Ukraine
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Objectives?
A narrow bit of Ukraine and separatist areas/republics might be seen as fragile by Moscow. Having a much larger bite at Ukraine territory and then gaining control of the northern coast of the Black sea, even all the way to Moldova/Romania’s border would provide more opportunities to control the Black Sea, and protect their logistics.
It’s a region that’s seen a lot of conflict over the last 150+years. At present, Russian foreign policy has seen them become a bit choked in Black Sea and Baltic areas.
Take the big city, control the surrounding region, resettle large portions of the population, control more of East Ukraine. Make it a sort of no man’s land, where you don’t really care about the residents. It’s a just a buffer zone.
Engage with puppets like Kadyrov, to at least keep other areas to the east, unstable. The Russians can probably rely on his ilk to do their dirtier dirty work, and then turn on him later and set up something more reliable.
All, they need to do is-
Stop losing tanks and other equipment
Stop losing troops
Stop inadvertently sinking their own ships through dodgy electrical work
Boost morale
Avoid Kadyrov enjoying shooting Russian soldiers too much
Fix their logistics to the Ukrainian border
Avoid poising off the neighbours too much
A narrow bit of Ukraine and separatist areas/republics might be seen as fragile by Moscow. Having a much larger bite at Ukraine territory and then gaining control of the northern coast of the Black sea, even all the way to Moldova/Romania’s border would provide more opportunities to control the Black Sea, and protect their logistics.
It’s a region that’s seen a lot of conflict over the last 150+years. At present, Russian foreign policy has seen them become a bit choked in Black Sea and Baltic areas.
Take the big city, control the surrounding region, resettle large portions of the population, control more of East Ukraine. Make it a sort of no man’s land, where you don’t really care about the residents. It’s a just a buffer zone.
Engage with puppets like Kadyrov, to at least keep other areas to the east, unstable. The Russians can probably rely on his ilk to do their dirtier dirty work, and then turn on him later and set up something more reliable.
All, they need to do is-
Stop losing tanks and other equipment
Stop losing troops
Stop inadvertently sinking their own ships through dodgy electrical work
Boost morale
Avoid Kadyrov enjoying shooting Russian soldiers too much
Fix their logistics to the Ukrainian border
Avoid poising off the neighbours too much
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- chkai chgout
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Having lost a third of their forces they may find withdrawal a bit difficult.El Cid wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 12:50 pm
Do you think you know what the Russian objectives are?
Nobody knows what the Russian are doing, so can one really state whether they are fulfilling them or not.
Maybe the objectives aren't just to go into Ukraine and destroy everything and then withdraw in 6 months time.
In the south they only have a single escape route behind their lines now, the M4, which is in missile range.
If they bunk, artillery can reach it.
The Ukes control the border on the road to Belgorod. Maybe the Ukes will not stop at the border and start pounding Belgorod. It is only 35 kms from their positions. There are not many secondary roads to help RFA troops to withdraw. They are isolated now.
If ukraine can build the momentum this summer & well supplied by donor countries its entirely plausible to take back the occupied territories and evict the invaders entirely.
Ukraine has a military force to do it.
All the way ukraine. All the way!
Ukraine has a military force to do it.
All the way ukraine. All the way!
There was once a time when we feared the Russian army was at least the most fearsome armed forces in the world. The last couple of months has shown it’s barely the second best army in Ukraine.
- Sonic1
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Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
You must realise that this is not all of Russia's army, as Putin is restricted to what he can use unless he declares war. When/if he does that, he will have access to 160,000 more troops and more weapons and also countless conscripts but who will have to be trainned before being sent to battle.Guest wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 9:27 pmThere was once a time when we feared the Russian army was at least the most fearsome armed forces in the world. The last couple of months has shown it’s barely the second best army in Ukraine.
What is obvious, tho, is how inept the Russian offensive has been so far, nearly as useless a shambles the US forces are.
The Russian losses are more bewildering.
