drones were chasing those who were fleeing. These drones are remote-controlled and with explosive charges, which their operators simply crashed into the enemy.
The same can be seen when Ukrainian troops try to advance.
Zaluzhnyi describes a battlefield where modern sensors can detect any concentration of forces, and modern high-precision weapons can destroy it.
Quote: "The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/si ... skbar&ei=5
- Prahok
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End of Month 21 of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the grind continues as the mud returns, reducing mechanised actions for all.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, the Russian offensive continued with no material change to the front-line over the month.
In Donetsk, the focus remains upon Avdiivka as Russia poured substantial resources into the offensive. Ground was taken to the North during the month, albeit at high cost. Avdiivka remains in Ukrainian hands however the threat of supply lines being cut increased during the month. Ukrainian forces broke through the 2014 line of control near Horlivka, taking control of several tactical positions on heights, though there is little evidence to suggest this constitutes a new offensive.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no material changes to the front over the month.
In Kherson, Ukraine continued infiltrating the left bank of the Dnieper with infantry, taking the village of Krysky and ferrying a limited amount of armour to the combat zone. Additional incursions were made, notably further to the West. Russian units in the area remain too weak to push back the Ukrainian advance, however the inability to adequately supply a large force (any potential pontoon across the Dnieper is within tube artillery range) limits the amount of power Ukraine can bring to bear.
In the Crimea, Ukrainian launched a missile attack upon the Kerch Shipyard, severely damaging the Karakurt-class corvette “Askold”. Two small Russian landing ships were attacked by sea drones in the port of Chernomorske, with both vessels reportedly sunk.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, the Russian offensive continued with no material change to the front-line over the month.
In Donetsk, the focus remains upon Avdiivka as Russia poured substantial resources into the offensive. Ground was taken to the North during the month, albeit at high cost. Avdiivka remains in Ukrainian hands however the threat of supply lines being cut increased during the month. Ukrainian forces broke through the 2014 line of control near Horlivka, taking control of several tactical positions on heights, though there is little evidence to suggest this constitutes a new offensive.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no material changes to the front over the month.
In Kherson, Ukraine continued infiltrating the left bank of the Dnieper with infantry, taking the village of Krysky and ferrying a limited amount of armour to the combat zone. Additional incursions were made, notably further to the West. Russian units in the area remain too weak to push back the Ukrainian advance, however the inability to adequately supply a large force (any potential pontoon across the Dnieper is within tube artillery range) limits the amount of power Ukraine can bring to bear.
In the Crimea, Ukrainian launched a missile attack upon the Kerch Shipyard, severely damaging the Karakurt-class corvette “Askold”. Two small Russian landing ships were attacked by sea drones in the port of Chernomorske, with both vessels reportedly sunk.
The Fox nutter at it again
Pentagon threatens Americans over Ukraine – Tucker Carlson
Fund Ukraine or your children will have to fight Russia, X host claims Congress was told
Pentagon threatens Americans over Ukraine – Tucker Carlson
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reportedly told members of Congress that unless they approve more funding to Ukraine, Americans will be sent to fight Russia directly, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson said on Thursday.
According to Carlson, Austin spoke at a classified briefing for members of the House of Representatives on Wednesday, and at one point told members that “we’ll send your uncles, cousins and sons to fight Russia” unless Kiev gets the $60 billion in aid requested by the White House.
“The Biden administration is openly threatening Americans over Ukraine,” said Carlson said on X (formerly Twitter), summarizing Austin’s message as “Pay the oligarchs or we’ll kill your kids.”
“He really said this?” asked X owner Elon Musk.
“He really did. Confirmed,” Carlson replied.
Carlson was by far the most popular host of an evening talk show on cable TV when Fox News mysteriously chose to part ways with him in April. He has since speculated that its corporate owners “really didn’t like” some of his coverage that challenged official narratives. In May, he launched his own show on Musk’s platform in a format similar to his long-form interviews for Fox.
On Tuesday, his guest was Congressman Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican opposed to sending any more money to Ukraine – on account of the US being too heavily in debt.
“How could Washington possibly send tens of billions more to sleazy oligarchs in Ukraine now that the whole enterprise has been revealed as a fruitless, corrupt and incredibly destructive disaster?” Carlson wondered in the introduction to that interview.
