There are ghost cities in China but not so much as the western media thinks. Many towns that were "ghost cities" lets say in 2015 are now fully occupied as the cities have grown in exponential rates. There are few big (and yes very big) ghost cities that are and will most likely be empty always. These are build middle of nowhere and these are usually those copy cat "Paris", "London" style cities. But there are only few of these.v12 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:04 amYou are addressing a whole range of items.YaTingPom wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:55 pmNot really.
The term “ghost cities” and “abandoned skyscrapers” gets tossed around when referring to the Chinas a lot when in fact it’s all out of date or downright incorrect.
They (China) are not knocking down buildings all over China at all.
The amount of misinformation around when it comes to China is astonishing. It’s no wonder they are kicking everyone’s Arse when it comes to manufacturing and resources.
You can all live in hope that they will get their just desserts but the reality is they are too rich and smart (they are Chinese after all) to be beaten. It’ll cost western governments and institutions billions to fight them.
Wether it could happen here I don’t know. If there’s a world wide crash then yes.
I don’t think they’ll be a crash for another 3 years. COVID rebound will help to kick the can down the road.
*Source. Me. I’m a Asian economist and ducking genius when it comes to Chinas.
Let me start with your "Source". Yep, sources like this always claim "Nothing wrong", it's their nature
Crash only in another 3 years: I don't think so. Crisis do start with a huge blowing up rate of asset values. And that is exactly what we see happening at the moment.
China's (economic) success ?
Maybe there are several major aspects relevant:
- China does not recognize intellectual property, IE copy cats is allowed and maybe even encouraged.
- No proper independent legal system, making "business" more of a gamble than of fair business principles.
- No >50% foreigner company ownerships.
- China labor practices border on organized slave labor, see the large scale "China Projects" in SHV and PP. Let alone the Apple assembly industries in mainland China.
- Centralized government with harsh methods for those disobeying, having little attention for individual human wellbeing/rights.
- Little interest for the environment (there seem to be some 630 coal fueled energy plants being developed, right now), have you ever been to Datong and its surroundings ?
So, yeah, a "success", though at what price ?
Oh, and the China government already told the banks, they do have to accept defaults without consequences on interest payments from Evergrande. Now, and probably in the near future to.
Ghost cities: They are there. The simple fact these exist, does show, that there are other than regular economic principles being used to justify building these cities. Might be party politics or just people with too much shady money. And yep, over time, these cities might fill up, simply because of a growing population. In contrast with most Western EU countries, where there is a huge shortage of houses.
So, I don't consider myself a China specialist, though the above items are certainly worrying from a common sense perspective. Or so to say, what is behind this and when is it going to collapse, since it gives the impression of a Ponzi scheme.
Oh, and the US government debt mechanism is no different......
Nor the "success" of the UAE or Qatar, largely based on slave-labor.
Could Evergrande Happen here?
Korean and Japanese projects are build with loan money from Korea and Japan. Local projects, most of the boreys for example, are built by rich locals and no loan money used. Where chinese projects money come? Who knows?Guest9999 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:19 amFrom watching a few films, I know Lehman Brother's crashed due to bundling, buying, selling, and sometimes holding, a crazy amount of too high loans for properties too few could actually pay for. And that that triggered the crisis of faith that brought world finance to its knees in 2008.
Folks say a collapse at Evergrande, the seller of about 1/20th of the properties in China over the last 5 years, won't destabilize China. Evergrande's $300 billion loan debt isn't that big a deal, and, anyway, the Government will figure a way for it to fail in an orderly fashion. Still, many condo buyers across China and Hong Kong who bought before developments completed will be out of luck.
How about in Cambodia?
Are Borey's and Condo Towers here often built with loans that need/require early sales, or are they normally built only by the very rich, with their own cash sufficient to complete the project?
And,
Are there any single development groups here that so dominate the new Condo, or Borey markets? (construction at Prince Bank's new corporate home, for example, between Monivong and Norodom seems very slow.)
And,
Are their any tentacles of Evergrande in the Cambodia real estate market?
And,
If you own a condo in a nice, completed, Phnom Penh or Sihanoukville building, are you happy, or sad, to learn a new, half-built, huge development a few blocks away will likely never be completed?
I own 10 properties here and I'm happy with them. I live in 2 of those, and rest are rented out. Some are houses that I have built myself (or hired contractor, I cannot build a house), 2 houses in borey and few condo units. I have bough from local developer, singapore developer and hong kong developer.
Prince has +10 projects ongoing in Cambodia and construction works in most of their projects is done extremely fast.
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I think an equivalent in Cambodia could be if Peng Huoth, Chip Mong and Royal Group suddenly and concurrently weren't liquid.
And, another one bites the China dust: Fantasia Holdings becomes Fantasy with USD 206M payback failure.
And another 2 bite the China Dust: Modern Land going down the old-fashioned way and China Properties running out of properties and money.
Approaching a Trillion Dollar of defaults. Just pocket change.
And a story about China Ghost towns: Shenfu, China Ghost towns,.
Feel free to explain, these China Ghost towns don't exist in a superior political system, killing future economic growth by forbidding all what China people want (and kept them quiet), to return to an old-fashioned China. Who did that before: Oops, Mao, forced return to an agricultural society with a couple of million deaths.
Approaching a Trillion Dollar of defaults. Just pocket change.
And a story about China Ghost towns: Shenfu, China Ghost towns,.
Feel free to explain, these China Ghost towns don't exist in a superior political system, killing future economic growth by forbidding all what China people want (and kept them quiet), to return to an old-fashioned China. Who did that before: Oops, Mao, forced return to an agricultural society with a couple of million deaths.