- Prahok
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It is a conundrum for Putin as whilst declaring war will allow open usage of existing conscripted soldiers, as well as mobilisation of the general populace, the non-use of such soldiers has been a key feature of the Russian public's expectations. There is also the issue of supplying such a large force in the field as supply constraints were a key factor in the withdrawal of Russian forces from the North. The degradation of Russian manpower and supply constraints have likely been compensated by the reduction in the length of the front, which may reduce the pressure regarding sourcing new troops.Dylan Quint wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 4:53 amYou must realise that this is not all of Russia's army, as Putin is restricted to what he can use unless he declares war. When/if he does that, he will have access to 160,000 more troops and more weapons and also countless conscripts but who will have to be trainned before being sent to battle.
What is obvious, tho, is how inept the Russian offensive has been so far, nearly as useless a shambles the US forces are.
The Russian losses are more bewildering.
One supply advantage the Ukrainians have is in terms of the Territorial Defence Units. These units are essentially local reservists, often including combat veterans, who are self-sufficient as far as food and lodging is concerned. It gives Ukraine defensive depth that it can maintain indefinitely in the field with minimal supply support.
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Russia will be content with its gains on southern Ukraine, I speculate this has been the sole objective and the sideshow in the northeast was solely to split Ukraine's ground forces in order to make those gains.
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"Not my circus, not my monkeys" - KiR
- Prahok
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The reported construction of permanent defensive structures along the Southern front, particularly near Kherson, certainly supports the hypothesis that Russia is planning to hold onto what it has gained in that theatre.
- Sonic1
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Any of Russia's gain are only temporary as Ukraine will never give up one inch of it's soil to the invaders. Russia did manage to gain a new Nato neighbor along their largest border. A Finnish general responds to Putin's threats here:
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Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
Don't expect Ukraine to be able to claw back that land. Ukraine has proved to be a staunch defender but reclaiming the large swath of territory over run by Russia will be difficult if not impossible.
A new defensive line looks set to be drawn and heavily controlled by Russia.
A new defensive line looks set to be drawn and heavily controlled by Russia.
- Prahok
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End of Week 12 of the Russo-Ukrainian War which has seen a continuing decline in the pace of territorial exchange.
In the West there were no changes, with no notable movement of Belarus forces.
North there were no changes with continued harassing actions by Russian forces in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.
Around Kharkiv the Ukrainian counter-offensive reportedly reached the Russian border at one point and Russian forces have been pushed back from tube artillery range of the city, effectively ending the Battle of Kharkiv. Several key settlements North and North East of the city are still held by Russian forces, notably Vovchansk.
In the Donbass, Russian forces have made minor progress in their efforts to encircle Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russian assaults from the Izium axis continue to be halted. There have been significant casualties for both sides in this theatre and it continues to be a grind, as it has since the outbreak of the war.
in the South there is reported a conditional surrender of the last Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol effectively bringing an end the Battle of Mariupol. There were no substantive changes along the front-line, though there were continued efforts to disrupt the logistical corridor from Romania to Odessa.
In Moldova, there have been no reported changes in relation to the situation in Transnistria.
In the West there were no changes, with no notable movement of Belarus forces.
North there were no changes with continued harassing actions by Russian forces in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.
Around Kharkiv the Ukrainian counter-offensive reportedly reached the Russian border at one point and Russian forces have been pushed back from tube artillery range of the city, effectively ending the Battle of Kharkiv. Several key settlements North and North East of the city are still held by Russian forces, notably Vovchansk.
In the Donbass, Russian forces have made minor progress in their efforts to encircle Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russian assaults from the Izium axis continue to be halted. There have been significant casualties for both sides in this theatre and it continues to be a grind, as it has since the outbreak of the war.
in the South there is reported a conditional surrender of the last Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol effectively bringing an end the Battle of Mariupol. There were no substantive changes along the front-line, though there were continued efforts to disrupt the logistical corridor from Romania to Odessa.
In Moldova, there have been no reported changes in relation to the situation in Transnistria.
- Sonic1
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Retired Russian Colonel gives frank assessment on Russian state TV. Could be the beginning of a new narrative as Putin needs an off-ramp now. Support for this war or ANY new war is diminishing rapidly in Russia.
Freedom is not a state. It is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau.. Freedom is a continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society.-John Lewis
What, no comment on the surrender of around 250 Ukrainians at Mariupol?
It's a big event.
It's a big event.
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