The US Congress has approved over $120 billion worth of aid to Kiev since the conflict with Russia escalated in February 2022, in the form of weapons and ammunition coming from the Pentagon’s stockpiles as well as cash payments to the Ukrainian government.
That money has mostly run out at this point, and the White House has asked for $60 billion more – choosing to bundle it with aid for Israel, weapons for Taiwan and “border security.” Some Republicans in both the House and the Senate have refused to go along, however. GOP senators stormed out of their briefing on Wednesday and later voted against advancing the aid package.
Meanwhile, Republican chairs of the Foreign Affairs, Armed Services and Intelligence committees in the House of Representatives have embraced the White House talking points in a memo aiming to persuade their party members to back the Ukraine funding bill, according to Axios.
https://www.rt.com/news/588708-tucker-c ... ne-threat/
Pentagon threatens Americans over Ukraine – Tucker Carlson
Fund Ukraine or your children will have to fight Russia, X host claims Congress was told
Pentagon threatens Americans over Ukraine – Tucker Carlson
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reportedly told members of Congress that unless they approve more funding to Ukraine, Americans will be sent to fight Russia directly, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson said on Thursday.
According to Carlson, Austin spoke at a classified briefing for members of the House of Representatives on Wednesday, and at one point told members that “we’ll send your uncles, cousins and sons to fight Russia” unless Kiev gets the $60 billion in aid requested by the White House.
“The Biden administration is openly threatening Americans over Ukraine,” said Carlson said on X (formerly Twitter), summarizing Austin’s message as “Pay the oligarchs or we’ll kill your kids.”
“He really said this?” asked X owner Elon Musk.
“He really did. Confirmed,” Carlson replied.
Carlson was by far the most popular host of an evening talk show on cable TV when Fox News mysteriously chose to part ways with him in April. He has since speculated that its corporate owners “really didn’t like” some of his coverage that challenged official narratives. In May, he launched his own show on Musk’s platform in a format similar to his long-form interviews for Fox.
On Tuesday, his guest was Congressman Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican opposed to sending any more money to Ukraine – on account of the US being too heavily in debt.
“How could Washington possibly send tens of billions more to sleazy oligarchs in Ukraine now that the whole enterprise has been revealed as a fruitless, corrupt and incredibly destructive disaster?” Carlson wondered in the introduction to that interview.
The US Congress has approved over $120 billion worth of aid to Kiev since the conflict with Russia escalated in February 2022, in the form of weapons and ammunition coming from the Pentagon’s stockpiles as well as cash payments to the Ukrainian government.
That money has mostly run out at this point, and the White House has asked for $60 billion more – choosing to bundle it with aid for Israel, weapons for Taiwan and “border security.” Some Republicans in both the House and the Senate have refused to go along, however. GOP senators stormed out of their briefing on Wednesday and later voted against advancing the aid package.
Meanwhile, Republican chairs of the Foreign Affairs, Armed Services and Intelligence committees in the House of Representatives have embraced the White House talking points in a memo aiming to persuade their party members to back the Ukraine funding bill, according to Axios.
https://www.rt.com/news/588708-tucker-c ... ne-threat/
- Bong Burgundy
- Where Did All the People Go?
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This was an interesting listen yesterday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001t2z4
The start of Ukraine’s counter-offensive against occupying Russian forces was hailed as the breakthrough moment of the war so far. Now six months on, we ask what happened?
The Secretary General of NATO has said we should be ‘prepared for bad news’ and the White House has warned that the US is running out of time and money to fund the war.
In this week's Briefing Room with David Aaronovitch we find out why things haven’t progressed as hoped and how much Ukraine’s key backers still support the war.
Joining David to discuss are:
Shashank Joshi - Defence Editor at The Economist
Michael Clarke - Professor of Defence studies and Specialist Advisor to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy
Karin Von Hippel - Director General, Royal United Services Institute
Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer - Executive Board member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German foreign policy think tank based in Berlin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001t2z4
The start of Ukraine’s counter-offensive against occupying Russian forces was hailed as the breakthrough moment of the war so far. Now six months on, we ask what happened?
The Secretary General of NATO has said we should be ‘prepared for bad news’ and the White House has warned that the US is running out of time and money to fund the war.
In this week's Briefing Room with David Aaronovitch we find out why things haven’t progressed as hoped and how much Ukraine’s key backers still support the war.