It was closer to 50 million deaths than "a couple of million". According to my Chinese ex wife who grew up under Mao and had researched the subject extensivelyv12 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:53 amAnd another 2 bite the China Dust: Modern Land going down the old-fashioned way and China Properties running out of properties and money.
Approaching a Trillion Dollar of defaults. Just pocket change.
And a story about China Ghost towns: Shenfu, China Ghost towns,.
Feel free to explain, these China Ghost towns don't exist in a superior political system, killing future economic growth by forbidding all what China people want (and kept them quiet), to return to an old-fashioned China. Who did that before: Oops, Mao, forced return to an agricultural society with a couple of million deaths.
Small fry in debt are a totally different thing. But with them too, especially in Siem Reap, I wonder how the pandemic dust will settle come 2023, '24, or '25.
My brother-in-law bought S.R land with a loan, mostly paid it off, and almost sold in 2019. However, deal details made him hesitate to close, and, instead, he 'moved the loan' to a different bank for a cash payout, new motorbike, and deeper debt. He says most of his S.R. friends, 'nouveau middle-class' all, also had banks holding their land titles, and very few payments made since mid-2020.
How soon might land buyers return to Siem Reap? Will they buy from the folks still named on the land titles, or will banks do mass foreclosures and confiscations and sell the land as soon as buyers appear?
And, relevant to the topic, Since 2016, everyone expected Chinese big business to take over Siem Reap. Then 'Resort Casino' talk a few km from Angkor Wat, even when scuttled, only made dreams of Chinese gold piles feel more real. Post pandemic AND post Evergrande, how many years before deep pocket Chinese buyers re-inflate the SR bubble?
My brother-in-law bought S.R land with a loan, mostly paid it off, and almost sold in 2019. However, deal details made him hesitate to close, and, instead, he 'moved the loan' to a different bank for a cash payout, new motorbike, and deeper debt. He says most of his S.R. friends, 'nouveau middle-class' all, also had banks holding their land titles, and very few payments made since mid-2020.
How soon might land buyers return to Siem Reap? Will they buy from the folks still named on the land titles, or will banks do mass foreclosures and confiscations and sell the land as soon as buyers appear?
And, relevant to the topic, Since 2016, everyone expected Chinese big business to take over Siem Reap. Then 'Resort Casino' talk a few km from Angkor Wat, even when scuttled, only made dreams of Chinese gold piles feel more real. Post pandemic AND post Evergrande, how many years before deep pocket Chinese buyers re-inflate the SR bubble?
Buy low, sell high. Just be patient if you don't have solid stuff. IF you have: Sell, sell, sell, sell.
How long will it take the US to default ? Could become easily the falling domino stones, the world is waiting for.
Think about Tesla: They lose money with selling their cars and earn money with selling the virtual CO2 rights. That works, until the other manufacturers catch up electric, and then, Tesla will inevitably crash (and the German Tesla factory will be inherited by VW or so).
How long will it take the US to default ? Could become easily the falling domino stones, the world is waiting for.
Think about Tesla: They lose money with selling their cars and earn money with selling the virtual CO2 rights. That works, until the other manufacturers catch up electric, and then, Tesla will inevitably crash (and the German Tesla factory will be inherited by VW or so).
Just small "pocket money", just like the 1 Trillion upcoming China defaults.logos wrote: ↑Sun Oct 17, 2021 4:18 amIt was closer to 50 million deaths than "a couple of million". According to my Chinese ex wife who grew up under Mao and had researched the subject extensivelyv12 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:53 amAnd another 2 bite the China Dust: Modern Land going down the old-fashioned way and China Properties running out of properties and money.
Approaching a Trillion Dollar of defaults. Just pocket change.
And a story about China Ghost towns: Shenfu, China Ghost towns,.
Feel free to explain, these China Ghost towns don't exist in a superior political system, killing future economic growth by forbidding all what China people want (and kept them quiet), to return to an old-fashioned China. Who did that before: Oops, Mao, forced return to an agricultural society with a couple of million deaths.
CNN. Lol. May as well post Fox News.
“10s of millions of homes empty”
Great headlines. Poor on details.
18 million homes vacant in the US. % wise that’s much more than China.
1.4 billion population vs 360 million.
Yawn. Same old same old.
中国万岁
“10s of millions of homes empty”
Great headlines. Poor on details.
18 million homes vacant in the US. % wise that’s much more than China.
1.4 billion population vs 360 million.
Yawn. Same old same old.
中国万岁
pew, pew, pew, pew!
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Order to delivery time on Landcruiser 300 has blown out to 4 years over here.
6 months for Landcruiser Prado.
3 months for our new NX300. Lexus built the outgoing model on the line for us in Japan, despite the replacement model already being launched in the US.
Unprecedented times in the car biz thanks to the semi conductor shortage and gross underestimation of Covid demand by most manufacturers.
Haha - my money’s on Playboy
From Reuters
Chinese property developers have total outstanding debt of 33.5 trillion yuan ($5.24 trillion), according to Nomura, equivalent to roughly a third of the country's gross domestic product.
Most tied to totally non-scary assets, and far too big for the Government to let fail in any case. But my small mind gets wow'ed by such big numbers.
Chinese property developers have total outstanding debt of 33.5 trillion yuan ($5.24 trillion), according to Nomura, equivalent to roughly a third of the country's gross domestic product.
Most tied to totally non-scary assets, and far too big for the Government to let fail in any case. But my small mind gets wow'ed by such big numbers.
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