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Believe it or not, there is a whole other world outside of Cambodia and South East Asia, be it people or politics, frustrations or football, this is the place to talk about it.
Postby Nerd (!mJBTmwnmGI) » Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:40 pm
From Tom Cooper
BATTLE OF DONBASS
No matter what is going on anywhere else, Putin and Surovikin continue their efforts to maintain initiative in the Donbass, and especially in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Correspondingly, multiple videos surfaced shown the Russian trains hauling heavy equipment and yet more personnel to Ukraine, the last week.
Kupyansk-Svatove… On 21 December, forces of the 92nd Mech, Kastus Kalinovski Regiment, and Omega and Khartia Battalions punched through the Russian lines and secured Podkuychansk. This relatively minor advance caused the Russians to rush almost the entire 4th and 47th Guards Tank Divisions from Svatove to the frontline, and to — reportedly — withdraw their local field headquarters from that town to Luhansk. Reports along which Ukrainians liberated Kryvoshiyivka and/or Kolomyichykha at the same time, proved all wrong, though.
Kremina….Further south, between 21 and 26 December, Ukrainians — spearheaded by the 25th Airborne — have crossed the P-66 highway at multiple points in the area between Ploshchanka and Zhytliva (that’s south of Svatove and north of Kremina). With this, some Ukrainians began claiming that ‘Kremina is practically ours’. Well, sorry: not that quick: so far there is no confirmation for Ukrainian troops managing to reach reaching any of additional villages, nearby. On the contrary, the VSRF run a local counterattack somewhere in the Kremina area, necessitating the 95th Airborne to re-deploy some of its assets and hit back in force.
Gunners of the 95th Airborne as seen near the frontline in late November.
Soledar….The last week, the Russians did their utmost to complete the conquest of Yakovlivka, and punch the frontline of the 10th Mountain Brigade. Since 24 December, the latter — reinforced by elements of the 17th Tank Brigade — launched several local counterattacks, claiming to have recovered some of positions, but AFAIK, Yakolivka is meanwhile completely under the Russian control. As next, Wagner launched attacks from Yakovlivka on the northern Soledar, combining these with attacks from Nova Kamenka and Bakhmutskove.
Bakhmut… the last week or so, the Russians brought in reinforcements to the area of the petrol station south of Pidhorodne and then attempted punching from there along the M-03 highway, in north-western direction, and into northern Bakhmut. Without any kind of success. In turn, Ukrainians exploited the opportunity to drive the Russians out of the easternmost outskirts of the town, which is why the troops of the 54th Mech were then able to take videos of themselves inside a captured Russian position. On the southern side, Wagner PMC and the 58th Motor Rifle Brigade VSRF are back into southern Opytne, and their fans are claiming that the 59th Motor Brigade, ZSU, lost 185 troops killed and wounded — mostly from its self-propelled artillery group, and the reconnaissance company. Gauging by releases of the GenStab-U, the convicts and the VSRF are suffering losses of 400–600 troops — killed, wounded etc. — in this area alone, every single day. Considering videos of this kind, or like this one…. well, no surprise…
A view from the other side of the frontline (including the presence of TOS-1s in the Bakhmut area):
Horlivka-Donetsk area… The Russians spent the last week attacking at almost the full width of this sector of the frontline, from Niu York in the north, via Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, Opytne and Vodiane, to Pisky and Nevelske. AFAIK, without any positive results. Similar is valid for their attacks on Krasnohorivka, Pobeda, Novomykhaliivka, all the way down to the Vuhledar area.
The Vuhledar-Pavlivka area is something like the best example for incompetence of Putin and Surovikin: as first, they squandered the re-built 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade while failing to secure Pavlivka, and only then — few days ago — did they send the 36th Motor Rifle to attack Vuhledar from south-east… What a surprise the latter was beaten back with quite a heavy loss.
…ah yes: and some of the Russian media is hinting that T-14 Armata main battle tanks are about to become involved in fighting…
…ah yes: and some of the Russian media is hinting that T-14 Armata main battle tanks are about to become involved in fighting…
Main battle tanks are becoming obsolete with the rapid tech advance in drones, too expensive, too bulky, too slow, and too many casualties if one gets taken out
Postby Nerd (!mJBTmwnmGI) » Sun Jan 01, 2023 5:26 pm
Ukrainian sniper claims a kill at 2710m.