Joining David to discuss are:
Shashank Joshi - Defence Editor at The Economist
Michael Clarke - Professor of Defence studies and Specialist Advisor to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy
Karin Von Hippel - Director General, Royal United Services Institute
Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer - Executive Board member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German foreign policy think tank based in Berlin
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Bringing the news. You stay classy, nas, Cambodia.
- Mike Farce
- I have Cheap Mobile Internet
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- Prahok
- I Am Losing It All to the Internet
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A week past the end of Month 22 of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the Russians are firmly back on the offensive.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, there were no significant changes to the front-line, though Russian offensive actions intensified.
In Donetsk, Russia made some minor advances West of Bakhmut and around Avdiivka, though the latter remains under Ukrainian control. After almost two years of fighting, Marinka was taken by Russian forces.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no significant changes to the front line.
In Kherson, Russian Major General Vladimir Vasilyevich was reportedly killed by a mine. Russian lost three Su-24s in one day as Ukraine reportedly moved a Patriot missile battery closer to the front. There were no significant changes to the front line.
In the Crimea, a Ukrainian missile strike on Saki Airbase was reported. The Ukrainians use Storm Shadow missiles to sink the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk whilst it was berthed at Feodosia. The blast was large enough to sink a Russian naval training ship berthed nearby (it is speculated the Novocherkassk had a full cargo of ammunition).
In Russia a train carrying aviation and standard fuel was blown up inside a 19km tunnel linking Russia with China in Buryatia. The following day, a train also carrying aviation fuel on a secondary line in Buryatia suffered the same fate, this time whilst travelling over a long bridge. The extent of disruption of logistics between China/North Korea and Western Russia is uncertain.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, there were no significant changes to the front-line, though Russian offensive actions intensified.
In Donetsk, Russia made some minor advances West of Bakhmut and around Avdiivka, though the latter remains under Ukrainian control. After almost two years of fighting, Marinka was taken by Russian forces.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no significant changes to the front line.
In Kherson, Russian Major General Vladimir Vasilyevich was reportedly killed by a mine. Russian lost three Su-24s in one day as Ukraine reportedly moved a Patriot missile battery closer to the front. There were no significant changes to the front line.
In the Crimea, a Ukrainian missile strike on Saki Airbase was reported. The Ukrainians use Storm Shadow missiles to sink the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk whilst it was berthed at Feodosia. The blast was large enough to sink a Russian naval training ship berthed nearby (it is speculated the Novocherkassk had a full cargo of ammunition).
In Russia a train carrying aviation and standard fuel was blown up inside a 19km tunnel linking Russia with China in Buryatia. The following day, a train also carrying aviation fuel on a secondary line in Buryatia suffered the same fate, this time whilst travelling over a long bridge. The extent of disruption of logistics between China/North Korea and Western Russia is uncertain.
...After 2+8 years of this fracas, one would hope that people happy to report about dead Russian generals, or enjoy such videos might finally accept the reality: all of this simply doesn’t matter. The Russians still have enough generals to staff two entire divisions just with them; moreover, they still have many more troops and these are fighting. What’s worse: for weeks already, the rate of their (claimed) daily losses is significantly lower than the rate of their (assessed) newly trained reservists. Means: they’re all the time sending yet more troops to the frontline.
To Ukrainian luck, the country also has neighbours its government (and the media, and private persons) did not manage to put off (at least not yet). For example: Bucharest (Rumania) is accelerating the construction of a highway to the border with Ukraine. This is running something like from the capitol to Buzau, Forcsani, Bacau, Pascani, to Siret – i.e. parallel to the western border of Moldova. Tragic is that this is not really going to help that much, because one simply can’t haul as much stuff by truck as one could per train. Not to talk about ships. Still, and strangely enough, there are no reports anything of similar kind happening along the coast: for example, about expansion of the railway line over the Danube and down to the Bulgaria and Turkey – which would help increase Ukrainian grain exports from the Odesa area. Apparently, somebody there has concluded this for unnecessary?
The Russians are diligently constructing, too. Foremost that new railway line from Rostov via Taganrog to Staromarivka and Volnovakha to Mariupol and then to Melitopol. Ukrainians are lately targeting the construction site in the Staromarivka area with M142s and M270s. Additionally, on 6 January, Ukrainian special forces blew up the incomplete railway bridge on the new Russian railway line at Hranitne.
AIR WAR
The ‘biggest’ news of the last few days was the appearance of North Korean-made ballistic missiles… What’s known about them? According to what came out of official Kyiv and Washington by now, these are said to be designated the Hwasong-11G or KN-23, which is solid-fuel-powered, weighting around 3,500kg (7,500lbs) on launch, and closely resembling the Russian-made Iskander missiles (principal differences are the slightly wider diameter of the North Korean missile, then the different nozzles, internal electrical windings and few other details). One was deployed on 30 December 2023 (‘hit an empty field’), and ‘several’ on 2 January 2024 (these seem to have hit something because Americans say ‘results are still being assessed’). All were fired against Kharkiv (where at least two people were killed) and the Zaporizhzhya areas: two of major Ukrainian cities still not protected by US-made PAC-2/3 SAM-sites. KN-23s have a range of around 900km but no: regardless what some say, Kn-23s are not ‘akin to US-made MGM-140 ATACMs’. The Kn-23 has a CEP of around 100 metres – if provided by satellite guidance. If relying on older, instrumental navigation system (INS) only, then around 200 metres. Means: its far less precise than the US weapon.
Gauging by different videos of the last few days, there are now certainly different models of MPK/UMPK glide bombs, with minor differences in their construction – atop of some having guidance systems, and other still lacking it. The Russians are also in the process of receiving improved Shaheed LPGMs from Iran: one variant should be jet-powered, another should be carrying additional weapons (not only its main, internal warhead).
During the afternoon of 4 January, Ukraine hit back by striking the Saky Air Base, in western Crimea, SAM-sites in Dzhankoi and Yevpatoriya, the port of Sevastopol, and the Kerch Bridge, and then a major Russian headquarters in Novofedorovka. Reportedly, up to 23 high-ranking Russian officers were killed. This strike was followed by at least one wave of UAVs that targeted not only the occupied Crimea, but also the Belgorod region.
During the night from 6 to 7 January, the Russians released Shaheds LPGMs over Ukraine only: the PSU claimed 21 as shot down.
Early on 8 January, the Russians run their third round of this winter’s missile campaign. A total of 59 missiles and LPGMs were detected and the following claimed:
Shaheed LPGMs: 8 out of 8 claimed shot down
- Kinzhal: 0 out of 4 claimed shot down
- Kh-101/555: 18 out of 24 claimed shot down
The Russians also released:
- 8 Kh-22
- 6 Iskander-Ms, and
- 2 Kh-31Ps.
Targets were military facilities and military-production facilities again.
The last night, Ukrainians have deployed UAVs to hit the Engels AB, and one of oil-storage sites in the Oriol region (Orelnefteprodukt).
Ah yes, and: France is in the process of delivering 85 additional SCALP-EG missiles to Ukraine.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Yes, fighting is reported along the entire frontline – and that for weeks already.
Why?
Because the Russians are falling for their own mythology about ‘Russian superiority in winter warfare’ – happily accepted and spread in the West, too. And then not only by different of Western Experten, but by hordes of Pudding-fans as well. Correspondingly, they’re attacking in the Synkivka area on Lyman Pershi and towards Kupyansk, from Kislovka area towards Kupyansk, and from Kuzemovka in direction of Borova. Further south, they’re attacking from Kremina in direction of Lyman, from Soledar in direction of Siversk, and from Bakhmut in direction of Slovyansk and Konstantynovka.
Why am I reporting nothing about this? Because, and as tragic as this is for the troops involved, and regardless of fierce fighting for Lyman Pershi, Yahidne and Novoselivske (or, better said: what’s left of these villages), in grand total there is actually nothing to report: for months already, and despite continuous fighting, neither side is making any kind of progress. The Russians have troops and lots of armoured vehicles, but also problems with command and communication; Ukrainians have problems with command and less troops, but enough firepower to smash any Russian attack. Or at least to recover any ground they might have lost. Overall, no matter how much is what side claiming about attacking and capturing, in grand total, there’s next to no advance.
It is a little bit different in the Bakhmut area. In the last few weeks, the Russians have pushed north-west of the ruined town and pushed Ukrainians back to Bohdanivka. Turther south, they’re attacking into the forest north of Klishchivka, with some local success only, so far.