Could be a record, as the claim for longer shots are always disputed- top 3-5 at least.
The shot was fired from a McMillan Tac 50 rifle, apparently at a Russian manning an artllery position. The sniper was from the 73rd Naval Centre for Special Forces.
End of Week 45 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the festive season was alive with Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Russia undertook large scale bombing of cities in the region over the week, with Kyiv specifically targeted on New Year’s Eve. 69 missiles were launched on the 29th alone, and whilst the vast majority were downed, several made it through Ukrainian air defences to hit their targets (primarily civilian power & water infrastructure).
In Belarus, an S-300 missile, most likely from Ukraine’s air defence, landed on Belarusian territory which drew complaints from Belarus but no action. Reports emerged during the week that Russia depleted artillery ammunition from Belarusian stores.
In Luhansk, Ukraine continues to take territory as it slowly advances on Svatove and Kremmina.
In Donetsk, there were no substantial changes. After being pushed back from locations near Bakhmut last week, Russia resumed its slow grind towards the city.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were few reported changes, with Russia reportedly taking a village North of Polohy.
Even Putin media acknowledged there was something awry, publicly admiting to 3 deaths.
The Russian MOD stated 63 deaths, however the Russian miliblogger community has numbers closer to the Ukrainian estimate.
It certainly has the miliblogger community wound-up.
Wagner losses in Bakhmut appear far higher yet elicit support from the same community. Perhaps the high number of penal-soldiers in Wagner makes the losses palatable.
End of Week 46 of the Russo-Ukrainian War with an Orthodox Christmas ceasefire called by the Kremlin that was subsequently ignored by both sides. The ground has begun to freeze, however remained sufficiently soft to restrict armoured manoeuvre warfare during the week.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground. Ukrainian forces reportedly heavily mined numerous Northern approaches to Kyiv (primarily forest tracks & backroads) to narrow any potential offensive.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes to the posture of Russian or Belarusian troops. A full mobilisation check was completed which raised concern from Belarusian opposition figures.
In Luhansk, there were few reported changes.
In Donetsk, Russia advanced North East of Bakhmut, taking some key villages, notably Bakhmutske and part of Soledar. This may partly be the result of the Russian Army undertaking parts of the offensive that were previously Wagner. How this effects the defence of Bakhmut should become clearer in the following week, however clearly there is increased pressure on the city. There was little movement elsewhere in Donetsk.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were few reported changes,
In Kherson there were no reported changes.
Backers of the Ukrainian government agreed to supply more effective armoured fighting vehicles with France, Germany and the US all contributing. Whilst modern main battle tanks have yet to be supplied (ex-Soviet MBTs were donated by several countries), the latest vehicles are just one step below. There are reports that the UK is considering sending a small number of Challenger 2 tanks, which would be the first modern NATO-standard main battle tanks supplied to Ukraine.
An interesting clip regarding German reliance on Russian gas.
End of Week 47 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and after just 3 months in charge the overall commander of Russian forces in the War, General Sergei Surovikin, was replaced by Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes to the posture of Russian or Belarusian troops. The leader of the opposition, Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya , is undergoing a trial in absentia on numerous charges.
In Luhansk, there were few reported changes over the week; generally tactically significant only at the local level (primarily Ukrainian advances North & South of Kreminna and North West of Svatove).
In Donetsk, Russian forces pushed Ukraine out of the town of Soledar to the North East of Bakhmut. There are competing claims for credit from the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner PMC (Ukrainian forces reported engaging both in Soledar), emphasizing the importance of the Bakhmut theatre in Russian domestic politics (opinions vary as to the strategic value of Bakhmut once Russia was pushed out of Lyman). There were few other reported changes through the week.
End of Week 49 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and with the closing of Khmer440 this will be the final update. It has been one hell of a shake-up for Europe, however once alternate energy sources were found nerves settled and the level of weaponry provided to Ukraine steadily increased in volume and lethality.