In the Avdiivka area, Ukrainians have launched several local counterattacks, the last few days. For example, two days ago, they pushed the Russians away from Stepove to the railway berm, and in the south they have recovered a strip of terrain east of the town.
Official Kyiv is still trying to deny or ignore this fact, but the Russians have meanwhile secured all of Mariinka and pushed further west and south. Sure, the town was completely demolished and the Russians have bleed the DPR-’Army’ to death in the process, but: Mariinka is now under their control.
In turn, early this month Ukrainians counterattacked further south, from Novomyhailivka in south-eastern direction and pushed the Russians back. Means not much in grand total, but: in this way both the old railway line to Mariupol (interrupted since the start of the war) and the new one remain well within range of Ukrainian artillery and multiple rocket launch systems like M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.
Yes, and for example, back in late December, the Russians launched several attacks between Noroprokopivka and Verbove (Robotyne area, southern Zaporizhzhya). Yes, some of these have managed to breach forward Ukrainian lines; Ukrainian troops were killed and captured (or captured and then killed, as so often). But, meanwhile, the 82nd Airborne has counterattacked and – with support of M142 and M270 multiple rocket launchers that destroyed about a dozen of Russian guns – not only recovered most of the lost terrain, but wedged itself into the Russian trench system connecting Hills 161, 162 and 166.
Finally: Dnipro… yes, Ukrainian Marines claim to have repelled no less than eight additional Russian counterattacks in the Oleshyk and Krymky areas – over the last 36 hours alone. An entire battalion of the VDV commanded by Col Ospanov should’ve been smashed in the process: indeed, along reports in the Russian social media, the Russians in that area have lost up to 90% of their combat vehicles, meanwhile. But, they’re still counterattacking.
Bottom line: yup, currently, this is just another episode in the war of attrition.
Tom Cooper
To Ukrainian luck, the country also has neighbours its government (and the media, and private persons) did not manage to put off (at least not yet). For example: Bucharest (Rumania) is accelerating the construction of a highway to the border with Ukraine. This is running something like from the capitol to Buzau, Forcsani, Bacau, Pascani, to Siret – i.e. parallel to the western border of Moldova. Tragic is that this is not really going to help that much, because one simply can’t haul as much stuff by truck as one could per train. Not to talk about ships. Still, and strangely enough, there are no reports anything of similar kind happening along the coast: for example, about expansion of the railway line over the Danube and down to the Bulgaria and Turkey – which would help increase Ukrainian grain exports from the Odesa area. Apparently, somebody there has concluded this for unnecessary?
The Russians are diligently constructing, too. Foremost that new railway line from Rostov via Taganrog to Staromarivka and Volnovakha to Mariupol and then to Melitopol. Ukrainians are lately targeting the construction site in the Staromarivka area with M142s and M270s. Additionally, on 6 January, Ukrainian special forces blew up the incomplete railway bridge on the new Russian railway line at Hranitne.
AIR WAR
The ‘biggest’ news of the last few days was the appearance of North Korean-made ballistic missiles… What’s known about them? According to what came out of official Kyiv and Washington by now, these are said to be designated the Hwasong-11G or KN-23, which is solid-fuel-powered, weighting around 3,500kg (7,500lbs) on launch, and closely resembling the Russian-made Iskander missiles (principal differences are the slightly wider diameter of the North Korean missile, then the different nozzles, internal electrical windings and few other details). One was deployed on 30 December 2023 (‘hit an empty field’), and ‘several’ on 2 January 2024 (these seem to have hit something because Americans say ‘results are still being assessed’). All were fired against Kharkiv (where at least two people were killed) and the Zaporizhzhya areas: two of major Ukrainian cities still not protected by US-made PAC-2/3 SAM-sites. KN-23s have a range of around 900km but no: regardless what some say, Kn-23s are not ‘akin to US-made MGM-140 ATACMs’. The Kn-23 has a CEP of around 100 metres – if provided by satellite guidance. If relying on older, instrumental navigation system (INS) only, then around 200 metres. Means: its far less precise than the US weapon.
Gauging by different videos of the last few days, there are now certainly different models of MPK/UMPK glide bombs, with minor differences in their construction – atop of some having guidance systems, and other still lacking it. The Russians are also in the process of receiving improved Shaheed LPGMs from Iran: one variant should be jet-powered, another should be carrying additional weapons (not only its main, internal warhead).
During the afternoon of 4 January, Ukraine hit back by striking the Saky Air Base, in western Crimea, SAM-sites in Dzhankoi and Yevpatoriya, the port of Sevastopol, and the Kerch Bridge, and then a major Russian headquarters in Novofedorovka. Reportedly, up to 23 high-ranking Russian officers were killed. This strike was followed by at least one wave of UAVs that targeted not only the occupied Crimea, but also the Belgorod region.
During the night from 6 to 7 January, the Russians released Shaheds LPGMs over Ukraine only: the PSU claimed 21 as shot down.
Early on 8 January, the Russians run their third round of this winter’s missile campaign. A total of 59 missiles and LPGMs were detected and the following claimed:
Shaheed LPGMs: 8 out of 8 claimed shot down
- Kinzhal: 0 out of 4 claimed shot down
- Kh-101/555: 18 out of 24 claimed shot down
The Russians also released:
- 8 Kh-22
- 6 Iskander-Ms, and
- 2 Kh-31Ps.
Targets were military facilities and military-production facilities again.
The last night, Ukrainians have deployed UAVs to hit the Engels AB, and one of oil-storage sites in the Oriol region (Orelnefteprodukt).
Ah yes, and: France is in the process of delivering 85 additional SCALP-EG missiles to Ukraine.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Yes, fighting is reported along the entire frontline – and that for weeks already.
Why?
Because the Russians are falling for their own mythology about ‘Russian superiority in winter warfare’ – happily accepted and spread in the West, too. And then not only by different of Western Experten, but by hordes of Pudding-fans as well. Correspondingly, they’re attacking in the Synkivka area on Lyman Pershi and towards Kupyansk, from Kislovka area towards Kupyansk, and from Kuzemovka in direction of Borova. Further south, they’re attacking from Kremina in direction of Lyman, from Soledar in direction of Siversk, and from Bakhmut in direction of Slovyansk and Konstantynovka.
Why am I reporting nothing about this? Because, and as tragic as this is for the troops involved, and regardless of fierce fighting for Lyman Pershi, Yahidne and Novoselivske (or, better said: what’s left of these villages), in grand total there is actually nothing to report: for months already, and despite continuous fighting, neither side is making any kind of progress. The Russians have troops and lots of armoured vehicles, but also problems with command and communication; Ukrainians have problems with command and less troops, but enough firepower to smash any Russian attack. Or at least to recover any ground they might have lost. Overall, no matter how much is what side claiming about attacking and capturing, in grand total, there’s next to no advance.
It is a little bit different in the Bakhmut area. In the last few weeks, the Russians have pushed north-west of the ruined town and pushed Ukrainians back to Bohdanivka. Turther south, they’re attacking into the forest north of Klishchivka, with some local success only, so far.
In the Avdiivka area, Ukrainians have launched several local counterattacks, the last few days. For example, two days ago, they pushed the Russians away from Stepove to the railway berm, and in the south they have recovered a strip of terrain east of the town.
Official Kyiv is still trying to deny or ignore this fact, but the Russians have meanwhile secured all of Mariinka and pushed further west and south. Sure, the town was completely demolished and the Russians have bleed the DPR-’Army’ to death in the process, but: Mariinka is now under their control.
In turn, early this month Ukrainians counterattacked further south, from Novomyhailivka in south-eastern direction and pushed the Russians back. Means not much in grand total, but: in this way both the old railway line to Mariupol (interrupted since the start of the war) and the new one remain well within range of Ukrainian artillery and multiple rocket launch systems like M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.
Yes, and for example, back in late December, the Russians launched several attacks between Noroprokopivka and Verbove (Robotyne area, southern Zaporizhzhya). Yes, some of these have managed to breach forward Ukrainian lines; Ukrainian troops were killed and captured (or captured and then killed, as so often). But, meanwhile, the 82nd Airborne has counterattacked and – with support of M142 and M270 multiple rocket launchers that destroyed about a dozen of Russian guns – not only recovered most of the lost terrain, but wedged itself into the Russian trench system connecting Hills 161, 162 and 166.
Finally: Dnipro… yes, Ukrainian Marines claim to have repelled no less than eight additional Russian counterattacks in the Oleshyk and Krymky areas – over the last 36 hours alone. An entire battalion of the VDV commanded by Col Ospanov should’ve been smashed in the process: indeed, along reports in the Russian social media, the Russians in that area have lost up to 90% of their combat vehicles, meanwhile. But, they’re still counterattacking.