During the week the German government resisted a proposal for countries fielding German built Leopard 2 tanks to transfer to Ukraine, with suggestions they are waiting for the USA to transfer Abrams tanks as well. Poland wishes to provide Leopard 2 tanks and is reportedly placing a request to the German government, though may export them without permission if the request is denied. The French are also considering providing Ukraine with Leclerc main battle tanks, but numbers available are limited. Thus far, only the UK is committed to donating modern NATO-standard tanks, but have very limited stocks of Challenger 2s.
In the West, North and North East there were few changes on the ground. Russia sent in some small groups to attack in Sumy (which were repelled), but nothing in force. The risk of Russian attacks from Belarus down the Western border to cut off supplies are unlikely given the large array of swamps in the area that would funnel any attacking force.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes to the posture of Russian or Belarusian troops. Whilst there is a lot of noise there remains little chance of Belarus joining the war. Were it to happen and things go badly, as they are highly likely to do given the capacity of the Ukrainian forces opposing them, the army may turn on Lukashenko and hence Russia would risk losing Belarus as an ally. This is an enormous risk for Putin, and could effectively end his Ukrainian campaign, and as such is likely to represent a final roll of the dice. Indications are the Kremlin is not at that stage as yet.
In Luhansk, there were few changes reported on the ground. Ukraine is reportedly pressing Kuzemivka, holding the high ground West & possibly North of the town. With the Bradleys coming into the field soon, there may be a large push by Ukraine in this theatre soon to take Svatove and Kreminna.
In Donetsk, there were few changes reported on the ground. Russia reportedly took Klischivka, South of Bakhmut, and may have pushed Ukraine out of the heights to the West. The meat grinder approach in the Bakhmut theatre adopted by Wagner PMC achieved little given the high cost. Bakhmut is still in Ukrainian hands and Wagner PMC has reportedly lost thousands of its penal troops. Wagner is reportedly close to being exhausted of shock troops and Russian regular forces have taken over the offensive in numerous sectors. Even after all this time, the attack on Bakhmut on this scale makes little military sense.
In Zaporizhzhia, there were reports of increased Russian activity, with a limited offensive reported by Russian sources. There has been no corroborating video so the extent of any such actions remains unclear. This is a sector both sides appear relatively quiet on, though a push by Ukraine to Melitopol would split Russian forces and put Crimea at huge risk. Hence the heavy fortification by Russian forces of this front.
In Kherson Oblast there were no reported changes. Not much to add here; the Dnipro is a big river.
Finally, the Moldovan government is discussing joining a broader alliance. It sees remaining neutral a threat to its security. Inclusion in NATO is probably not on the immediate table due to Transnistria, however bilateral alliances with the likes of Romania, the USA and the UK are entirely possible.,
The Russo-Ukrainian war has all the appearance one almighty imperialistic cock-up.
End of Week 49 of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Leopards have been released, with main battle tanks from Germany, the US and France joining those from the UK. There are reports Russia may introduce its T-14 Armata to the battlefield in response. How long before these various systems make it to the front remains to be seen; chances are the Leopards will be seen first.
In the West, North and North East there were no changes on the ground.
In Belarus, there were no reported changes to the posture of Russian or Belarusian troops.
In Luhansk, there were few changes reported on the ground.
In Donetsk, Russian forces made advances North and South of Bakhmut, increasing pressure upon Ukrainian forces defending the city. Whilst Bakhmut remains in Ukrainian hands, the introduction of Russian regular forces in this theatre, replacing Wagner units, appears to be having an impact. Further South, Russia attacked Vuhledar once again though failed to take the strategically important town. For those unaware, Vuhledar is a small town however sits on the edge of high ground that allows Ukrainian tube artillery to strike key Russia supply lines to Southern Ukraine, placing increased strain on the Russian defence of the entire Southern theatre, including Crimea. Hence, unlike Bakhmut, control is strategic.
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian localised offensives the week prior having little impact with the front primarily unchanged.
In Kherson Oblast there were no reported changes. Ukraine undertook a successful raid across the Dnipro, however most activity along this front remains exchange of artillery fire.
Ukraine has it's fair share of experienced deminers, I'm sure, but post war, I expect there will be a greater need for ordnance removal, than living,...