Bottom line: yup, currently, this is just another episode in the war of attrition.
Tom Cooper
Ukraine’s military has shot down two of Russia’s command planes, in one of the most disastrous days for the Kremlin’s air power since the start of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s commander in chief, said his air force had destroyed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an Il-22 control centre plane. Both were flying above the Sea of Azov on Sunday when they were hit at 9.10pm local time.
The A-50, which detects air defences and coordinates targets for Russian jets, crashed instantly, killing its crew. The badly damaged Il-22 appears to have made an emergency landing at an airfield in Anapa, Russia.
It is unclear how Ukraine managed to target and shoot down the planes. One theory is that a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery – supplied by the US – was used. This, however, would involve moving the system close to the frontline where it could be detected.
Russian officials said they have “no information” about what exactly happened. Pro-Kremlin bloggers suggested the planes were hit by friendly fire or even shot down by a team of British SAS operatives using surface-to-air missiles.
Whatever the cause, the incident is a blow for Russia’s aviation, and a morale boost for Ukraine’s armed forces. Kyiv’s counter-offensive last year failed and in recent months Russia has launched a wave of attacks across the east, along a frozen frontline, seeking to regain the initiative.
According to the UK’s Ministry of Defence, the Kremlin has only six working A-50s in service. Each plane costs $330m to build. Last February partisans in Belarus attacked another A-50 while it sat on an airbase near Minsk. It is unclear how much damage they caused.
Since last year Ukraine has systematically degraded Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, targeting radar stations and other installations. It bombed the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in the port of Sevastopol and has forced naval vessels to relocate to safer harbours.
Kyiv now appears to be challenging Russia’s domination of the Sea of Azov, which includes the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, seized in 2022. In a statement on Monday, Zaluzhnyi said two Russian planes were destroyed in what he called “an excellently planned and conducted operation” in the south of the country.
Ukraine’s air force spokesperson, Yurii Ihnat, said that the Il-22 had been damaged beyond repair. He added that the A-50 spy plane was “the priority target for us”. An unconfirmed image on social media showed the Il-22’s tail section, apparently pitted with shrapnel damage.
Russia has suffered a series of embarrassing setbacks to its ageing Soviet-era air fleet in recent weeks. Last week, Ukraine’s intelligence agencies said they were behind an attack on an Su-24 jet, parked at an airbase outside the Russian city of Chelyabinsk. It was burned down. A teenager was later arrested.
In December Russia’s own air defences shot down a Russian Su-25 jet. Earlier the same month Ukraine destroyed an Su-24M bomber.
Ukrainian commentators reacted with glee to the news, which dominated social media channels on Monday. Illia Ponomarenko, the former defence correspondent for the Kyiv Independent newspaper, wrote simply: “Confirmed by the Ukrainian command. The biggest air kill of the war so far.”
Ukraine’s air force playfully hinted that there was more to come. It posted a graphic of the two downed planes, with the words: “Who did this?”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... or-kremlin
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s commander in chief, said his air force had destroyed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an Il-22 control centre plane. Both were flying above the Sea of Azov on Sunday when they were hit at 9.10pm local time.
The A-50, which detects air defences and coordinates targets for Russian jets, crashed instantly, killing its crew. The badly damaged Il-22 appears to have made an emergency landing at an airfield in Anapa, Russia.
It is unclear how Ukraine managed to target and shoot down the planes. One theory is that a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery – supplied by the US – was used. This, however, would involve moving the system close to the frontline where it could be detected.
Russian officials said they have “no information” about what exactly happened. Pro-Kremlin bloggers suggested the planes were hit by friendly fire or even shot down by a team of British SAS operatives using surface-to-air missiles.
Whatever the cause, the incident is a blow for Russia’s aviation, and a morale boost for Ukraine’s armed forces. Kyiv’s counter-offensive last year failed and in recent months Russia has launched a wave of attacks across the east, along a frozen frontline, seeking to regain the initiative.
According to the UK’s Ministry of Defence, the Kremlin has only six working A-50s in service. Each plane costs $330m to build. Last February partisans in Belarus attacked another A-50 while it sat on an airbase near Minsk. It is unclear how much damage they caused.
Since last year Ukraine has systematically degraded Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, targeting radar stations and other installations. It bombed the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in the port of Sevastopol and has forced naval vessels to relocate to safer harbours.
Kyiv now appears to be challenging Russia’s domination of the Sea of Azov, which includes the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, seized in 2022. In a statement on Monday, Zaluzhnyi said two Russian planes were destroyed in what he called “an excellently planned and conducted operation” in the south of the country.
Ukraine’s air force spokesperson, Yurii Ihnat, said that the Il-22 had been damaged beyond repair. He added that the A-50 spy plane was “the priority target for us”. An unconfirmed image on social media showed the Il-22’s tail section, apparently pitted with shrapnel damage.
Russia has suffered a series of embarrassing setbacks to its ageing Soviet-era air fleet in recent weeks. Last week, Ukraine’s intelligence agencies said they were behind an attack on an Su-24 jet, parked at an airbase outside the Russian city of Chelyabinsk. It was burned down. A teenager was later arrested.
In December Russia’s own air defences shot down a Russian Su-25 jet. Earlier the same month Ukraine destroyed an Su-24M bomber.
Ukrainian commentators reacted with glee to the news, which dominated social media channels on Monday. Illia Ponomarenko, the former defence correspondent for the Kyiv Independent newspaper, wrote simply: “Confirmed by the Ukrainian command. The biggest air kill of the war so far.”
Ukraine’s air force playfully hinted that there was more to come. It posted a graphic of the two downed planes, with the words: “Who did this?”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... or-kremlin
- Prahok
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None of the systems Ukraine is known to possess has the range to hit those aircraft, and even if it did the A-50U should be able to detect said missile early enough to move out of range.Nerd wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:50 amIt is unclear how Ukraine managed to target and shoot down the planes.
The boards are awash with speculation however it could well be a friendly-fire incident.
@prahok have you heard anything reported on going-on in Chechnya and a few other 'stans' in the Caucasus?Prahok wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:16 amNone of the systems Ukraine is known to possess has the range to hit those aircraft, and even if it did the A-50U should be able to detect said missile early enough to move out of range.Nerd wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:50 amIt is unclear how Ukraine managed to target and shoot down the planes.
The boards are awash with speculation however it could well be a friendly-fire incident.
https://rumble.com/v46iwfr-russian-mili ... rning.html
Reports suggest protestors setting fire to military posts and Russians moving troops in to quell unrest.
- Prahok
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No, but it is possible. There is a Chechen unit fighting on the side of the Ukrainians.Nerd wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:57 amReports suggest protestors setting fire to military posts and Russians moving troops in to quell unrest.
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End of Month 23 of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the Russian Winter offensive grinds on with minimal change to the front line despite significant commitment of armour and aviation.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, there were no significant changes to the front line. Russia continued to commit significant armour to the assault the village of Synkyvka, though the village remains under Ukrainian control.
In Donetsk, Russia made some advances West of Bakhmut, taking the village of Kromohve. The heavy commitments of Russian forces to the assaults on Avdiivka continued throughout the month with little change to the front line.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no significant changes to the front line. Russia appears to be focusing its efforts on reversing Ukrainian gains around Robotyne.
In Kherson, Ukraine retains its bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper, with Krynky a focus of Russian efforts.
Over the Azov Sea, there are reports a Russian A-50U AWACS was destroyed and an Il22-M command & control aircraft hit. How these aircraft were struck so far behind the front lines is uncertain as none of Ukraine’s known land-based surface to air systems have such range.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Luhansk, there were no significant changes to the front line. Russia continued to commit significant armour to the assault the village of Synkyvka, though the village remains under Ukrainian control.
In Donetsk, Russia made some advances West of Bakhmut, taking the village of Kromohve. The heavy commitments of Russian forces to the assaults on Avdiivka continued throughout the month with little change to the front line.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were no significant changes to the front line. Russia appears to be focusing its efforts on reversing Ukrainian gains around Robotyne.
In Kherson, Ukraine retains its bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper, with Krynky a focus of Russian efforts.
Over the Azov Sea, there are reports a Russian A-50U AWACS was destroyed and an Il22-M command & control aircraft hit. How these aircraft were struck so far behind the front lines is uncertain as none of Ukraine’s known land-based surface to air systems have such range.
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